Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (NYSE: LW) has spent the last year fighting a nasty combination of weak restaurant traffic, customer destocking, falling price/mix, and bloated potato inventories across the industry. The latest Q1 FY2027 earnings report finally gives shareholders something more useful than another promise of improvement: North American volume is accelerating while the potato market is moving toward tighter supply.
Table of Contents
That creates an unusual setup for a company whose earnings have been dragged lower by pricing and input costs. LW grew companywide sales volume 2% in Q1, North American volume 6.7%, and North America delivered 11% growth in adjusted EBITDA. Yet company-wide adjusted EBITDA still fell 5% to $286 million because Europe remained under pressure.
The stock responded accordingly, jumping 7.49% to $47.91 on October 6, with 8.38 million shares changing hands. After months of selling, the tape is starting to price something different.
The most important number in Lamb Weston’s Q1 report isn’t the $1.67 billion of revenue or the $0.75 of adjusted EPS. It’s the seventh consecutive quarter of North American volume growth.
North American sales rose 5%, powered by 6.7% volume growth, while price/mix was still negative 1.7%. Management said volume growth came from existing customers, new wins, and a strong mix of QSR relationships, with the company particularly exposed to chicken-focused chains. U.S. restaurant traffic was essentially flat and QSR traffic declined 1%, yet Lamb Weston still outperformed those trends.
The pricing drag is shrinking too. Price/mix improved from negative 2.4% in Q4 to negative 1.7% in Q1, a 70-basis-point sequential improvement. About 70% of contracts up for renewal this year have already been completed, with high retention and pricing reflecting the inflationary environment.
That is a much healthier setup than the stock’s recent price action suggests. Lamb Weston doesn’t need restaurant traffic to explode. It needs its existing volume gains to keep showing up while the pricing hole gets smaller.
Europe Is The Problem That Could Become An Advantage
Europe is still ugly. International sales fell 8%, with volume down 6% and price/mix down 2%. International adjusted EBITDA dropped to $27 million, reflecting lower European volume and higher carry-in potato costs. Then the supply picture gets complicated.
Lamb Weston says prolonged heat and dry conditions in Europe produced a smaller potato crop, with tonnage tracking well below historical averages. The company expects tighter supply to raise raw-material costs and is already working with customers to modify product specifications. Normally, higher potato costs would be another reason to stay away from LW.
This time, there is another side to the equation. Management says industry capacity is rationalizing, expansion projects are being delayed or shut down, and supply and demand are beginning to move back toward balance. Lamb Weston has also stopped production at its Broekhuizenvorst facility and shifted customers to other locations to improve network utilization.
The company is therefore entering a tighter supply environment with a cost structure it has already been attacking for more than a year. That can matter enormously once volume gains stop being swallowed by excess capacity and weaker pricing.
The Guidance Requires Less Than You Think
Lamb Weston raised fiscal 2027 guidance despite the international weakness. Management now expects low-single-digit net-sales growth, $1.125 billion to $1.215 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $3.05 to $3.35 of adjusted EPS, $730 million to $810 million of adjusted operating income and $750 million to $800 million of operating cash flow. The previous EPS range was $2.95 to $3.25, while the comparable FY2026 adjusted EPS was $2.90.
The EBITDA math is particularly interesting as Q1 produced $286 million. The midpoint of the new full-year EBITDA range is $1.17 billion, leaving roughly $884 million for the final three quarters, or about $295 million per quarter.
That isn’t an outrageous hurdle at all. Management already expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA to rise in the high single digits to low double digits, with net sales up in the low single digits. Meanwhile, the company is running an enterprise-wide zero-based budgeting program, with adjusted SG&A essentially flat year over year after removing one-time items. Management says the cost program has permanently lowered its operating cost base.
Put another way, the ingredients for better earnings are starting to line up: volume is rising, price/mix is recovering, costs are being attacked, and industry capacity is coming out.
Elon Musk has gone "all in" on Texas, home of SpaceX. But Texas just froze ALL new AI data center buildouts.
The reason? Data center demand in Texas has soared from 48 gigawatts to 474 gigawatts... since 2023, according to Reuters. But according to 60-year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin, one company has the solution. Its "micro cluster" technology will consume an estimated 99% less electricity and water. And it'll come online as soon as Oct. 20th. When it does, it'll make current data centers obsolete when it comes to major AI breakthroughs – including Elon's Grok.
The technical picture gives the fundamental story some teeth here. LW spent September sliding from the mid-$50s toward $40, where buyers repeatedly defended the stock. October 6 brought a sharp reversal: the shares closed at $47.91 after trading as high as $50.19, with volume surging to 8.38 million.
The stock has reclaimed its 20-day SMA at $45.57 and is now just above its 200-day SMA at $45.73. The 50-day SMA at $50.08 is the next obstacle. A clean move through 50–50.10 would take LW back above its intermediate trend and put the 54–55 September breakdown area back in play.
I like the setup. The North American business is already producing volume and EBITDA growth, while a tightening potato market and shrinking industry capacity could give those gains more earnings leverage than the current numbers show. If LW clears $50 with volume behind it, the market may finally start trading the earnings power that sits beyond this quarter’s headline results.
No comments:
Post a Comment