A spaceship drifts too close to a black hole. Light bends. Time warps. Weird things happen. Then it crosses the event horizon (the point of no return)... and vanishes.
That's where I believe we are in this bull market, right now.
16 years of easy money, insane gains and tech billionaires richer than God have created a gaping black hole of risk.
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Now we're past the safe zone, approaching the event horizon... the last wild rush before the immutable laws of the universe rip the whole thing apart. Don't just take my word for it.
MarketWatch says the rally's "moving more toward melt-up mode."
Contrarian macrostrategist David Hunter believes the S&P could be headed for a parabolic 8000, before a brutal 80% drop.
Even Ray Dalio (a man who's tracked 500 years of debt cycles) warns the U.S. is heading into "very, very dark times."
Is your portfolio equipped to survive such a wild ride?
Honestly, probably not. There's a good chance you'll get dragged into the abyss, just like millions of others.
And don't look to Washington to ride to your rescue. It's too late for that. We were promised a big fix, but it never arrived.
Instead, the debts are bigger, the deficit is fatter, and core inflation is ever higher.
This market's like a house with fresh paint and termites chewing through the foundations... it looks strong from the street with stocks at all-time highs, but beneath the surface it's been hollowed out.
Analyst Michael Lebowitz sees "striking similarities to the dot-com melt-up of 1999" and so do I.
Back then, rate cuts acted like fuel on an already raging fire... predictably, the market got too hot and flamed out:
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It's happening all over again. President Trump and Scott Bessent have pressured the Fed into cutting rates, with more to come.
But history tells us that by the time desperate cuts arrive, the damage is already done. The bubble is too big. Too unstoppable. And the outcome, in my view, is inevitable.
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I don't say that as a casual observer.
For nearly 30 years I've built a career helping regular investors prepare for dramatic shifts in the financial system... calling Fannie and Freddie's implosion, America's lost AAA credit rating and the Covid inflation shock long before the headlines.
And now, I'm doing everything I can to prepare you for the coming breaking point. Most folks will be left holding the bag, loaded up on the wrong stocks at the wrong time.
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Today’s editorial pick for you
McDonald’s (MCD) Stock Has Become the Golden Opportunity You Can’t Ignore
Posted On Apr 22, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
For many years, McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) has suffered the scourge of all things that were wrong with the fast-food industry. Amid a broader shift that began with millennials and continues with Gen Z, consumers have consistently gravitated toward convenient but healthier alternatives. However, with the Iran conflict, along with rising economic challenges, MCD stock suddenly looks like a very smart bit of speculation.
Table of Contents
Fundamentally, one of the more exciting elements of the Golden Arches is the fruits of the company’s product innovation. Following the pilot program of the beverage-focused CosMc’s concept, McDonald’s recently announced a major strategic undertaking. Rather than just building more standalone cafes, the fast-food giant is integrating CosMc’s tech and menu into its core locations.
Specifically, McDonald’s is launching its Refreshers and crafted soda line nationwide, including its high-margin items such as its dirty sodas and energy drink collaborations. Financially, specialty beverages carry significantly higher margins than food products like hamburgers. By capturing a slice of the multi-billion-dollar industry, which is currently dominated by Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), MCD stock could benefit from a sizable boost in same-store sales.
Such an optimistic outlook is supported by McDonald’s massive and loyal consumer base. Further, with digital transactions increasingly ramping up across the discretionary retail sector, the fast-food giant has taken great steps to integrate the latest tech. This has resulted in a conspicuous pickup in systemwide sales in key markets.
What’s really fascinating amid the K-shaped economic recovery is McDonald’s ability to capture market share from consumers facing recent financial headwinds. Because of the increasing pressure both economically and geopolitically, many patrons who would rather eat at fast-casual restaurants like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) are trading down to McDonald’s.
Even better, because of the investments the company has made, the trade down doesn’t feel that much of a compromise. With MCD stock in a slog over the past year, now may be an intriguing time to consider opening a long-side position. Additionally, an intriguing market signal has made this prospect all the more enticing.
Using the Inductive Approach to Trade MCD Stock
Obviously, the whole idea of estimating what may happen in the future is to profit from the potential move before it happens. It doesn’t really do you much good to read a story waxing poetic about what did happen — unless you’re into that sort of thing. Of course, forecasting comes with a certain degree of risk because no one knows exactly what will happen.
To help narrow down the odds, traders use induction, which is a fancy term for pattern recognition. An inductive methodology relies on the uniformity of nature or the assumption that the future will resemble the past. It’s not a perfect, foolproof approach, but when dealing with the unknown future, it’s the best (and only) philosophy we have.
For example, technical analysis is highly inductive. If you see a head-and-shoulders pattern, you have been taught that there is a high probability that the target security will fall in value. Apparently, people have studied head and shoulders — and supposedly, a great many of these patterns end up in bearish trends.
However, no one (to my knowledge) has quantified these claims. We don’t know what the success ratio is for these technical patterns. Further, no arbiter exists to objectively define what these patterns are and when they are valid.
To help get around this dilemma, I prefer to use a discretized inductive analysis. We take the infinite realm of the scalar signal and convert this data into discretized signals. In this manner, we’re quantifying what a signal actually means and using that quantification to calculate a forward distribution of likely events in the future.
There’s no really elegant way of expressing discretization, so let me cut to the chase. What I’m doing is conditioning data associated with the last 10 weeks to find out what is likely to happen in the next 10 weeks.
It’s no different than comparing a baseball player’s career batting average to his batting average when there are runners in scoring position (RISP). If there’s a favorable discrepancy between his aggregate average and his RISP average, that’s conditioned data that can be used to one’s advantage.
Turning Theory into Action for McDonald’s Stock
Let’s move into some practical applications, particularly for options traders. Using a dataset going back to January 2019, if you were to hold McDonald’s stock at random for any 10-week period, you would statistically come out a winner due to the security’s upward bias.
Specifically, out of 362 rolling 10-week sequences, 228 of them have risen above the starting price. That gives MCD stock an exceedance ratio of 63%, which is fantastic. It’s also somewhat expected, given the blue-chip status and reliable nature of the Golden Arches.
Drilling into the details, if we assume a starting price of $301.84 (Tuesday’s close), MCD stock — using an inductive calculation — would be expected on average between $298 and $315. Probability density would likely peak at $305, meaning that random speculation over the aforementioned period should more often than not lead to a modest return.
Of course, we’re not interested in trading MCD stock randomly; instead, we’re specifically targeting the current signal to see if there’s a meaningful advantage over the aggregate baseline. In the last 10 weeks, MCD has printed only three up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. Under this 3-7-D condition, the 10-week forward distribution noticeably shifts toward the positive end of the profitability axis.
Nominally, if we assume the same $301.84 starting price but under 3-7-D conditions, MCD stock will likely range between $290 and $360. Probability density is projected to peak at $330, which is a considerable improvement over the aggregate forecast.
By now, you know where I’m going with this. We can use the leverage of options to enhance the potential return of this tempting trade.
I really can’t help but gravitate toward the idea of the 325/330 bull call spread expiring June 18. We’re betting that McDonald’s stock rises through the $330 strike at expiration. If it does, the maximum payout comes out to a stunning 410%. Also, keep in mind that the net cost you pay per spread is only $98.
Bear in mind that induction has its risks. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: just because you see a thousand white swans does not mean all swans are white. Still, when you consider the tendency of MCD stock rising to $330 over a 10-week period under 3-7-D conditions and the very reasonable net cost of the bull spread, I can only repeat the corporate slogan.
I’m lovin’ it.
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DISCLAIMER: Stocks and options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the stocks and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell stocks or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in the linked report. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in the linked report are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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Former Senior NIAID Official Indicted for Concealing Federal Records During COVID-19 Pandemic
Greenbelt, Maryland– A former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) employee is facing indictment for his role in a scheme to evade Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests in connection with COVID-19 research grants.
David M. Morens, 78, of Chester, Maryland, is charged with conspiracy against the United States; destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in federal investigations; concealment, removal, or mutilation of records; and aiding and abetting. Morens served as a senior advisor in NIAID’s Office of the Director from 2006 through 2022.
Kelly O. Hayes, U.S. Attorney for the District of Maryland, announced the indictment with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche; FBI Director Kash Patel; Special Agent in Charge Jimmy Paul, FBI Baltimore Field Office; and Special Agent in Charge Marcus L. Sykes, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General (HHS-OIG).
“These allegations represent a profound abuse of trust at a time when the American people needed it most—during the height of a global pandemic,” Blanche said. “As alleged in the indictment, Dr. Morens and his co-conspirators deliberately concealed information and falsified records in an effort to suppress alternative theories regarding the origins of COVID-19. Government officials have a solemn duty to provide honest, well-grounded facts and advice in service of the public interest—not to advance their own personal or ideological agendas.”
“Circumventing records protocols with the intention of avoiding transparency is something that will not be tolerated by this FBI,” Patel said. “Not only did Morens allegedly engage in the illegal obfuscation of his communications, but he received kickbacks for doing so. If you have engaged in activity conspiring against the United States, we will not stop until you face justice.”
“When public officials deliberately circumvent the law to hide their communications from the public, they undermine the public’s trust and the integrity of our institutions. This was especially true during the COVID-19 pandemic when transparency was needed most,” Hayes said. “Our office will continue to hold accountable those who seek to evade their legal obligations for their own gain.”
“As a public official, Morens was held to a higher standard and expected to dutifully follow the law,” Paul said. “Morens allegedly violated the law by circumventing the required processes for retaining official documents.”
“Public officials who disregard their legal obligations undermine the transparency that keeps our federal programs strong. The deliberate mishandling and concealment of records in a federal investigation is not just a breach of duty, it is a betrayal of public trust,” Sykes said. “HHS-OIG remains committed to working with our law enforcement partners to ensure that anyone who seeks to evade the law is held fully accountable.”
As a senior advisor, Morens counseled Senior NIAID Official 1 and other senior-level NIAID staff on senior-level policies, developed recommendations and solutions for issues impacting the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and wrote and edited manuscripts. Morens also provided guidance and expertise to senior staff members on epidemiological studies and issues related to infectious disease planning and management.
Additionally, Morens gathered information from grantees and others in the scientific community to establish facts about the nature of COVID-19. This enabled Morens to understand NIH and NIAID’s historical activities in coronavirus research, assist in formulating policy and procedures, and brief Senior NIAID Official 1 so he could then relay information to the President of the United States, Congress, and the public.
According to the indictment, Morens, Co-Conspirator 1, Co-Conspirator 2, and others conspired during the COVID-19 pandemic to defraud and commit several offenses against the United States after NIH terminated Co-Conspirator 1’s grant. NIH terminated the grant, Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence, based on allegations that COVID-19 emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in Wuhan, China. NIAID awarded the grant to Company #1 and Co-Conspirator 1, who made a subaward to the WIV.
Following the termination, Morens and Co-Conspirator 2 pledged to help Co-Conspirator 1 restore the termination of the bat coronavirus grant and counter the narrative that COVID-19 leaked from a lab. In anticipation that their communications would be requested through a FOIA Request, Morens, Co-Conspirator 1, and Co-Conspirator 2 agreed in writing to intentionally hide their communications, from public view, by corresponding using Morens’s personal Gmail account, rather than his official NIH email account.
The indictment alleges that the conspirators used Morens’s personal Gmail account to exchange non-public NIH information; correspond about their efforts to influence NIH to fund Company #1; exchange edits to drafts of letters addressed to NIH leadership for Company #1 and Co-Conspirator 1; and “back-channel” information to Senior NIAID Official 1. According to the indictment, each of these matters fell within Morens’s role as senior advisor and constituted federal records that needed to be created, maintained, and exchanged on government systems.
Additionally, the indictment further alleges that Morens and Co-Conspirator 1 conspired to pay illegal gratuities. The indictment states that Co-Conspirator 1 gifted Morens wine for his “behind-the-scenes shenanigans,” and arranged for its delivery to Morens’s residence in Maryland. Morens then allegedly identified an official act that he could perform to “deserve” the gift, which was a scientific commentary in a prominent medical journal advocating that COVID-19 had natural origins. The indictment further alleges that Co-Conspirator 1 suggested he would provide Morens with additional things of value, including meals at Michelin-starred restaurants in Paris, New York, and Washington, D.C.
An indictment is not a finding of guilt. Individuals charged by indictment are presumed innocent until proven guilty at a later criminal proceeding.
If convicted, Morens faces up to five years in prison for conspiracy against the United States, 20 years for each count of destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in federal investigations, and three years for each count of concealment, removal, or mutilation of records. Actual sentences for federal crimes are typically less than the maximum penalties. A federal district judge determines sentencing after considering the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.
U.S. Attorney Hayes commended the FBI and HHS-OIG for their work in the investigation. Ms. Hayes also thanked Assistant U.S. Attorneys Joseph R. Baldwin and Bijon A. Mostoufi who are prosecuting the federal case.