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Why Apple Stock Looks Like a Safe Haven After the Midterms
Written by Sam Quirke on November 11, 2026
Key Points
- Apple's relatively restrained AI infrastructure spending could make it more resilient to a slowdown in data center construction.
- Evercore ISI sees potential benefits for Apple if reduced AI infrastructure spending eases memory chip prices.
- Rising memory costs, slowing Services growth, and a premium valuation remain risks despite the stock's resilience.
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For most of 2026, the main knock on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was that it had become a bystander to the AI boom, watching rivals pour fortunes into chips and data centers while it kept its own AI infrastructure spending comparatively restrained. More and more, however, that caution is now being seen as a strength.
While many tech stocks are still reeling from the market-wide sell-off on Nov. 5, Apple shares closed Nov. 10 roughly 2% below the intraday record high they set that day. For a company long written off as an AI also-ran, being suddenly seen as the steady one, while the wider AI trade starts to crack, is an unfamiliar role.
The irony is that the AI-related sell-off followed the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, but it’s those very results that have some of Apple’s most optimistic bulls calling for more gains.
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Is Apple the Best Stock to Own After the Midterms?
The biggest call came from Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, who reiterated his bullish view of Apple after the Democratic sweep of Congress. He called Apple “THE name to keep working when investors want to get defensive,” and his case rests on two very different ideas.
Unlike the hyperscalers and chipmakers pouring billions into data centers, Apple’s earnings engine runs on iPhone pricing, product mix and its Services arm, not on a breakneck buildout of AI infrastructure. If a Democratic Congress makes that buildout slower or costlier, Apple has far less riding on it than most of its peers.
That relative insulation is the heart of the case. Apple could still ride the AI wave through device upgrades, ecosystem lock-in and potentially paid software features; in effect, monetizing its enormous installed base without having to match the AI infrastructure spending of its largest rivals.
The Memory-Cost Twist That Could Help Apple
The other side to Daryanani’s thesis might seem counterintuitive, but it actually makes a ton of sense. It’s well known by now that surging memory prices have been a real drag on Apple throughout 2026, with the company again warning in its latest earnings report that this was likely to keep hurting its gross margins.
Daryanani’s wager is that a slower AI buildout, thanks to the so-called “Blue Wave,” could actually ease that pain. His thinking goes that if data center projects get delayed or blocked, the insatiable demand those projects place on memory chips should cool. The companies hurting so much from the related memory price inflation, Apple chief among them, could watch their costs drift back down. In other words, the same gridlock denting the AI names might quietly hand Apple a margin tailwind.
To be sure, this is a slow-burn benefit rather than an instant one. Apple has locked in some supply and may wait several quarters before cheaper chips reach its margins, and industry forecasts suggest memory prices could stay elevated through much of 2027. But it’s another reason to be more bullish, rather than bearish, on Apple after the midterms.
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Valuation, China and a Margin Squeeze Still Loom
None of this makes Apple bulletproof. Management expects December-quarter gross margins of 45% to 46%, with memory costs, supply constraints and heavy purchase commitments set to keep hurting for a while before any relief shows up.
There are softer spots, too. Apple’s Services growth has been cooling, its prospects in Greater China still carry a nagging question mark despite recent sales growth, and the stock’s valuation leaves little room for error. A Democratic sweep also raises the prospect of tougher congressional scrutiny of big tech, something Apple is no stranger to.
So Is Apple Really the Place to Hide?
For now, the case for Apple as an ideal defensive play is strong in theory, but a little shakier on price. The company is well positioned to grow AI-related revenue through its devices and Services without having to bet the house on data-center construction, and a cooling build-out could hand it a welcome margin reprieve down the line.
The snag is that there may be more short-term pain before that reprieve arrives, and if the wider tech landscape continues to sell off, it will be hard for Apple to remain near highs at its current valuation.
The split across analysts on Wall Street sums it up. While November has already seen Sanford Bernstein lift its price target to $380, matching Evercore’s, there have also been downgrades from the likes of Phillip Securities and DZ Bank. As a hiding place, Apple might make far more sense than most of its peers right now, but as a bargain, it’s asking investors to pay a hefty price for that peace of mind.
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