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Dear Reader,
According to Whitney Tilson, in less than 100 days...
The day after our upcoming midterm elections...
America is about to enter a period of economic change unlike anything we've seen in decades.
The headlines may be about politics.
But beneath the surface, a powerful force will divide our great nation in two – regardless of who wins this upcoming election.
That's why he's urging investors to look beyond campaign rhetoric and prepare for what is coming next.
In 2000, Whitney famously called the dot-com crash before many investors lost everything.
He predicted the bankruptcies of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers during the Great Financial Crisis.
He appeared on 60 Minutes and called the bottom of the stock market right before the longest bull market in history.
And today, he's sharing all the details of his new prophecy...
One that could be the most consequential to your wealth to date.
In a new presentation, Whitney explains why he believes America is approaching a major turning point, what it could mean for investors, and the steps he's taking right now to prepare.
As you'll see why, those on the winning side of this divide will see their wealth grow exponentially...
While those on the losing side could see their wealth cut in half – within the next six months.
If you care about this country, the economy and your wealth...
You'll want to watch this urgent briefing today.
Regards,
Matt Weinschenk
Publisher and Director of Research, Stansberry Research
P.S. Whitney also says most people have no clue what's coming next. But you can prepare yourself while there's still time left. He explains the full picture, and what to do about it, in this presentation.
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Amex Stock Slides on Job Cuts, But the Real Story Is Macro
Written by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 10/24/2026.
Key Points
- American Express shares fell despite record third-quarter revenue of $20.1 billion and diluted earnings per share rising 31% to $5.42.
- Management raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance, and credit quality improved, with the net write-off rate falling to 1.8% from 1.9% a year ago.
- The sell-off appears driven by macroeconomic concerns and soft commercial billings growth rather than weakness in premium consumer spending or company fundamentals.
- Special Report: Grand Canyon Discovery Reshapes America's Energy Tax Credits.
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings before the opening bell on Oct. 23. The results were solid. Yet when the market opened, AXP was the worst-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
Investors who follow American Express have seen this movie before. The company delivers strong quarterly results, and the stock sells off anyway. The only questions are how long the selling will last and whether it should scare away long-term investors.
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Discover the name of the company powering Elon's Colossus systemThe company’s announcement of a 5% workforce reduction may help explain the selling this time. Job cuts rarely make for a feel-good headline.
However, the restructuring charge was funded by a one-time gain from selling the company’s stake in Global Business Travel Group (NYSE: GBTG).
In other words, management used a windfall to make the business leaner. Furthermore, the company said it intends to use the savings to return value to shareholders.
A more likely driver of the pullback is the macroeconomic picture. That matters because of what American Express represents. Its customer base skews toward upper-income consumers and business customers, which account for the majority of spending in today’s economy. That’s particularly true in travel and entertainment (T&E).
Record Revenue Shows the Premium Consumer Is Still Spending
To oversimplify it, as these consumers go, so goes the economy. Investors treat Amex as a real-time read on that consumer. Any hint of fatigue gets priced in quickly. However, at least for now, the AXP earnings report suggests that spending remains stable.
American Express posted record third-quarter revenue of $20.1 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 31% to $5.42. Excluding the GBTG gain and restructuring charge, adjusted EPS was $4.68—still up 13% from $4.14 a year ago.
Total billed business grew 8% to $454 billion. Travel and entertainment spending led the way, rising 10% on a foreign exchange-adjusted basis. Airline billings jumped 13%. Within U.S. Consumer Services, T&E spending climbed 11%. That’s the premium consumer in action. These customers aren’t pulling back on discretionary spending yet.
Card fees tell a similar story. Net card fees rose 16% to nearly $3 billion, reflecting the refreshed U.S. Platinum Card and growth in premium card portfolios. Customers are paying higher annual fees and sticking around. About 76% of new accounts came through fee-paying products.
The pipeline looks healthy, too. Spending by Gen Z customers in U.S. Consumer Services jumped 35%. Millennial and Gen Z customers accounted for 65% of new global consumer accounts.
Raised Guidance Signals Confidence
Management raised its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $18.30 to $18.60 on a GAAP basis. On an adjusted basis, the range is $17.60 to $17.90. That’s up from the prior range of $17.30 to $17.90. The company also reaffirmed its outlook for 10% revenue growth.
CEO Stephen Squeri pointed to strength in billings, new acquisitions, Card Member retention and credit quality. Management teams rarely raise guidance with one quarter left if they see storm clouds forming.
Credit Quality Is the Key Detail
Perhaps the most important number in the report is the net write-off rate. It fell to 1.8% from 1.9% a year ago and 2.0% last quarter. Card balances 30 or more days past due held steady at 1.2%.
Consolidated provisions for credit losses also fell to $985 million from $1.29 billion a year ago. Part of that decline came from a $215 million reserve release tied to a model update. Still, the underlying write-off trend is moving in the right direction.
This matters for the macro debate. If upper-income consumers were feeling stress, it would show up in delinquencies first. So far, it isn’t.
Why Investors Are Selling on Good News
So why the selling? The commercial segment offers one clue. Commercial Services billings grew just 3%, held back by exits from the Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) small-business co-branded portfolios. Excluding those exits, growth was 5%. Small-business spending on goods and services was soft, rising only 2%.
Investors may also be looking past the quarter. When the market worries about growth, it sells the bellwether first and asks questions later. That behavioral reaction is one that long-term investors can use to their advantage.
Valuation Leaves Room for Upside
AXP stock isn’t expensive at around 19 times earnings. That’s a reasonable multiple for a company with a 38% return on equity through the first nine months of 2026. Shares are also trading about 15% below their consensus price target.
The chart shows the stock bouncing off support near $300 in recent weeks. However, shares remain below their 50-week moving average near $334. A move back above that level would suggest the market is coming around.
The company is also returning capital. Amex repurchased $1.6 billion in stock and paid $600 million in dividends during the quarter. Its share count has fallen to 671 million from 689 million a year ago.
The early sell-off says more about macroeconomic anxiety than about American Express. Record revenue, raised guidance and improving credit point to a premium consumer who is still in good shape. As long as that holds, pullbacks like this one may look like opportunities in hindsight.
Phillips 66 Posts Strong Earnings But the Stock Doesn't Care
Written by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 10/29/2026.
Key Points
- Phillips 66 reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $14.08 and revenue of $50.54 billion, both sharply higher year over year and above expectations.
- Refining drove nearly all the gains as realized margins jumped to $38 per barrel, but weaker fourth-quarter guidance suggests this quarter could mark peak profitability.
- Despite rising short interest and institutional selling, analysts remain bullish, with price targets above the $269.88 consensus and Raymond James citing a $335 target.
- Special Report: Grand Canyon Discovery Reshapes America's Energy Tax Credits.
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) delivered a blowout third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 28. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $14.08, up roughly 50% from $9.41 in the second quarter and a whopping 458% year over year.
Revenue came in at $50.54 billion, beating expectations of $44.91 billion by about 12.5% and rising 50% year over year.
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See which stocks his AI research platform is flagging nowThe market's response was muted. PSX shares were up about 1.9% in afternoon trading, following a slide of roughly 10% from the stock's mid-October high near $298.
A blowout quarter was widely expected. The stock had rallied about 75% from late June to that October peak, so the muted reaction points to two possibilities. First, investors had already priced in most of the good news.
Second, some analysts and investors believe this quarter marks the high-water mark for refining profits.
Both interpretations have support in the numbers. Nearly all of the upside came from the company's refining business. That concentration is both the strength of this report and its biggest risk.
Refining Carried the Quarter
Refining generated $6.06 billion in adjusted pretax income, nearly double the prior quarter. That represented about 85% of the company's total adjusted pretax income.
The key metric is realized refining margin, which reflects what Phillips 66 actually earns on each barrel it processes. It jumped to $38 per barrel from $24.08 in the second quarter. In the first quarter, it was just $10.11.
Management credited stronger crack spreads in every region. A crack spread is the gap between the cost of crude oil and the price of the gasoline and diesel made from it. Lower benchmark crude costs helped, too.
Execution was strong. Refineries ran at 98% of capacity, while distillate yield—the share of each barrel turned into diesel and jet fuel—hit a third-quarter record of 41%.
Why a Great Quarter Can Look Like a Peak
The company's earnings report shows that the market did most of the work. Of the $13.92-per-barrel margin increase, $13.62 came from the broader market. Only 30 cents came from better "capture," meaning how much of the benchmark margin Phillips 66 turned into profit.
That matters because no refiner controls crack spreads. The company estimates that each $1-per-barrel move in gasoline margins will shift annual EBITDA by about $340 million. For distillates, the impact is about $290 million. That leverage cuts both ways.
The rest of the business went backward. Midstream, Chemicals, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels all earned less than they did in the second quarter.
Fourth-quarter guidance also points lower. Refining utilization is guided to the mid-90% range, down from 98%. Turnaround, or planned maintenance, expenses should roughly double to $140 million to $170 million.
Short Sellers and Analysts Disagree
Positioning before the report hints at that skepticism. Short interest in PSX rose more than 23% ahead of earnings. Short interest in a large-cap refiner is usually a small share of the float, so a sharp jump stands out. Still, some short positions hedge long exposure elsewhere rather than signal outright bearishness.
Institutional activity tells a similar story. Trading was light during the quarter, but sellers outpaced buyers by about 19%.
Analysts saw it differently. Several raised their price targets heading into the report, and each was above the consensus price target of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat, which was $269.88. The most bullish target came from Raymond James, which reiterated an Outperform rating with a $335 price target. The next test is whether those targets hold or rise now that the numbers are public.
The Balance Sheet Gives Bulls a Floor
Phillips 66 used the windfall well. It returned $2.8 billion to shareholders, including $2.27 billion in buybacks, up from $379 million last quarter. It also increased its dividend for the second time in the 2026 calendar year.
Total debt fell by $2 billion to $18.5 billion, while net debt-to-capital dropped to 26% from 38% at the end of 2025. Those moves lock in some of the benefit of strong margins, even if margins fade.
An Infrastructure Wildcard?
When many investors hear the word infrastructure in 2026, data centers instantly come to mind. Phillips 66 has no direct data center business, but the broader infrastructure buildout could still matter. Construction equipment, freight trucks, and backup generators run on diesel. A record distillate yield positions the company to benefit if that demand holds up.
Midstream offers a second link. On-site power, mostly gas-fired, is expected to meet about a quarter of new data center demand by 2030, according to S&P Global. That could support volumes across Phillips 66's gas-gathering and processing network.
There is a catch. Higher natural gas prices raise refinery fuel costs. By the company's estimate, a 10-cent increase in gas prices adds $7 million to midstream EBITDA but costs refining $20 million.
Is There More Upside for PSX?
The opportunity runs through fuel demand, not gas prices. Is it already priced in? After a 75% rally, some of it likely is.
However, this is a multiyear story that one quarter's margin swing can easily obscure. The fundamentals are strong, as evidenced by record operations, lower debt, and aggressive buybacks.
The perception is that refining margins have peaked, but that doesn't mean there can't be more upside. Investors might consider using pullbacks to enter or add to a position in a trade that is likely to last several quarters.
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