FAS/Sofia estimates a reduction in Bulgarian oilseeds crops in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions in July and August. FAS/Sofia estimates the rapeseed crop at 190,000 metric tons (MT), down nine percent from last year and 36 percent from two years ago. This estimate is based on tentative harvest data which shows a decline in average yields. In MY 2023/24, Bulgaria was a net importer of rapeseed with growing trade driven by expanding domestic crush capacity, and this trend is projected to continue in MY 2024/25. The sunflower crop is estimated to fall to 1.7 million MT (MMT) in MY 2024/25, down four percent from last year and 21 percent from MY 2022/23. This fall is in contrast to earlier optimistic expectations in the spring due to higher planted area for sunflower this year. If realized, it will be the smallest sunflower crop in over a decade. These developments are forecast to result in a deficit of oilseeds, and a likely decline in oilseed exports and crush.
Biblical rain in Kazakhstan's major growing regions has cut wheat and barley production, reducing its quantity and quality. In the previous Kazakhstan Grain and Feed Report, Post warned that if the worst-case scenario of rains occurred during harvest, up to 10 to 15 percent of the barley and wheat crop could be lost. Post has revised the production estimate for wheat down from 15.8 MMT to 14.2 MMT and barley down from 3.4 MMT to 3.0 MMT, or 10 percent less than the August 20 estimate.
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