Neocloud stocks are getting attention for an unusual reason. The trigger centers around the debate over data centers. It’s one thing to suggest that some projects will never get off the ground. It’s another when hyperscalers seek protection for a possible delay at a data center under construction.
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On Sept. 24, Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl Capital, which owns Stack Infrastructure, a developer behind Project Jupiter. Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) wants to be able to defer payments if the data center doesn’t open in 2028 as planned.
The reaction was uneven, though. Nebius rose 6% to $240.86, CoreWeave slipped 0.64% to $86.34, and IREN fell 4% to $45.21. That split matters. The market is paying for proof, not promises.
The perception is that any delay helps any neocloud company with live capacity. The fundamentals depend on pricing, balance sheets, and how much capacity is actually online.
Oracle says Project Jupiter is still on schedule. Stack Infrastructure says the notice doesn’t change the financial commitments to the project. But the backdrop is messy.
An Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) natural gas pipeline meant to supply the site was pushed back almost six months, to Feb. 1, 2027, after the New Mexico State Land Office repeatedly denied permits for its route.
Financing is another pressure point. The project runs through a special purpose vehicle, with Blue Owl (NYSE: OWL) equity and an $18 billion loan from roughly 20 banks. If Oracle defers payments, the developer’s collections could slip while construction and financing costs keep coming.
Jupiter is not a small project. It’s designed for up to 2.45 gigawatts and is a flagship of the Stargate initiative with OpenAI and SoftBank. S&P also cut Oracle’s credit rating to BBB- in July, one notch above junk.
That’s why this notice matters beyond New Mexico. The debate has shifted from how much demand exists to how fast capacity arrives. Oracle’s remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion last quarter. But backlog only counts once the power is on.
Nebius Shows Neocloud Pricing Power
Nebius led the group higher. Pricing is a big part of the story. The company plans 17% to 21% price increases across its H100 through B300 GPU capacity on Oct. 1, its second hike in three months. BNP Paribas Exane also upgraded Nebius to Outperform, lifting its target to $399 from $260.
Technically, Nebius has the cleanest setup of the three. Earlier this month, it traded above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day near $156. Its RSI sat near 57, in neutral territory. That leaves room to run.
The level to watch is the June peak. Nebius hit an all-time high of $299.86 on June 22. A break above that confirms the uptrend. A stall there raises double-top risk.
CoreWeave Faces a Stubborn Neocloud Chart
CoreWeave has plenty of reasons to benefit from a capacity squeeze. JPMorgan upgraded it to Overweight Thursday with a $125 target, citing stronger demand and higher compute prices. Still, the stock barely budged.
The company is already charging more. CoreWeave raised prices about 25% in July and is signing some shorter-term contracts at higher rates. Its short-dated Q3 contracts came in around $40 million per megawatt.
The chart hasn’t caught up. Last week, CoreWeave traded below its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Its July death cross remains intact. Key resistance sits near $94.50. Bulls need a close above that level to change the narrative.
IREN Has Power but Needs More Revenue
IREN was Thursday’s laggard. Rothschild initiated coverage at Neutral with a $40 target, flagging the capital gap between IREN’s 5-gigawatt power base and its actual AI revenue.
That gap is the whole debate. IREN’s operating AI cloud capacity was about 40 megawatts at the end of June, against roughly 5 gigawatts in grid connection agreements. Its Horizon 1 facility has been delivered to and accepted by Microsoft, which is a step in the right direction.
On the chart, IREN is range-bound. Support sits near $40.20, with resistance near $50.30. The stock remains well below its $76.87 all-time high from November 2025. A push through $50 would show investors believe the buildout is on track.
Neocloud Valuations Face a Bigger Test
Here’s the risk. If Jupiter’s troubles reflect financing strain, neoclouds are more exposed, not less.
Rothschild Redburn put Sell ratings on CoreWeave and Nebius this week. Its thesis doesn’t need AI demand to collapse. It only needs GPU rental economics to normalize as supply grows and big customers build their own.
Debt is the pressure point. CoreWeave pays about 8.3% on its debt, versus 2.3% for Nebius and 1.7% for IREN. But IREN’s debt is largely convertibles, which dilute shareholders. CoreWeave also just upsized a $4.2 billion convertible note offering.
Short sellers are circling. Short interest recently stood near 23% for Nebius, 12.8% for CoreWeave, and 24% for IREN. That can fuel squeezes. It can also speed up declines.
Macro doesn’t help. The 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level since 2004. Capital-hungry growth stocks rarely thrive when borrowing costs climb.
The group has unwound before. In July, Nebius dropped 13% in a single session amid broad de-risking across the neocloud trade. If the story shifts from “delays create scarcity” to “delays expose leverage,” it could happen again. Yahoo Finance
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Oracle’s notice is a reminder that capacity on paper isn’t capacity online. That’s a real edge for neoclouds with GPUs already running.
But investors should separate the headline from the fundamentals. Nebius has the pricing and the chart. CoreWeave has the backlog but needs to clear resistance. IREN has the power but must prove the revenue. The scarcity premium is real. Whether it lasts depends on balance sheets, not press releases.
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Conference play is upon us, and the spreads are squeezing or flipping outright as teams start hitting the road. The market knows conventional wisdom often doesn't apply when 100,000 hostile fans are screaming at a 20-year-old. Andy Staples is 20-12 on the season after a 6-4 Week 3, and below is a snapshot of his Week 4 predictions based on odds from Polymarket.
Texas at Tennessee (+5.5), Total: 55.5
It's a suspiciously tight spread for the No. 1 team in the country, but the market remembers Texas struggling in SEC road games last year, with losses at Florida and Georgia and a pair of overtime escapes. Neyland Stadium will be rocking even with a noon kickoff, so don't be shocked if the Volunteers keep it close or win outright.
Andy's pick: Tennessee +5.5
Iowa at Michigan (-5.5), Total: 37.5
Michigan has essentially played two Iowa games already, squeaking past Western Michigan before smothering Oklahoma's offense. So does that prepare the Wolverines for the real thing? Or will the pure, uncut Hawkeyes drag them into hell?
Andy's pick: Michigan -5.5
Staples has eight more picks on the board, including whether Ole Miss can avoid a classic hangover spot at Florida, what South Carolina-Alabama could reveal about the Crimson Tide, and a surprising call on Oregon at USC.
Pete Nakos' Thursday insider notebook is back with behind-the-scenes intel from coaches and industry sources on where college football stands entering Week 4.
Opposing coaches get candid on what's gone wrong with Oklahoma's offense ahead of its trip to Georgia, lay out the keys to Ole Miss at Florida (plus the latest on a game-time decision for the Gators), and intel on which Power Four head coaches could be on the move.
Get the rest of the Week 4 intel, including what opposing coaches see in Michigan's offense and injury updates on key players at Oklahoma and TCU.
Lawmakers filed more than 35 amendments to the Protect College Sports Act this week, and two of them get to the heart of the sport's biggest fight: if player pay is capped, shouldn't coaches' pay be capped too?
One amendment from Republicans would lock in a hard cap on athlete compensation, while a Democratic proposal would put a strict limit on what coaches can make in every sport.
A final Senate vote could come within days with overwhelming support, but a major timing problem in the House could leave the bill stuck until after the midterms.
Miss State AD Zac Selmon hears the rumors about MSU QB Kamario Taylor playing for a big-spending blueblood next season. But make no mistake. Mississippi State intends to keep its star.
The College Football Playoff committee will include a new conference-based data point in its evaluations of teams beginning in late November, according to ESPN.
Miss State AD Zac Selmon hears the rumors about MSU QB Kamario Taylor playing for a big-spending blueblood next season. But make no mistake. Mississippi State intends to keep its star.
The College Football Playoff committee will include a new conference-based data point in its evaluations of teams beginning in late November, according to ESPN.
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