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Dear Reader,
SpaceX went public in June with enormous fanfare.
The stock soared …
Then reality hit.
In just two weeks, it shed nearly $1 trillion in market value.
It's now down significantly from its IPO-day high.
This isn't unusual.
Cerebras dropped 42% in six weeks.
Uber fell 40% in six months.
Meta lost nearly half its value in three months.
Robinhood collapsed 85% in five months.
Duolingo dropped 55% within seven months.
The data is clear …
Buying the hype on day 1 is usually a losing strategy.
The only consistent winners are the people who got in before the company went public.
I've found a way to do exactly that with a major AI company preparing for its IPO.
Michael Robinson
Director of Tech Strategies
Weiss Ratings
3 Stocks Taking Very Different Routes Through the Summer Rally
Written by Nathan Reiff. Date Posted: 8/5/2026.
Key Points
- Casey’s General Stores remains a steady retail compounder, supported by earnings growth, dividends, buybacks and store expansion.
- Nebius Group has surged on AI infrastructure demand, but its rapid growth and capital needs make sustainability the key question.
- The Metals Company remains highly speculative as it works through permitting, commercialization and cash-burn risks.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
Concentration in a relatively small number of mega-cap stocks, inflation, elevated oil and gas prices, and other concerns have not been enough to stop the S&P 500's bull run during the first half of 2026. Buoyed by strong corporate earnings and capital spending on AI-related projects, the economy has remained remarkably resilient despite significant challenges.
That backdrop has kept investors searching for stocks with summer momentum. Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY), Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), and The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) represent three very different versions of the same market: one steady compounder, one AI infrastructure winner, and one speculative bet still waiting to prove itself.
The Quality Convenience Store That Keeps Delivering
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π Unlock the ticker now and get it completely free.Casey's is perhaps the most unexpected of the three. The Midwestern convenience store chain operates locations that sell consumer goods, prepared food, and fuel. It has quietly grown into a company worth roughly $32 billion.
A good portion of that growth has occurred in just the last few months, with the stock up almost 55% since the start of 2026. Performance over the summer has been somewhat uneven. Although shares dipped in June after an early-month spike, they have since trended gradually higher.
Casey's stands out for its quality and shareholder-friendly benefits, including buybacks and dividends. As the company makes concerted efforts to boost operational efficiency while expanding its footprint, it may continue to deliver for shareholders seeking a combination of growth and income.
Margins have remained durable, and the company is heading into the second half of the calendar year with a strong balance sheet, healthy free cash flow, and excellent net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) growth. The company's dividend yield remains modest at 0.3%, but the dividend has been incredibly stable through decades of consistent increases.
A High-Growth AI Infrastructure Play Keeps Growing
In the rush to build AI infrastructure, Nebius has emerged as a high-profile growth name. Supported by the industry's continued emphasis on data center buildout, the company has built a strong backlog and seen demand soar. As a result, NBIS shares have skyrocketed by almost 170% year to date (YTD).
As with many other AI companies, however, investors may question whether this growth is sustainable. Nebius may have found a path forward: The firm is preparing to deploy data center infrastructure in Asia, expanding its geographic reach and alleviating capacity constraints.
This is not to say that risks have disappeared. It may be challenging to sustain the massive 684% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth reported in the latest quarter over the long term. Perhaps most importantly, the company continues to face debt challenges, even after strengthening its balance sheet earlier in the year.
Still, investors bullish on the AI industry may continue to favor Nebius as a growth opportunity this summer.
The Metals Company Is a High-Risk Waiting Game
The Metals Company offers a much more speculative setup. Shares of this deep-sea mineral exploration firm are down 36% YTD, including a 7% drop over the last month. One reason may be that the company remains largely untested: It is pre-revenue and continues to navigate the permitting process.
That said, The Metals Company has highly promising technology. If permitting proceeds according to plan, the company could gain a strong advantage in an underexplored mining process with the potential to produce significant results. For now, though, the stock remains a high-risk waiting game.
Not only must the permitting process proceed smoothly enough for The Metals Company to begin mining operations, but the firm will also need to generate and grow revenue and achieve profitability to demonstrate the sustainability of its business model. The timeline remains unclear, and in the meantime, TMC continues to burn through cash.
While TMC shares may eventually prove to be a win for investors willing to accept these risks, the company's timeline makes outperformance this summer difficult. This may be why Wall Street analysts continue to rate TMC stock a Hold overall, despite its significant upside potential.
Is Lockheed Martin Gearing Up to Lead Defense Stocks?
Written by Ryan Hasson. Date Posted: 8/14/2026.
Key Points
- Lockheed Martin's stock has steadily outperformed the broader market and its own defense sector, suggesting long-term investors are building positions rather than chasing a spike.
- A record $230 billion backlog and an earnings beat on July 23 pushed shares through long-standing resistance near $540, confirming a fresh technical uptrend.
- Even with strong fundamentals, a dividend yield of 2.3% and 22 straight years of increases, Wall Street analysts have yet to catch up, keeping a cautious Hold rating.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
While much of the attention has focused on the volatility ripping through the AI trade, one of the market's oldest and most established names has quietly been building serious momentum.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) has delivered steady outperformance against both the broad market and its own sector, and the technical picture now suggests the defense giant may be stepping into a genuine leadership role. For a stock that spent much of the year in the shadows and quietly basing, the recent action warrants a closer look.
Lockheed's Quiet, Steady Outperformance
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It’s already racked up $26 billion in government contracts.
Peter Thiel just bet $1 Billion on it.
π Unlock the ticker now and get it completely free.The numbers behind the move are impressive because they have come without much fanfare. LMT is up about 15% over the past month and nearly 24% year-to-date (YTD), a substantial gain for a $138 billion defense contractor not typically known for explosive share-price moves. Even more telling is the stock's recent relative strength. LMT has outpaced the sector benchmark, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLI), by several percentage points this year, establishing itself as a leader within a sector that has also performed well.
That kind of outperformance, delivered steadily rather than in a single spike, tends to signal that larger, longer-term buyers are stepping in—not just fast money chasing a surge. When a large, liquid, blue-chip name grinds higher week after week while outrunning its sector benchmark, it can reflect a genuine shift in positioning rather than short-term speculation.
Strong Earnings Put the Breakout in Focus
The spark behind the recent acceleration in outperformance was Lockheed's Q2 report, released on July 23. The results topped estimates and, crucially, showcased a record backlog, giving investors renewed confidence in the durability of the company's revenue pipeline.
The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.94, easily topping the consensus estimate by 72 cents. Quarterly revenue of $20.06 billion grew 10.5% from the prior year and topped analyst expectations of $19.34 billion. Its backlog swelled to $230 billion, an increase of almost 38% from the prior year, as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and global tensions drove demand.
Along with improving fundamentals and a stellar recent earnings report, the company offers an impressive income component for investors. It has a dividend yield of 2.3% and a 22-year track record of dividend increases. Over the prior five years, it has delivered an annualized dividend growth rate of 6.38%.
Technical Strength Joins the Fundamental Story
The chart is where the leadership thesis shines through. After basing for close to four months, Lockheed Martin broke out following its July 23 earnings report. That catalyst propelled the stock decisively above the roughly $540–$550 area that had repeatedly tested shares during June and early July. Since clearing that zone, the stock has established a fresh base above prior resistance, printing a series of generally higher lows and firmly developing a new uptrend.
Notably, the stock is now trending steadily above all its key moving averages, a classic sign that the trend is firmly to the upside and that the bulls remain in control. Former resistance near the $540–$550 area is now the level to watch for potential support. As long as the stock continues to hold its higher lows above that range, the technical structure favors further upside.
Wall Street Still Needs Convincing
For all the strength, one note of balance is warranted.
Despite the powerful move and relative strength, the analyst community remains conservative.
The consensus rating among 20 analysts is Hold, with an average price target of $626.33, implying only about 5% upside from current levels.
In other words, the Street's ratings have lagged the stock's move rather than led it, and the valuation—at roughly 22 times trailing earnings—is no longer particularly cheap for an industrial name.
Lockheed scores in the 95th percentile of MarketBeat's MarketRank, but muted analyst enthusiasm is a reminder that this is currently more of a momentum-and-technicals story than a deep-value one.
Momentum Makes the Case for Leadership
LMT has quietly assembled the profile of an emerging market leader. Its steady outperformance, fundamental catalyst from a record-backlog earnings report, powerful technical breakout and supportive geopolitical backdrop have all contributed to its upward momentum.
The analyst community may be slow to embrace the move, but price action often leads sentiment—and right now, the price action is decisively bullish.
As long as the stock defends its new base above former resistance, Lockheed looks increasingly like a name that could help lead the market's next leg higher, even as the AI trade wobbles.
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