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I've been trading for over 50 years.
And in all that time, the market has never stopped surprising me. New technologies, new products, new manias — the surprises are the job.
But here's what HASN'T changed in half a century: The same 4 scheduled events keep blowing up the same beginner trades, year after year after year. Different decades, different stocks, identical losses.
Not surprises. Scheduled events. Published in advance. Free to look up.
The traders who last learn to check those dates before every trade — it becomes as automatic as looking both ways at an intersection. The ones who don't... keep learning the same lesson at full price.
I finally put all 4 in one short report: What each event is, why it detonates options positions, and the 5-Minute Check that sweeps them all.
The Options Landmine Calendar. Normally $29.97. Free today.
Download it free here before your link expires.
Good Trading,
Bill Poulos
P.S. After 50+ years, I can tell you the most frustrating losses aren't the surprises. They're the ones that were on the calendar the whole time. Get the report free.
Alphabet Is Down 18% From Its High After a Stellar Quarter—Overdone, or More Downside Ahead?
Written by Ryan Hasson. Article Published: 7/29/2026.
Key Points
- Alphabet reported strong quarterly results, with revenue up 24% to $119.8 billion and Google Cloud growing 82%, yet its stock remains 18% below its 52-week high.
- Rising capital expenditures, now guided at $195 billion to $205 billion for the year, and a resulting free cash flow outflow have driven investor anxiety despite record cloud demand.
- GOOGL found technical support near its 200-day moving average around $320, while analysts raised their consensus rating to Buy with an average price target of $419.86.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) finds itself in an unusual and precarious position. The company just delivered one of the strongest quarters in its history, yet the stock closed Tuesday down just over 18% from its 52-week high and is now up only about 7% for the year.
A mega-cap stock posting record results while its share price retreats toward its 200-day moving average leaves little middle ground.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
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The Quarter Deserved Better
The results themselves left little to criticize. Revenue rose 24% year over year to $119.8 billion, extending the company's double-digit growth streak to 12 consecutive quarters. Google Cloud again stole the spotlight, accelerating to 82% growth at $24.8 billion, roughly 11% above analysts' estimates, while its backlog swelled to $514 billion. Cloud operating income more than tripled to $8.8 billion. Search grew 17%, quieting the cannibalization debate for another quarter.
One accounting factor, however, needs to be noted. Reported earnings per share (EPS) of $9.11 were inflated by a $99 billion unrealized gain on Alphabet's Anthropic and SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stakes, with operational earnings landing near $2.87 per share. That same gain is now distorting the stock's headline price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which screens unusually low as a result. Investors comparing valuations should look through that noise rather than take the multiple at face value.
What the Market Is Actually Afraid Of
The GOOGL sell-off has one primary source: spending. Capital expenditures (CapEx) hit $44.9 billion in the quarter, double the prior year's figure, and management raised its full-year guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion, up from the prior range of $180 billion to $190 billion. Free cash flow consequently turned into a $5.9 billion outflow. In a market already extremely anxious about AI CapEx across the mega-cap sector, Alphabet's decision to spend even more was viewed as a risk rather than a signal of demand.
The bulls' counterargument writes itself, though. A $514 billion backlog represents contracted future revenue, and infrastructure is what converts that backlog into sales. Monday brought a reminder of that demand, with Verizon (NYSE: VZ) signing a dark fiber agreement with Alphabet, reportedly worth more than $1 billion, to support AI data center connectivity.
The Technical Picture
From a technical perspective, GOOGL traded down toward its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and found support exactly where it needed to, near $320. Going forward, that is the important line in the sand for the bulls.
One could argue that if the stock breaks below that support area and its post-earnings low, the structure will break and shares could enter a stage-four decline. But if it stabilizes above that zone and forms a higher low on a longer timeframe, this pullback could prove to be a compelling entry point for long-term investors following a major retreat from the high.
What the Street Is Doing
Notably, the analyst community has leaned into the weakness rather than away from it. The consensus rating on GOOGL was recently upgraded to a Buy across 54 analysts, with the average price target rising to $419.86, implying nearly 26% upside from Tuesday's close. The high target is $515. Alphabet also ranks in the 96th percentile of MarketBeat's MarketRank.
The caution flags are real but familiar: the TradeSmith Health Indicator slipped into the Yellow Zone just over a week ago, and insider selling has continued. Neither development is unusual for a stock working through a drawdown of this size.
Overdone, or Just Beginning?
The honest read is that the fundamental case and the price action are telling two different stories, and the $320 level is where they meet. Nothing in the quarter weakened Alphabet's position. Cloud is accelerating, the backlog is enormous, and the Street responded to the sell-off by raising ratings and price targets. What has changed is the market's tolerance for the spending required to serve that growth, and that tolerance may remain thin until free cash flow stabilizes.
For long-term investors, an 18% discount on a business performing this well and sitting at major long-term support is about as clean an entry point as mega-cap tech offers. For everyone else, the inflection point is simpler: watch the $320 area. Hold it, and a higher low could set up the next leg higher. Lose it, and the CapEx fears will have won the argument for a while longer.
AMD’s AI Bubble Could Burst Into Explosive Upside
Authored by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 7/27/2026.
Key Points
- AMD's expanded total addressable market forecasts and deep-value long-term earnings multiple suggest significant upside as the company pivots into AI infrastructure.
- Chart patterns and bullish analyst price targets, including a high of $1,250, point to as much as 65% upside ahead of Q2 earnings.
- Major deals with Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, alongside the MI450 launch, could drive explosive revenue growth despite execution risks.
- Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is in the midst of a rapidly swelling AI bubble that could soon burst. However, this bubble may be just the first in a series of explosive events that have the stock price on track to rocket higher in the coming quarters. The primary driver is growth underpinned by AI and edge computing, and the outlook continues to expand. All else aside, AMD CEO Lisa Su’s total addressable market (TAM) forecasts say it all. Known for conservative estimates and periodic improvements, the July 2026 updates nearly doubled the outlook for CPUs, increased the AI accelerator market by 40%, and doubled the total opportunity, including edge, industrial and computing markets.
The robust outlook being priced into the market was affirmed, leaving the stock at a deep value. Long-term estimates suggest the stock trades at just 14 times the 2030 earnings estimate, well below the S&P 500 average and setting the stage for at least 50% upside over the coming quarter. The critical detail, however, is that long-term estimates are likely too low, meaning more significant gains could follow over time. Advanced Micro Devices is pivoting into an AI-critical infrastructure provider and is about to unleash a new phase of growth.
Advanced Micro Devices Chart Points to 65% Upside in the Back Half
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Watch the free presentation and get the name and ticker nowAdvanced Micro Devices' stock price action is bullish ahead of its Q2 earnings release in early August. While the stock consolidated in June and July, the pause capped a solid rally and suggests a continuation pattern is in play. Signs of strength include a bullish MACD convergence, suggesting that new highs may be ahead.
The trigger for traders is an upside breakout, with the critical target near $570. A move to new highs would confirm the existing uptrend and support projections for the next leg higher. In this case, the projected move is worth approximately $320 to $360, equal to the rally that preceded it, or about 65% upside from the breakout point. That move could occur within a few months.
Analysts' sentiment trends were strengthened by the TAM updates, fueling AMD’s market momentum. The updates prompted numerous target reaffirmations, new coverage and price-target increases, including a new high of $1,250. While the consensus assumes the stock is trading near fair value at $500, that target represents nearly 250% upside from the trailing 12-month (TTM) level. The high-end target of $1,250 would more than double it again.
The takeaway from the analysts' commentary is that AMD’s deal volume affirms its full-stack AI pivot, positioning the company for accelerating growth in the current and future quarters. Given the recent deals and the upcoming MI450 launch, the likely outcome is that AMD continues to outperform, raise guidance and sustain bullish analyst activity through year-end and well into the following year. Until then, institutions are limiting risk. The group took profits in Q2 2026, but the impact was limited. More important are the high-level 71% ownership rate and Q3 accumulation, which align with TTM activity and limit downside risk for investors.
AMD’s Q2 Results Are the Catalyst: Deal Volume Points to Explosive Growth
CPU demand should support strong Q2 results from Advanced Micro Devices, but guidance will drive the market’s reaction. Management should provide Q3 and second-half guidance, including commentary on MI450 and Helios rack sales. As it stands, analysts are modeling only incremental sequential growth, which appears disconnected from the deal pipeline.
The recently announced deal with Anthropic is estimated to be worth more than $27 billion, equal to more than 50% of the fiscal 2026 consensus forecast, with deployments expected as soon as Q3. Other deals involving OpenAI, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are worth significantly more and also have deployments slated to begin as soon as Q3. In this scenario, AMD’s outperformance is all but assured, and revenue could grow by triple digits sequentially as early as Q4, if not sooner.
Advanced Micro Devices Faces Execution Risk
The biggest risk facing AMD is execution. With so much expectation already built into the market, even strong results could have little impact, while delays could trigger price corrections. However, the company has invested in its stack and supply chain for years, working to secure capacity while developing technology that differs from its competitors'. Crucial differences include manufacturing cost and complexity, with AMD’s process producing lower costs and fewer defects. The trade-off is that its products are better suited to inference than training, but that may not be a disadvantage. Inference is the far larger segment of the AI market, with potentially exponential demand compared with pure AI training.
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