Dear Reader,
Most people are looking at AI the wrong way.
They're chasing the next hot stock.
The next chatbot.
The next flashy headline.
But AI does not run on excitement.
It runs on power.
It runs on data centers.
It runs on infrastructure.
And right now, that buildout is turning into one of the biggest money flows in America.
He believes it sits in the path of the AI infrastructure boom...
And could be one of the most important retirement opportunities most people have never heard of.
The part that makes this urgent?
Trump has reportedly invested up to $25 million of his own money.
Alex says regular Americans can learn how to access this fund for around $15 through a regular brokerage account.
This is the kind of thing I'd rather see early than read about later.
Good investing,
Rachel Gearhart
Publisher, The Oxford Club
Why's Amazon Suddenly Lagging the S&P 500, and Is It a Warning?
Authored by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 6/9/2026.
Key Points
- Amazon has fallen more than 10% since early May and is back trading at the same level it was at last October, while the S&P 500 has been setting new highs.
- The divergence is driven by a growing tension between Amazon's AI infrastructure spending and the near-term pressure it is putting on its free cash flow.
- However, with AWS growth accelerating and several analysts assigning price targets well above $300, this recent underperformance may be creating a solid entry point.
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Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has had a difficult few weeks. The stock is trading right around $240, after reaching as high as $278 just a month ago, and is back near the level it traded at last October.
While the S&P 500 has quietly added around 2% over the same period, Amazon has given back a meaningful chunk of the gains it logged during one of its strongest rallies in years. For a stock that spent much of April and May leading the market higher, that kind of divergence is stark.
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See exactly what Jon Najarian is predicting about SpaceX and MuskFortunately for long-term bulls, the explanation is not really about the business deteriorating.
Instead, the market is grappling with the ongoing tension at the heart of Amazon's current investment case: the company is spending at a scale that is compressing near-term free cash flow, and investors are debating whether that spending will deliver the returns bulls expect.
That debate is worth understanding in detail because how it plays out will help determine whether the current pullback is a warning sign or a better buying opportunity for Amazon this year.
The CapEx Vs. Free Cash Flow Tension
Amazon's most recent quarterly results were, by most measures, very strong. Net sales rose 17% year over year, AWS grew 28%, and operating income was also solid. But one number stood out for the wrong reasons: the company’s free cash flow for the trailing 12 months fell sharply to just $1.2 billion as property and equipment costs, tied directly to Amazon’s scaling AI infrastructure, surged.
For a company of Amazon's scale, that figure is worryingly low, especially given that it was a 95% drop from the figure reported a year earlier. And while the stock shrugged it off at the time and rallied to new highs after the report, it looks like the capital expenditure concern is finally catching up with it. It doesn’t help that broader market sentiment toward AI stocks has cooled markedly in recent weeks.
Amazon is committing enormous capital to the buildout of AI data centers, and the returns on that spending are not yet fully reflected in the financials. Investors who have been rewarding Amazon for its longstanding earnings power are now being asked to believe that the hundreds of billions being invested in infrastructure today will translate into blowout revenue and earnings tomorrow.
That’s not an unreasonable ask when you consider Amazon’s track record of execution. Still, it is a bigger leap of faith than buying a company with rock-solid free cash flow. In a market that has become increasingly sensitive to capital discipline, the optics are uncomfortable.
Why the Bull Case Remains Intact
However, the counterargument is that Amazon's CapEx isn’t reckless spending; it’s a strategic investment to meet demonstrable demand. The company’s AWS unit, for example, grew 28% in the most recent quarter, a stunning acceleration for a business that’s already generating tens of billions in annual revenue.
Amazon’s pipeline of enterprise AI partnerships and commitments is also growing, offering genuine visibility into where future revenue will come from. In addition, the recently announced deal with optical fiber giant Corning is further proof that Amazon’s AI infrastructure buildout is not only real but gathering pace.
In that context, the current compression in the company’s free cash flow looks more like the necessary cost of investing to meet rising demand than a symptom of demand failing to materialize.
What the Analysts Are Saying
Anyone who’s been concerned about the pullback in AMZN will be reassured to hear that the analyst community hasn’t been spooked by it. If anything, analysts are using it as an opportunity to double down on their bullish outlook.
UBS just gave Amazon stock a fresh Buy rating and a $315 price target, while Jefferies and Citi both reiterated their Outperform ratings this month.
In fact, the growing list of analysts with price targets north of $300 is worth taking seriously. It suggests the market’s reaction in recent weeks has been overemphasizing sinking free cash flow numbers and underestimating the payoff around the corner.
As we head into the summer, this tension between CapEx and free cash flow is likely to continue. But the underlying business has rarely looked more strategically well-positioned, and the gap between where the stock is and where the analysts think it should be is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Build On a Strong Earnings Season With These 3 ETFs
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Originally Published: 6/12/2026.
Key Points
- Broad earnings success for Q1 2026 may encourage investors to seek out ways to tap into momentum across sectors.
- ETFs like MTUM and QMOM provide unique means of accessing momentum stocks in order to capitalize on growth while controlling risk.
- CAPE takes a different approach: by seeking out undervalued stocks, it may target names that are poised for big growth in the future.
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Despite numerous reasons investors might expect otherwise, 2026 appears to be off to an excellent start across many parts of the market. As evidenced by strong earnings growth that often tops analyst expectations, healthy revenue growth, and continued expansion in profit margins, a market buoyed by AI investment has thrived.
While not all parts of the market have flourished, the boom extends beyond the information technology sector. Financial stocks have also performed quite well overall, for instance. For investors, there may be motivation to capitalize on broad strength with diversified exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ideally, these investments can help capture some of the market's overall growth while also shielding investors from risks specific to any one stock. One fund for overall momentum, one based on price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and one focused on momentum quality and consistency may be a place to start.
A Momentum-Focused Fund With Market-Beating Returns
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Jon Najarian called Tesla a buy in 2014 before the stock climbed as high as 3,392%. He also called Palantir on live TV in 2020 before it surged as high as 2,000%.
Now Najarian has a new prediction centered on Elon Musk - tied to the anticipated SpaceX IPO and what he describes as a potential $44 trillion opportunity. He's sharing the specific moves he thinks investors should consider making now.
See exactly what Jon Najarian is predicting about SpaceX and MuskThe iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (BATS: MTUM) is one of the low-cost factor-based ETFs that have gained significant popularity in recent years. As a group, these funds target large-cap U.S. equities with a recent history of share price momentum.
Its underlying index helps ensure diversification across sectors, while weighting within each sector keeps the portfolio from becoming too narrowly focused.
The result is a fund with about half of its portfolio dedicated to technology stocks, with none of its nearly 130 positions accounting for more than 6.5% of invested assets. The fund is robust, with close to $26 billion in assets under management and a healthy one-month average trading volume of around 1.5 million.
In terms of performance, the momentum play continues to be strong: MTUM has returned around 25% year to date (YTD) and 35% over the last 12 months. A modest dividend yield of 0.7% may help sweeten the deal further. Overall, MTUM is a strong offering for a relatively low fee of 0.15% per year.
Unique CAPE-Based Value Fund With a Dividend Add-On
Economist Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio remains a highly popular valuation metric, and the Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF (NYSEARCA: CAPE) translates this approach into a diversified fund. CAPE seeks to focus on large-cap U.S. equities from the four cheapest sectors as determined by the CAPE ratio, with a secondary momentum strategy designed to help avoid the impact of potential value traps.
As of April 30, 2026, CAPE held information technology stocks, real estate firms, health care names, and consumer discretionary companies. However, it is rebalanced monthly to ensure timeliness based on market trends. The strategy is unique, but results have been mixed recently: CAPE is trading roughly flat YTD. This shows that even if a sector appears undervalued, it does not guarantee that stocks within that sector will immediately generate returns.
For investors, CAPE may appeal most as a buy-and-hold ETF. Part of that is due to its relatively modest asset base of just over a quarter of a billion dollars and its similarly small trading volume. At the same time, the fund's expense ratio is fairly high at 0.65%, which is offset by a 1.3% dividend yield.
Quality of Momentum Is Key for This Specialized Active Fund
The Alpha Architect U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETF (NASDAQ: QMOM) is another momentum-based fund. In this case, QMOM factors in one-year returns and, more specifically, a history of small, steady daily upward price movements rather than a smaller number of spikes, for example. This fund also focuses on smaller stocks, expecting that these firms will receive less analyst coverage and may therefore present more mispricing opportunities to capitalize on.
QMOM is an actively managed fund, but its expense ratio of 0.28% would not necessarily suggest that. All told, the ETF holds just over 50 different U.S. equity positions, all of which are roughly equally weighted, with no single name representing more than 2.5% of the portfolio. Its largest holdings include Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) and TD SYNNEX Corp. (NYSE: SNX), although the fund does not completely lean on tech names.
QMOM's approach has generally been successful: the fund has returned close to 17% YTD and offers an appealing dividend yield of about 1.2%. While not widely known, its asset base is approaching half a billion dollars. This fund may therefore appeal to investors seeking a momentum play slightly off the beaten path, and one that may be uniquely responsive to strong, sustained earnings performance among companies.
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