The emphasized that prediction markets fall under federal derivatives law and are overseen by the CFTC when listed on registered exchanges. In a post on X, he further clarified his stance on ongoing state pushback. "To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear," Selig said. "We will see you in court." |
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 | @ChairmanSelig |
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Strong statements aren't changing sentiment in some markets, nor putting a halt to current cases. This week alone, Nevada received a green light to proceed with its efforts to block Kalshi, while the prediction market giant was granted a stay of injunction in Massachusetts. |
Lines in the sand continue to be drawn, but a quick resolution to the overriding matter seems unlikely. Instead, legal wrangling will continue to hover in the backdrop, all while the prediction market industry grows by leaps and bounds. |
Top 5 Markets |
US strikes Iran by? An increasing buildup of the US presence in the region is leading to price increases on various dates. The market for February 28 is now at 27 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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Fed decision in March? Polymarket traders continue to overwhelmingly expect the status quo to remain intact, with the contract for "no change" trading at 93 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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What price will Bitcoin hit in February? The volatile crypto remains south of $70k. The price leader at Polymarket is "under $60k," now trading for 28 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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2028 Democratic nominee for President? Gavin Newsom remains the top choice at 31 cents. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds down second, down one point to 11 cents. |
 | Kalshi |
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Men's Ice Hockey - Gold Medal: The winner of Friday's semi-finals will play for gold on Sunday. Canada (50 cents) is a slight favorite over the U.S. (46 cents). |
 | Kalshi |
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Biggest Movers |
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Polymarket traders are increasingly skeptical. It's now trading at 40 cents, a dip of 26 points. |
 | Polymarket |
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How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025? As the numbers are tallied, this market is getting volatile, with less than $50 billion jumping 49 points to 97.9 cents. |
 | Polymarket |
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Will Regulation Catch Up To Scale? |
Prediction markets have expanded at an eye-popping pace that few were anticipating. For perspective, Kalshi reported 2,700% year-over-year volume growth on the recent Super Bowl. This has all happened under a cloud that some refer to as a "legal grey area." Will regulation clarity catch up to the explosive growth, or are the clouds going to remain in the forecast? |
Activity: The CFTC has publicly reinforced its oversight position as prediction market activity continues to expand. Meanwhile, state-level regulators are contesting certain offerings, and litigation remains active. |
Drivers: Rapid adoption among users and new players entering the scene has accelerated the industry's footprint. Formal rulemaking and court decisions are unfolding alongside that growth, rather than preceding it. |
When scale builds before legal boundaries are fully settled, sequencing matters. Regulatory clarity often solidifies in response to expansion, not ahead of it. The rapid pace of growth can narrow the range of viable policy outcomes. |
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The question is less whether regulation will arrive, and more how quickly it aligns with the market's trajectory. As volume and participation increase, the framework that emerges will shape both compliance standards and the competitive landscape. After such massive growth, it's tough to see the rug being pulled on prediction markets, but some form of compromise may prove to be inevitable. |
New & Trending Markets |
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? The arrest of a Royal Family member inspired this Kalshi market, now trading for 11 cents. |
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Ali Khamenei out a Supreme Leader? As Middle East tensions rise, trading volume is following. The market for "before April 1, 2026" is now priced at 26 cents. |
 | Kalshi |
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What will Trump's approval rating be on Saturday? The current price leader in this commander-in-chief market is "above 41.1%" at 72 cents. |
 | Kalshi |
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News to Know |
Are prediction market ETFs about to become a thing? Decrypt takes a look at some intriguing new filings that are aiming to do just that. |
Kalshi is teaming up with Tradeweb, aiming to expand institutional access to prediction markets. Casino.org has the story. |
The Federal Reserve has dropped a paper entitled "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," highlighting the platform's forecasting strength. |
As it awaits CFTC approval, Novig has reached a $500M valuation in its latest funding round. SBCAmericas has the scoop. |
We can count Utah Gov. Cox in the camp of those opposed to prediction markets. The Hill shares what he had to say. |
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The CFTC's posture signals confidence that prediction markets belong within a federal derivatives framework. At the same time, state-level challenges and active litigation show that jurisdictional lines are still being tested in practice. Authority may be asserted, but resolution is still unfolding. |
Regulation and adoption are advancing in parallel, with competing interests making their voices heard. This story has played out before when a significant disruptor has upset the apple cart. In the end, the legal wrangling may go on and on, but the disruptive force that has quickly become ingrained doesn't go away. |
