Thursday, November 12, 2026

What history says happens after every market bubble bursts

A lot of investors are wondering when the AI bubble will burst…

Wrong question.

The question you should be asking is:

What happens in the decade after it pops?

Here's why:

In March 2000, the Dot-Com Bubble finally popped.

The Nasdaq began its long march down – eventually falling 78%.

But during the decade after the bubble burst…

Something extraordinary happened.

Gold went on a historic bull run.

Better yet, a handful of gold miners produced gains of 50X... 53X... 252X… and even 362X. Just a $2,000 stake in each of those gold miners…

Would have handed you $1,437,320.

History may not repeat – but it sure rhymes.

That's why I've identified the four best miners for the next "Great Rotation" out of AI stocks and into gold miners.

I'm Garrett Goggin.

I'm a CFA and CMT who's spent more than 20 years studying gold and the cycles that move money from one asset class to another.

I also spent 15 years working alongside legendary gold analyst John Doody.

Here's the single most valuable lesson I've learned in my career:

The best time to make a fortune is AFTER a major market correction...

When trillions of dollars move out of growth stocks and into hard assets. I call this kind of move a "Great Rotation."

That process is already happening again.

Look…

Hard assets like gold stocks soar when a "Great Rotation" hits.

You can forget about predicting the exact day AI stocks peak. Instead…

Ask yourself: where will money rotate next?

If you want to know what history says…

Go here to see my latest research explaining my discovery – along with my four favorite gold miners… Still selling at discounts as deep as 97%.

Regards,

Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, The Golden Portfolio


 
 
 
 
 
 

Exclusive Article

Qualcomm Beat Earnings, But Its Fastest-Growing Businesses Have a Catch

By Sam Quirke. Article Published: 11/5/2026.

Qualcomm logo over advanced semiconductor circuitry underscores its leadership in mobile, AI, and connectivity chips.

Key Points

  • Qualcomm beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings expectations, but its stock fell sharply as investors focused on weaker handset revenue and margin pressures.
  • Automotive revenue increased 89% year over year, while Qualcomm expects data-center revenue to reach $5 billion in fiscal 2027.
  • Apple's shift to in-house modems and rising semiconductor costs remain concerns as Qualcomm expands beyond smartphones.
  • Special Report: Last note from me on this tc pixel

When a company beats expectations on both the top and bottom lines in its earnings report, yet its stock still drops in the immediate aftermath, the market is trying to tell you something. Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), the chip giant, handed investors exactly that puzzle after its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results landed on Nov. 4.

The headline looked clean enough. Revenue and earnings both edged past consensus, a solid double beat that would normally earn a company a pat on the back and give its shares a good reason to rise.

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However, despite the earnings beat, Qualcomm shares were trading down close to 10% in premarket trading on Nov. 5, a move that threatens to send the stock back to 2020 levels. For a business that has spent the past year trying to convince investors it’s ushering in a new era, this isn’t a great look. So why are investors so spooked, and could they be overreacting?

Qualcomm’s Headline Beat Ran Into a Soft Outlook

The quarter itself was solid. Against a market thrown into turmoil by surging memory costs, Qualcomm beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, even as its revenue continued to contract. At the same time, emerging segments like automotive saw strong revenue growth. From that perspective, Qualcomm executed well in a difficult environment.

The problem was the outlook. Management guided for next-quarter revenue with a midpoint of $10.8 billion, slightly above analyst expectations, but its non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) midpoint of $2.25 landed slightly below consensus. In other words, Qualcomm expects to sell more but earn less than investors had forecast, and that’s rarely a combination the market wants to see.

For a stock that has long traded on the strength of its margins rather than sheer scale, soft guidance like this was always going to spook investors. The reason lies in Qualcomm’s ongoing shift away from its historical reliance on handset revenue. That revenue was down more than a quarter year over year, and Qualcomm expects another sequential decline as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), long a key customer, continues to shift its modem business in-house.

That shift is at the center of the soft outlook and the market’s reaction: Qualcomm is watching formerly dependable, high-margin handset revenue walk out the door faster than its newer, lower-margin businesses can backfill it.

The Diversification Efforts Are Starting to Pay Off

Here’s where the bull case gets its oxygen, however. Qualcomm’s automotive segment posted its first quarter near $2 billion, up nearly 90% from a year earlier—a seriously eye-catching figure for a business the market once treated as a side project.

Qualcomm’s data center ambition is the other leg. Management now expects its nascent server chip business to contribute north of $650 million next quarter and has reaffirmed a $5 billion revenue target for fiscal 2027.

Combined with the Internet of Things (IoT) segment, these businesses are projected to grow more than 60% in fiscal 2027. If Qualcomm hits those marks, the handset decline could become less central to its investment story, and today’s valuation could look much more attractive. The catch is that much of that projected growth still has to materialize in fiscal 2027, and the market has become increasingly reluctant to pay up for growth that hasn’t yet materialized.

The Apple Hole Is Still There

To be sure, the bears have the more immediate point. Qualcomm’s modem supply relationship with Apple has been the elephant in the room for years, and declining chip sales continue to haunt the company’s quarterly reports. While there are plenty of reasons to be excited about where Qualcomm could be in a year, the near-term outlook is rocky. Yes, automotive might be growing fast, but even its latest red-hot numbers can’t fully plug the hole left by shrinking handset sales. Qualcomm’s data center story, meanwhile, is only beginning its revenue ramp.

The bear case, in the end, is a bet on timing: Qualcomm knows its Apple modem revenue is declining but has yet to demonstrate that automotive and data center growth can consistently offset it. Until those newer engines are large enough to counter handset weakness, each soft outlook may reinforce concerns about Qualcomm's transition.

Qualcomm’s Hold Rating Reflects a Timing Bet

Weighing all that up, the market’s reaction to the earnings report looks less like panic and more like a repricing of that timing risk. A double beat on the headline numbers is nice, but investors will always price a stock based on its coming earnings, not its past ones.

That tension helps explain why Qualcomm shares currently carry a MarketBeat consensus Hold rating, and the latest report does little to settle the debate. The diversification story is real and, in automotive, already working, but analysts may want more evidence that the newer businesses can offset handset weakness before turning more bullish.


Exclusive Article

3 Stocks Wall Street Likes More Than the Market Does

By Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 11/11/2026.

Three-panel image showing a medical office building, a luxury suburban home, and Chevrolet trucks on an assembly line.

Key Points

  • Cigna, Toll Brothers, and General Motors trade at relatively low valuations despite strong fundamentals and favorable analyst ratings, suggesting the market may be undervaluing them.
  • Cigna raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook and has cut its share count by a fifth over five years while trading at about 9x forward earnings.
  • General Motors beat Q3 2026 revenue and earnings expectations, approved a new $20 billion buyback, and trades around 6x forward earnings despite tariff and EV headwinds.
  • Special Report: I'm handing you this stock today tc pixel

Favorable analyst ratings don't necessarily mean a company's share price will rise. Sometimes the market lags behind a bullish Wall Street assessment, leaving quality companies at relatively low earnings multiples even as they accumulate Buy ratings. The key is for investors to identify those companies before the broader market catches on.

Cigna Group (NYSE: CI), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) could all fit that description. These companies have notable strengths, including substantial free cash flow, disciplined share-count management, and relatively low valuations. Each offers a unique but compelling case for why investors may be overlooking an opportunity to buy before prices rise.

Cigna Combines Low Valuation With Strong Buybacks and Improving Earnings

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Health services giant Cigna announced nearly 6% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth and beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines for Q3 2026. However, the biggest news from the company's latest earnings report may be its higher full-year adjusted earnings outlook: at least $30.60 per share, up from a previous floor of $30.45.

Evernorth, which includes the company's pharmacy benefit and specialty businesses, has continued to drive growth. However, it will likely face new pressures in the coming quarters due to industry-wide shifts in rebates and an overall reduction in the number of employers offering coverage for GLP-1 drugs for weight loss.

Nonetheless, across its pharmacy benefit, specialty, and care services businesses, Cigna expects at least 10% adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2027 from its ongoing businesses.

Cigna trades at a relatively modest 9x forward earnings, a sizable discount to the broader market. The company has taken advantage of this valuation by reducing its share count by a fifth over the last five years, including approximately $500 million in repurchases during the first nine months of 2026. The 2025 sale of its Medicare Advantage business helped make this possible.

An improving earnings outlook, strong buybacks, and a low valuation may point to an overlooked stock, but Wall Street rates CI shares a Moderate Buy overall. Risks remain, however. In addition to pressures on its pharmacy benefit business, Cigna is preparing to roll out its Signature pharmacy pricing model to fully insured customers in 2027, while costs continue to rise.

Toll Brothers' Customer Base Is Resilient, Even If the Market Hasn't Noticed

Homebuilder stocks have faced a difficult macro environment, as affordability pressures and waning consumer sentiment have weighed on performance. However, Toll Brothers is in a unique position because of its luxury brand and customer base. Its homes sold for an average of about $996,400 in Q3 2026, and its affluent buyers may have been better able to weather inflation in recent years.

The company's luxury move-up segment accounted for 61% of Toll Brothers' Q3 2026 home sales revenue. A 25% cash-purchase rate helped give management the confidence to reaffirm its full-year outlook for fiscal 2026. The company also had $3.3 billion in liquidity and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 15.6% at the end of Q3.

That said, TOL shares still trade at around 11.5x forward earnings and a modest premium to book value. By comparison, rivals like NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) both trade above 17x forward earnings. This may suggest that the market isn't giving Toll enough credit for its resilient customer base and that the stock remains undervalued relative to its industry peers.

The firm has also aggressively reduced its share count, repurchasing hundreds of millions of dollars in stock annually in recent years. Investors could benefit if Toll's most natural upside catalyst comes to pass: a reduction in mortgage rates. Lower rates would expand the pool of potential buyers and help reduce the need for the company to offer incentives.

General Motors Faces Tariff, Inflation, and EV Headwinds, But Growth Is Strong

Despite its size and prominence, General Motors demonstrates a major disconnect between its fundamentals and valuation. The company trades at around 6x forward earnings, and its low valuation has helped prompt a share-count reduction of about a third over the last four years. With significant liquidity, General Motors can also continue to offer a modest quarterly dividend.

On the earnings front, GM has performed well: It beat analyst revenue expectations for Q3 2026 by $1.2 billion and also came in a cent ahead of EPS predictions. The company raised its full-year adjusted automotive free cash flow expectations while approving a new $20 billion share repurchase authorization.

The question for investors is whether GM's ability to grow earnings and cash while returning capital to investors makes the stock attractive despite the risks facing the industry. Inflation has hit automotive firms particularly hard, and electric vehicles are disrupting the company's longstanding business model. GM also continues to navigate challenges in China and from tariffs.

If GM can continue its buyback program and sustain its pricing in the truck and SUV segments, it may be able to realize analysts' prediction of more than 14% in upside.


 
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Has The AI Bubble Popped?

Is the AI trade dead?

That’s the question splitting Wall Street after a sell-off recently wiped $2.3 trillion off the Nasdaq 100 in a single day.

One top strategist has warned investors not to wait for proof that the boom is over, because “by the time that evidence is apparent, AI stocks will have fallen considerably.”

So, is it time to dump your AI stocks?

Look, nobody can tell you exactly when a bubble will pop. I certainly can’t.

But I can show you where a serious amount of money has already begun migrating… and it’s headed to the last place most people would expect:

A corner of the market ordinary investors all but abandoned years ago.

As billions flood out of tech, the smart money is piling into this forgotten sector. One major Wall Street bank has even upgraded it and downgraded tech in the same breath.

What most people miss is that this sector is directly connected to the AI boom.

The AI build-out has laid down the most powerful computing infrastructure in history. When the hype around AI stocks unwinds, that immense computing power won’t disappear… and this sector is using it to make breakthroughs that simply weren’t possible a few years ago.

It’s also the only industry where the government hands you a legal monopoly on what you create – that’s why I believe the next Magnificent 7 could emerge from this industry over the coming years.

In my new broadcast, I lay out which stocks I’d consider selling, where I believe this money is heading, and the name of a large-cap stock I believe could 5x over the next five years.

Click here to watch it now.

Good investing,

Porter Stansberry


 
 
 
 
 
 

Special Report

The Fed Is Split on Rates—Why These 2 Treasury ETFs Could Have an Edge

Authored by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 11/5/2026.

Illustration of a government building with an American flag under a stormy sky and a red line chart overlay.

Key Points

  • The Fed held rates steady at its October 2026 meeting, leaving investors uncertain ahead of another decision expected in December.
  • TFLO and USFR are floating-rate Treasury ETFs offering yields around 3.71% with low price volatility, though they underperform if the Fed cuts rates.
  • Investors seeking a different risk profile might pair these funds with options like VCIT, which offers a higher 5.02% yield but more interest-rate sensitivity.
  • Special Report: Last note from me on this tc pixel

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at its October 2026 meeting, surprising investors who anticipated a shift after a quarter-point rate hike in September. The decision also revealed a divide among policymakers, with two voting members favoring another increase.

With another Fed decision approaching in December, investors face a familiar challenge: earning attractive income without exposing their bond holdings to significant losses if rates rise again.

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Two floating-rate Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—the iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TFLO) and the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (NYSEARCA: USFR)—offer a potential solution. Both hold Treasury notes whose interest rates adjust weekly based on short-term bill rates, allowing income to rise when rates increase while helping minimize price volatility.

With low credit risk and competitive yields, these ETFs may offer an appealing alternative to traditional fixed-income funds in the current rate environment.

TFLO: Stable Prices and Treasury-Backed Income

TFLO, which comprises just nine holdings, tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Index.

With an expense ratio of 0.15%, TFLO is not the cheapest fixed-income fund, but its costs are manageable, especially compared with those of the broader ETF market.

TFLO also has more than $7.3 billion in assets under management and healthy trading volume.

Price stability is a key feature of TFLO. In 2026, its price has ranged from $50.48 to $50.71—a band of only about half a percent—demonstrating the low volatility that makes floating-rate Treasury ETFs appealing.

Rather than seeking significant price appreciation, TFLO primarily generates returns through income.

In exchange, TFLO provides a yield of 3.71%, with distributions generally taxed as ordinary income.

USFR: Same Strategy, Bigger Fund

USFR tracks the same index as TFLO and charges the same annual fee of 0.15%.

Investors might therefore dismiss the funds as essentially identical. However, they have some subtle but important differences.

USFR has about three times TFLO’s asset base, with approximately $21.2 billion in assets under management as of Nov. 4, and substantially higher trading volume. Its portfolio also differs in its concentration: USFR holds just five different notes, with three of them collectively accounting for almost 90% of invested assets.

USFR’s year-to-date performance is nearly identical to TFLO’s, at around 0.2%, and it offers the same 3.71% yield.

With comparable bid-ask spreads and several other similarities, the funds may be distinguished by their liquidity metrics and holdings. TFLO’s somewhat broader portfolio means that any individual maturity has less influence. On the other hand, USFR’s size and trading volume may suit more active investors or those making larger trades.

What Happens to Floating-Rate ETFs If the Fed Cuts Rates?

Before selecting either fund, investors will want to understand the rules governing Treasury interest that the ETFs pass through.

Floating-rate notes also have an important limitation: They offer little protection against falling interest rates. If growth weakens and the Fed decides to reverse course, income from these notes will fall as short-term Treasury bill rates decline. In a similar scenario, they also would not capture the price gains that longer bonds could deliver.

Keep in mind, too, that these notes adjust to Treasury bill rates rather than inflation, so their income may not keep pace with rising consumer prices. The decision to invest in floaters may ultimately come down to an investor’s convictions about what will happen to interest rates over the coming Fed meetings.

Where TFLO and USFR Fit in a Bond Portfolio

That said, TFLO and USFR may appeal to investors who anticipate at least one more Fed rate hike or an extended period of elevated interest rates and want to limit principal volatility.

These funds can serve as a cash-like core for a bond allocation, which investors could then build out with fixed-income products in other categories. The space has continued to see strong inflows throughout much of the last year.

Still, these funds may be most useful as a place to park money while keeping pace with a hawkish Fed, rather than as a long-term yield play.

Investors seeking to balance that exposure might consider an intermediate-term bond fund with a different risk profile, such as the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ: VCIT).

With a yield of 5.02% and an average duration of about six years, VCIT can provide higher income potential and the possibility of capital appreciation if interest rates decline.

That could help offset some of the reduced income from floating-rate funds, although VCIT carries greater interest-rate sensitivity and additional corporate credit risk.


Special Report

Duolingo's User Growth Is Outpacing Bookings, But Is Its Strategy Paying Off?

Authored by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 11/6/2026.

Duolingo logo and owl mascot displayed with a desk scene featuring books, a globe, headphones, and a tablet.

Key Points

  • Duolingo shares jumped about 31% after its Nov. 3, 2026, Q3 report showed daily active users grew 29% year over year to nearly 65 million.
  • Revenue guidance rose to $1.22 billion for the year, but Duolingo missed EPS estimates by about three cents amid higher operating expenses.
  • Despite strong user growth, Wall Street remains cautious, with most analysts rating DUOL Hold and a consensus price target implying roughly 7% downside.
  • Special Report: I'm handing you this stock today tc pixel

Against the odds, language education platform Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) continues to navigate the threat of AI successfully, for the most part. Despite a sharp share price decline throughout much of 2025 and into 2026, the company has gradually improved its stock performance over the better part of this year. Cumulatively, shares are up an impressive 55% over the past six months.

The stock got a boost after the company reported generally strong Q3 2026 results on Nov. 3, 2026, prompting a share price spike of about 31% the following morning. The firm posted robust user engagement metrics, a sure sign that its service remains popular even as AI threatens to revolutionize how people might choose to learn a language. At the same time, Duolingo continues to face the challenge of monetizing its user base while managing the risk that doing so could slow user growth.

A Closer Look at Duolingo's Q3 2026 Earnings

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One of Duolingo's key achievements in Q3 was accelerating growth in its active user base. Daily active users climbed 29% year over year (YOY) to nearly 65 million, up from 23% YOY growth in Q2. This growth wasn't concentrated in a single part of Duolingo's customer base; engagement increased across eight of its 10 largest markets. Perhaps best of all, management expects the daily active user base to continue growing at a similar pace through the end of the year.

It is helpful to consider what may be driving that user growth. Duolingo attributes much of the acceleration to product improvements that have led to stronger retention. Gaming partnerships have also appealed to a broader base of users, although their effects tend to be more sporadic, making them an uncertain source of steady user growth.

With a growing user base, investors might reasonably expect Duolingo's revenue to climb, and the company has raised its full-year sales guidance to $1.22 billion. On the other hand, profitability through the end of the year is likely to take a hit after the company missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates by about three cents in Q3. Higher operating expenses are a major factor, while investment costs and employee bonuses are also weighing on profits.

The User/Monetization Trade-Off Pressures Revenue

Despite the increase in projected revenue, YOY sales growth of approximately 14% in Q3 may leave some investors hoping for more. Bookings also climbed 12%, a modest but not outstanding showing. At the same time, adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to 25.5% from 29.5% a year earlier.

These figures may reflect management's past choice to prioritize user growth over near-term monetization. This pivot may have prompted the major sell-off in DUOL shares in 2025. Still, the outlook is not necessarily brighter for companies that may have prioritized monetization over user growth.

For Duolingo, the trade-off between user growth and monetization may be worthwhile if the company can grow its paid subscriber base quickly enough. Paid subscribers climbed 14% YOY to 13.1 million last quarter. While noteworthy, this growth rate is only half that of overall daily active users, suggesting there may still be opportunities to convert more users into paid subscribers. The same can be said of bookings, whose growth lagged overall user base gains by an even wider margin.

That said, the company is finding ways to expand monetization. It is moving its video call feature—an AI-based tool that lets users practice their language skills through real-time conversations—from the top-tier Max plan to the Super plan. This is part of a broader effort to move Max subscribers to Super at the same price. The change suggests that Duolingo may be bundling AI features with non-AI features at no additional cost, or for a minimal increase.

For Duolingo to convert user growth into revenue, it will be essential to boost its paid subscriber rate. Making video calls more broadly available could weigh somewhat on gross margins, so this is another signal investors should monitor.

Despite the many successes Duolingo reported in its earnings, as well as the significant post-earnings share price spike, Wall Street remains cautious about DUOL stock. According to MarketBeat's analyst ratings, 14 analysts rate the company Hold, eight rate it Buy, and one rates it Sell. Analysts are divided on whether DUOL's price will rise or fall. The consensus price target points to roughly 7% downside from recent trading levels, though several analysts raised their targets immediately after the latest earnings report.

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