In all my years at TheoTrade — I have never seen a track record like what Blake built in Year One.
453 winning trades. 460 losing trades. More losses than wins. And still — $14,459.99 net profit on a $5,000 starting account. 24% per month on average. 11 winning months out of 12. Done before lunch every single morning.
Year Two is already running — May at +14.6%, June at –3.5%, net +11% over two months. The losses stay small. The system keeps running exactly as designed.
Today at 2:00 PM ET — Blake opens the books on all of it live. Every month of Year One. Year Two in real time. The full system decoded. Live Q&A at the end where he takes questions directly.
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Let’s face reality: International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) is an ugly name in the tech sector, thanks to modest growth metrics and reduced guidance for the full fiscal year. Naturally, management has kicked its positive framing of the disaster into high gear, insisting that the company still has the appropriate strategy toward artificial intelligence. Unfortunately, that hasn’t really helped the case for IBM stock.
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Over the trailing month, the legacy ticker has dropped more than 21%. As of this writing, the year-to-date performance of IBM stock is over 30% below parity. After suffering one of the worst single-day drops in corporate history, many investors are understandably skeptical about “Big Blue” — especially because the downfall has implications for the broader tech ecosystem.
Further, some traders may have adopted a wait-and-see approach, which anybody can respect. But the problem with this methodology is that, should IBM stock enjoy a contrarian swing higher, those sitting on the fence will likely miss out on the bulk of profits.
Now, you don’t need me to wax poetic about the tech juggernaut. There are so many opinions out there and mine would be just another drop in the bucket. What’s really interesting, though, is the smart money. When you look at how options traders are positioning their exposure to IBM stock, a clearer picture of professional contrarianism begins to emerge.
Specifically, I’d like you to consider the volatility skew of the options chain expiring Sep. 18. Visually speaking, you’ll notice that the skew is weighted heavily toward the right side or the call side. Specifically, peak implied volatility (IV) — or the market’s expectation of future price movement — for out-the-money (OTM) calls stands at 125.64%. On the other end, peak IV for OTM puts only reaches 79.7%.
What does this mean? In simple terms, traders are prioritizing upside convexity over downside protection. Stated differently, the main risk that the smart money sees is that IBM stock could swing higher rather than fall apart. If so, debit-side traders want to make sure they have leverage for this potential upside move; hence the higher demand for OTM calls.
Most people who try options lose money the same way. They don't know the rules. They don't know what to avoid. And they hand their account to Wall Street on a silver platter.
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IBM Stock May be Statistically Signaling for a Bounce Back
Without getting deep into the mathematical weeds, I would argue that the core premise of most equity market analyses is that future market returns stem from dependent variables. In other words, the probability of the future state occurring depends on the current state.
Indeed, this concept represents one of the most assumed — and therefore unchallenged — presuppositions in the market. Instinctively, we know that if a major public security like IBM stock suffers a catastrophic decline, the future outcome will be influenced by this drop. We can also make reasonable assumptions that this future outcome will likely be different than if IBM had instead enjoyed a blistering rise.
What are we saying here? Again, it’s an easily understandable concept: the market responds to whatever has recently happened. Therefore, the future state of the market depends on its current state. This is the heart of Markov theory when applied to the equities market.
Now, even though most folks accept the above presupposition, very few in the financial ecosystem quantify the implication. And this implication is that if we know what the current state of IBM stock is, we can estimate the probability of where the ticker may end up at some future point in time based on past empirical observations.
For example, we know that in the last 10 weeks, IBM stock has only managed to print four up weeks, thus leading to a downward slope. This 4-6-D quant sequence has materialized 45 times since January 2019. Following the flashing of this signal, the forward return over the next 10 weeks typically exceeds that of a random 10-week hold.
Specifically, over the next 10 weeks, bullish traders may expect a distribution between $199 and $232 (assuming a starting price of $206.65). In contrast, a random 10-week hold would likely yield a range between $206 and $211.
Plus, it should be noted that the positive variance between the signal and the random baseline is not perfectly linear. For instance, on week 8 following the flashing of the 4-6-D signal (which coincides with the Sep. 18 expiration date), the median endpoint for IBM stock is around $222.
Bloomberg calls it "a dire shift of fortunes for America" and The Wall Street Journal calls it a "New World Order." Now, Dr. David Eifrig – a 40-year market veteran who traded through Black Monday and has recommended more than a dozen triple-digit winners – warns that you must make one of the most important financial decisions of your lifetime today.
Because we know what we’re looking for and what to reasonably expect based on the above inductive analysis, we can approach the options market with a clear head. If IBM stock at $222 at week 8 is the median outcome, going for aggressive strikes at $230 or $240 would be divorced from established statistical reality.
As such, we may be interested in the 210/220 bull call spread expiring Sep. 18. If IBM stock rises through the second-leg strike at expiration — of which there would be historical precedent — the maximum payout would clock in at 102%.
Mathematically, what’s perhaps most compelling about this particular spread is the breakeven price of $214.95. Right now, Wall Street is assigning a probability of profit of 40.6%. When combined with the 102% max payout, this trade will likely generate a negative expectancy over the long run.
However, keep in mind that the 40.6% odds have been calculated using the Black-Scholes model, which assumes that future market returns stem from independent variables. Because the model assumes a risk-neutral, lognormal environment, it doesn’t take into account how IBM stock dropped to its current price of $206.65. Instead, the framework assumes that IBM will take a random walk from now until Sep. 18.
Respectfully, I dispute the idea that IBM stock will trade along a random walk over the next eight weeks. Instead, as I said earlier, Big Blue currently has a 4-6-D quant structure. Historically speaking, when this signal has flashed over the past several years, it has led to an above-average performance that is not likely to be explained as random chance.
If we continue to follow the logic of my model, of the 45 times that the above signal has flashed, IBM stock has jumped above the $214.95 breakeven price a total of 26 times on week 8. It’s possible, then, that the conditional and observed probability of profit is 57.8%.
Essentially, this calculation may mean that options traders are underpaying for the risk that they would historically absorb under similar conditions. Assuming you believe the validity of my model, that makes IBM stock options a discount — not because I said so but because the data points to the favorable risk distortion.
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As we’re heading into the final month of the summer, I suggest reevaluating your trading progress and what you want to see by the end of the year... or you’ll be left behind and scrambling.
I want to explain one important thing I’ve noticed over the years.
Most traders don’t rely on a single approach forever. As markets change, people naturally look for ways to stay engaged, sharpen their timing, and make the most of different kinds of opportunity when they show up.
That’s where I want Dynamite Day Trading Signals to fit in your arsenal.
This service isn’t about replacing how you already trade.
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You have the chance to become a part of the group that’s sitting on a +300% total profit in the last year. Built from quick, same-day profit wins like these:
56.5% on SPDR S&P 500 Trust (7/2)
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Used alongside your broader trading approach, this kind of same-day structure can help you stay active during the week, reinforce disciplined execution, and add incremental gains without taking on overnight exposure.
If you already understand how we think about risk and structure, this program gives you another way to apply that thinking in real time.
This is your last chance to register for my market briefing today.
And it's your last chance to be among the first to get the name and ticker symbol of a stock I predict could jump 100% or more in the coming weeks.
To learn everything I'll discuss this morning, go here now.
Be well,
Marc Chaikin
Founder, Chaikin Analytics
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AirJoule’s (NASDAQ: AIRJ) deal with Kubota (OTCMKTS: KUBTY) strengthens its commercialization timeline and has its stock price on track for an explosive rally. While small at face value- only two Core systems, the deal accelerates the transition from start-up to active player in infrastructure mar....
U.S. stocks finished mixed, with industrial strength offsetting another pullback in technology leadership. The central tension remains AI spending versus profitability, with investors questioning whether heavy capital commitments can sustain earnings quality. Crude’s decline eased inflation concerns, but semiconductor weakness kept market breadth narrow.
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision is the week’s key risk driver, as investors assess whether policymakers leave room for later rate cuts. A more patient outlook would favor defensives and cash-generative software, while renewed easing confidence could revive growth stocks and cyclicals.
NVIDIA slid as AI spending concerns challenged expectations for durable margins and demand. ASML weakened after reports of Chinese lithography progress, reinforcing the regulatory and competitive overhang across semiconductor equipment. Adobe advanced as investors reassessed its earnings quality following recent IBM-related concerns. Ford gained, with stronger visibility and an Army opportunity supporting upgrades for both Ford and General Motors. Rocket Lab surged after winning a major Space Force contract, improving revenue visibility, and Tyson and JBS rose after the U.S. approved resumed cattle shipments from Mexico.
AirJoule’s (NASDAQ: AIRJ) deal with Kubota (OTCMKTS: KUBTY) strengthens its commercialization timeline and has its stock price on track for an explosive rally. While small at face value- only two Core systems, the deal accelerates the transition from start-up to active player in infrastructure mar...
SpaceX burns roughly $200,000 in fuel per Falcon 9 launch - about $20 million across 100 missions.
One under $5 company's High Altitude Head Start technology could bring that down to $20,000 per launch, or $2 million across 100 missions - a 10X cost advantage.
It is already flying with paying customers, but shares may not stay this cheap once Wall Street notices.
Sector rotation in 2026 has been focused on the technology sector and small-cap stocks. But there’s demonstrable evidence that some investors are shifting from growth to value in the form of dividend stocks. Despite the feeling that the market is volatile, the number of 1% moves in either direction...
As the war in Iran appears to be intensifying once again, the petroleum industry is facing renewed threats to production and supply after months of prior challenges. The result is that crack spreads, which measure the difference between the value of refined products and the cost of the crude oil us...
Gold has surged past $5,300 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecasting $6,000+ by end of 2026. Central banks bought a record 863 tonnes in 2025 alone - and one small-cap explorer in Nevada's Walker Lane Belt may be positioned to benefit.
Sitting 18 miles north of Tonopah in the same district that produced over 15 million ounces at Kinross Gold's Round Mountain Mine, this explorer carries historic drill intercepts of 30 meters at 2.5 g/t gold and surface samples exceeding 100 g/t. With a market cap under $15 million and drills ready to turn in H2 2026, the window may be narrow.
Verizon (NYSE: VZ) is an AI-enabler of first-class quality, and it isn’t getting enough attention. Its fiber optic networks are critical for AI connectivity, spanning all levels of the stack from data centers to devices. While not a semiconductor manufacturer, networker, or model builder, AI data c...
A federal judge just approved a $1.5 billion settlement that puts a substantial legal cost on one source of artificial intelligence training material: pirated books The judge separately ruled that training Claude on lawfully acquired books qualified as fair use. The settlement covers 482,460 works ...
Jason Bodner - a former Wall Street trader who placed trades as large as $1 billion for hedge funds and banks - says an obscure market anomaly he calls the Nasdaq Glitch can detect major stock moves weeks before they happen.
His system recently flashed on a new group of stocks he believes could break out beginning August 14. Past signals preceded gains of 825%, 2,105%, and 4,496%. He's hosting a free briefing on July 29 at 8 p.m. ET to reveal the details, including his top stock pick at no charge.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is in the midst of a rapidly swelling AI bubble that is about to burst. However, this bubble is just the first in a series of explosive events that have this stock price on track to rocket higher in upcoming quarters. The primary driver is growth, underpinned by...
Few software names have been hit as hard by the market's artificial intelligence (AI) anxiety this year as Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ: TEAM). The company behind popular workplace tools Jira and Confluence has seen its shares fall roughly 45% year to date, dragged down by fears that AI coding too...
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) heads into its earnings report this Thursday, July 30, in a position almost nobody would have predicted a few months ago. While much of the technology sector has been battered by recent AI expenditure volatility, Apple has been setting record highs after record highs. And,...
Oil recently surged back above $100 a barrel on the Brent benchmark—the first time it's traded there in two months. The move came after the Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, with Saudi authorities confirming that one vessel was struck and caught fire. The U.S.-Iran ce...
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows reached an astonishing $1 trillion for the first half of 2026 alone, the latest sign that investors everywhere are continuing to lean heavily on these vehicles to simplify their experience and add built-in diversification to their portfolios. Unsurprisingly, the n...
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in worldwide. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, compactors, road reclaimers, forestry machines, cold planers, material handlers, track-type tractors, excavators, telehandlers, motor graders, and pipelayers; compact track, wheel, track-type, backhoe, and skid steer loaders; and related parts and too...
Should I Buy Caterpillar Stock? CAT Bull and Bear Case Explained
These insights were generated using artificial intelligence. They are based on proprietary MarketBeat data, news articles, and custom LLM A.I. algorithms. This analysis of Caterpillar was last updated on Monday, July 20, 2026 at 6:08 PM.
Caterpillar Bull Case
The company reported strong earnings per share of $5.54 for the latest quarter, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations, indicating robust financial performance.
Caterpillar Inc. has shown impressive revenue growth, with a 22.2% increase compared to the same quarter last year, suggesting strong demand for its products.
The current stock price is around $920, reflecting investor confidence and a solid market position in the industrial sector.
The company has a high return on equity of 48.21%, which indicates effective management and profitability relative to shareholder equity.
Caterpillar Inc. recently increased its quarterly dividend to $1.63 per share, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders and a healthy dividend payout ratio of 30.06%.
Caterpillar Bear Case
Insider selling has been notable, with significant shares sold recently, which may raise concerns about the company's future prospects from those who know it best.
The dividend yield is relatively low at 0.7%, which may not attract income-focused investors looking for higher returns from dividends.
Despite strong earnings, the stock price may be perceived as high, leading to potential overvaluation risks in a fluctuating market.
The company operates in cyclical industries, which can be sensitive to economic downturns, potentially impacting future revenue and earnings.
With insiders owning only 0.33% of the company's stock, there may be a lack of alignment between management and shareholder interests, which could affect long-term performance.
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