A happy Sunday to you,
Jack Dorsey made headlines this week when he announced a 40% workforce reduction at Block (formerly Square).
A.I. made folks so efficient, they no longer needed as many programmers.
Block won't be the last. But the idea that A.I. will replace white collar jobs wholesale like some twisted version of the Expanse is horsesh…
I use A.I. to write every day. It allows me to produce roughly 4x-5x what I could do without it.
Just the other day, I built an entire webpage with a few prompts and no HTML coding experience. It's awesome.
However, I'm also old enough to remember when prognosticators said open-source code like Linux and Netscape would wipe out an entire industry in the 1990s.
Nope. Never happened.
In fact, Red Hat built an entire business on top of that open-source code.
There's a saying about our technology predictions: We're too optimistic looking out a decade and overly pessimistic looking out a year.
Software companies are more than just their programs. They offer customer service no A.I. can replicate.
A.I. is good. In fact, its creativity and capabilities are fantastic.
You know what it's not? Consistent.
Would you trust ChatGPT to control your personal finances? I wouldn't.
The short-term pain IS real. Companies will struggle. But they'll eventually find a balance.
Speaking of which…I want to highlight something pretty awesome we have coming up on Thursday.
Like myself, Gianni Di Poce isn't someone who panics like every pundit on CNBC.
He knows markets eb and flow, creating enormous opportunities. Yet, to the outside observer, these "cycles" appear completely random.
They're not.
And on Thursday, Gianni is set to reveal how an average trader can actually TRADE LESS and EARN MORE than just buy and hold, even on powerful tech names.
I've known a lot of people who claimed they could "time" markets. But Gianni has the backtests to prove it.
The evidence is pretty compelling. See for yourself.
Reserve your spot for Gianni's World Premier webinar this Thursday.
Jordan Schneir
Editorial Director, TheoTRADE
Don Kaufman: Why I'm NOT Taking This 100% Winner
This morning (Friday), I closed three winners and refused to touch a fourth.
By noon, I had a 247% gain, a 170% gain, and a 123% gain locked in, with another butterfly sitting at 100% that I won't touch.
This Friday wrapped up what I'm calling "The Week of the Fly."
Four out of five butterflies hit this week, and this morning everything aligned exactly like my framework predicted it would.
But it started Monday with Dell ripping my face off.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Don's article.
Brandon Chapman: 55,000 Puts Hit the IWM While the VIX Sits at 20
The S&P 500 is trapped in a box between 6,800 and 7,000. Most traders see that range and assume nothing is happening.
They are wrong.
Underneath the surface, someone bought 55,000 put contracts on IWM yesterday in a single print. The trade targeted the $256 strike for March 20 expiration.
That is not a retail trade.
The VIX is sitting at 20 without a corresponding selloff. Skew ticked up to 146, a level that reflects extreme institutional hedging activity.
Retail is buying. Institutions are selling. Insiders are selling.
The options market just priced in a level of risk that the stock market has not yet delivered.
Today, we break down what the IWM print means mechanically.
We'll also take a look at why the VIX is elevated in a sideways market, and how 80,000 contracts at the SPX 6,900 level create the conditions for the next directional move.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Brandon's article.
Gianni Di Poce: The Tech Trade Just Split in Two
Nvidia crushed earnings estimates last week. The stock tanked into Friday's close anyway.
Everyone panicked. But they panicked about the wrong thing.
Money is not leaving tech. It is rotating within tech.
A major divergence has been building across tech subsectors for months. Nvidia's pullback looks like the match that lights it off.
I am going to show you where the money is heading next.
The "software is dead" narrative has it backwards.
And one overlooked corner of tech deserves your full attention.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Gianni's article.
Jeff Bierman: My Daughter Loved Duolingo. I Still Won't Buy the Stock.
My daughter used Duolingo for years. She learned Chinese.
She learned Korean. She pulled straight A's in Spanish through the platform.
I have nothing bad to say about the product.
Now look at the stock. Look where it was and look where it is now.
This is the poster child for what I see happening to 50% of the stocks in this market. You are going to see things like this happen across the board.
Profitable companies are getting destroyed while algorithms chase slopes in every other direction.
I told members this week that the lesson behind Duolingo applies far beyond one ticker. The Genesis Cog Scanner tracks the signals that separate real institutional buying from algorithmic noise.
Understanding that difference is what keeps you on the right side of these moves.
This weekend, I want to show you why knowing a company is not enough. You have to know the stock.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Jeff's article.
Blake Young: Don't Forget the Salt
As many of you know, I like to bake. I make multiple types of artisan breads, basic sandwich breads, and rolls.
It's a fun hobby that our family and friends benefit from, since we can't possibly eat everything we make.
Having been a baker for decades, you might think I have the process down to perfection — and you'd be wrong. I forget the salt.
When I bake bread, I take the time to make sure the water is the right temperature, the starter is active, and the measurements and texture are on point.
Yet while carefully tending to all those important steps, I forget to add the salt. More times than I can count. I put the dough in the oven, bake the bread, cool it, slice it — and then I'm greatly disappointed by that flavorless lump of gluten.
One ingredient, present in the smallest quantity of all, renders the bread what I consider inedible. It has happened so many times that it's become a family motto: "Did you forget the salt?"
To break my repeated mistake, I now pull out the salt and a tablespoon and set them right next to the mixer before I start any other step.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Blake's article.
Tony Rago: Survive the First Hour
Every NQ session opened with ATR readings between 47 and 57 this week.
Hundred-handle bars were printing before 10 AM.
If you traded the open the same way you trade 11 AM, you got hurt. I know because I watched it happen on Monday, and I felt it myself.
This article breaks down the two-phase approach I developed in real time this week.
Phase one protects your capital during the chaos.
Phase two puts you in position to profit once conditions normalize.
Together they produced a 60-handle winner on Wednesday and a clean run to 25,000 on Friday.
Here is how it works.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Tony's article.
