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Deere Earnings: Has the Stock Outrun the Farm Cycle?
Reported by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 8/24/2026.
Key Points
- Deere delivered better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results and raised the low end of its full-year net income guidance.
- Construction and forestry stood out during the quarter even as the large agricultural equipment market remained under pressure.
- Investors are now watching whether infrastructure demand and signs of an agricultural-cycle bottom can support the stock’s next move.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) stock is up more than 9% after the company surprised analysts with a beat-and-raise quarter. For the company's third quarter of fiscal 2026 (FY2026), Deere delivered revenue of $12.61 billion, beating estimates of $10.81 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.10 also beat estimates of $4.71.
Both figures were higher than in the same quarter of FY2025. Net sales and revenues increased 5%, while diluted EPS rose 7%. The year-over-year beat on the bottom line was particularly noteworthy because earnings had come in lower in each of the previous two quarters.
Why Trump really wants Greenland (Ad)
The petrodollar arrangement that anchored the US dollar for 50 years quietly expired in June 2024. Since then, China has cut its Treasury holdings by 45% from their peak, and BRICS nations offloaded $47 billion of American debt in a single month.
The Trump administration has responded with a $12 billion critical minerals stockpile called Project Vault, equity stakes in miners like MP Materials and Lithium Americas, and a push to secure resources from Greenland to Ukraine.
Porter Stansberry lays out the full story in a new documentary, including five companies positioned at the chokepoints of what he calls Trump's New Dollar.
Watch the full documentary before December's economic summit in MiamiInvestors were looking for a reason to push DE higher. The earnings report gave them one, and the question now shifts from valuation to how much growth will come from a re-rating.
Why the Beat Goes Beyond the Farm
The results from Deere are a good example of why it's important to view a company through a wide lens. The company's core agriculture market has been under pressure due to geopolitical and regulatory concerns. That's on top of farmers dealing with increasingly extreme weather events that have hurt crop yields.
If that were the entire business model, DE would be in trouble. However, like Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Deere makes equipment that is essential to infrastructure in all its forms. That includes the buildout of data centers. This demand is real and will add to Deere's balance sheet even if only a third of forecast projects get the green light.
For current DE investors, that's been the reason to hold the stock during this difficult agricultural equipment cycle. However, management expressed its belief that the company is nearing the bottom of that cycle.
Early order program trends, improving used-equipment inventories and rising customer adoption of Deere's precision technology give the company confidence in its long-term positioning. Deanna Kovar, president of Deere's worldwide agriculture and turf division, added that Production & Precision Ag order books are effectively full for the year.
Management also noted that used high-horsepower tractor inventories from model years 2023 and 2024 are down nearly 40% from a year earlier. That inventory drawdown matters because it's usually the first sign that a replacement cycle is close behind.
Construction, Not Agriculture, Carried the Quarter
While the agriculture story was a key focus, the numbers show that construction and forestry did the heavy lifting this quarter. The segment posted net sales growth of 18% to $3.62 billion, while operating profit surged 84% to $436 million. Operating margin increased to 12.1%, up sharply from 7.7% in the same quarter last year. Small Agriculture and Turf also contributed, helped by higher shipment volumes and favorable pricing.
Deere also raised its outlook for the segment. Management now expects U.S. and Canadian construction-equipment industry sales to grow 5% to 10%, up from a flatter prior view, citing large infrastructure, data center and energy-related projects. That's the clearest evidence yet that the AI infrastructure buildout is showing up in Deere's order book.
The agriculture side of the business tells a more mixed story. Deere still expects large agricultural equipment sales in the U.S. and Canada to decline 15% to 20% in fiscal 2026. It now sees a similar 15% to 20% decline in South America, where high production costs and elevated interest rates are weighing on farmers.
Europe and Asia are both expected to be roughly flat. The U.S. and Canadian small agriculture and turf market is projected to be flat to up 5%, a relative bright spot within an otherwise soft agriculture picture.
A Guidance Raise That Signals Confidence
Deere raised the low end of its full-year net income guidance to $4.75 billion, up from $4.5 billion, while holding the top end at $5 billion.
That's a meaningful signal.
Companies don't typically raise the floor on their guidance unless they have real visibility into demand holding up through the rest of the year.
For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, net income attributable to Deere totaled $3.8 billion, or $14.06 per share, still trailing the $3.9 billion, or $14.57 per share, posted over the same period last year.
That guidance raise suggests management believes the gap is set to close, not widen.
Is the Turnaround Already Priced In?
But is that catalyst already priced in? As of this writing, DE trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 35x and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of around 3.7. Both are above the stock's historic average. The P/E ratio is also at a premium to the S&P 500, which many analysts believe is a sign that the market is overvalued.
However, DE is up nearly 35% in 2026, suggesting investors are looking through the premium and the weakness in both Precision Ag and large agriculture industry sales, which the company expects to be down 15% to 20% in North America.
What the Chart Is Telling Investors
The DE chart adds more nuance to that story. The stock made strong gains in the first two months of the year, gave most of those gains back in March and has been range-bound since then. Even after the post-earnings surge, DE still trades about 10% below its 52-week high. Recent increases in analyst price targets suggest the stock could close that gap.
For investors who have been waiting on the sidelines during that range-bound stretch, this quarter may be the confirmation they needed. The combination of a construction and infrastructure tailwind, a management team calling the bottom of the agriculture cycle and a chart that's finally breaking out of a five-month base gives DE a cleaner setup than it's had in more than a year.
Roku's Ad Business Is Growing—These 3 Stocks Could Be Next
Reported by Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 8/13/2026.
Key Points
- Roku's strong Q2 2026 earnings, with 22% revenue growth, suggest the connected TV advertising market could fuel broader industry growth beyond its pending Fox acquisition.
- The Trade Desk has pivoted toward CTV advertising with its Ventura Ecosystem, but declining open web traffic and weak Q2 2026 results have driven shares down sharply.
- Magnite and PubMatic, two sell-side CTV advertising platforms, have posted strong quarterly results and earned largely positive analyst ratings as CTV ad spending expands.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
Streaming technology giant Roku Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) may have made more headlines recently because Fox Corp. (NASDAQ: FOXA) will acquire the smaller firm for $22 billion. However, investors should not overlook the signals Roku's latest earnings report provided about the broader connected TV (CTV) advertising space.
Roku posted year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth of 22% in Q2 2026, while its GAAP earnings per share (EPS) beat analyst expectations by a massive 47 cents per share. With significant improvements in operating margin and total hours streamed, the company had a banner quarter in many respects.
Why Trump really wants Greenland (Ad)
The petrodollar arrangement that anchored the US dollar for 50 years quietly expired in June 2024. Since then, China has cut its Treasury holdings by 45% from their peak, and BRICS nations offloaded $47 billion of American debt in a single month.
The Trump administration has responded with a $12 billion critical minerals stockpile called Project Vault, equity stakes in miners like MP Materials and Lithium Americas, and a push to secure resources from Greenland to Ukraine.
Porter Stansberry lays out the full story in a new documentary, including five companies positioned at the chokepoints of what he calls Trump's New Dollar.
Watch the full documentary before December's economic summit in MiamiThis success may indicate that the CTV advertising space has the potential to attract brand spending in a way that extends beyond Roku and benefits other companies in the advertising industry as well. CTV ad spending is projected to reach $38 billion this year, with key upfront commitment figures expected to surpass those for primetime linear TV.
The three companies below are either already positioned in the CTV advertising space or are quickly expanding into it. All could appeal to investors expecting a spending surge to fuel industry-wide growth, albeit for different reasons.
The Trade Desk Maneuvers Toward CTV Ads, But Massive Challenges Remain
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) aimed to solidify its position in CTV advertising with the launch of the Ventura Ecosystem in February 2026. The platform is a collaborative venture designed to improve revenue efficiency in streaming. TTD's business complements Roku's because it operates on the buy side, providing advertisers with the means to purchase ad inventory, while Roku operates at the other end of the market with its consumer-facing products.
That said, TTD has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons lately. Shares have declined by about three-quarters over the last year, reaching their lowest levels in nearly a decade. The stock was pressured again by Q2 2026 results that fell well short of analyst expectations on multiple fronts. Management reduced its Q3 forecasts, and multiple analysts have downgraded the stock recently.
Declining open-web traffic has been a major hurdle for The Trade Desk, compounded by intensifying competition.
A concerted pivot toward the CTV space may not be enough to offset these other challenges, even as CTV advertising appears more resilient than other corners of the industry.
Magnite Carves Out a Niche in the CTV Sell-Side Space
A major sell-side advertising platform in the CTV space, Magnite (NASDAQ: MGNI), is likely to be affected by the Fox-Roku deal because of its close ties to Roku's ad ecosystem. Magnite's advantage may lie in the variety of clients it serves outside Roku's own platform, giving it a diversified portfolio without the same reliance on hardware that can pressure Roku's margins.
Analysts predict that Magnite's earnings will rise by nearly 14% over the coming year as demand for CTV advertising increases.
This follows a healthy Q2 2026, in which the company posted a 37% adjusted EBITDA margin, grew adjusted EBITDA by 30% YOY and boosted full-year guidance in multiple areas.
Two of Magnite's secret weapons in the ongoing battle for CTV ad business are its AI-based buying systems, which have already shown potential to enhance revenue, and its growing list of major media partnerships.
Both factors are helping drive analyst enthusiasm for MGNI shares, which have nine Buy ratings against just two Holds.
PubMatic's Small Size May Not Take Away From Its Momentum
PubMatic (NASDAQ: PUBM) is a supply-side platform provider in the advertising space that has made a concerted push into CTV at an opportune time, based on the signal from Roku. The company may be seeking to differentiate itself from other sell-side operators with agentic and AI-driven campaign tools.
To be sure, with a market capitalization of less than $1 billion, PubMatic is a riskier play than more established firms in the space in some respects. However, the company has a new global chief revenue officer driving momentum in the AI and CTV segments, delivered a better-than-expected quarter with multiple wins over analyst predictions for Q2 2026 and generated surging free cash flow through a variety of new and emerging revenue streams. As a result, PubMatic may appeal to investors seeking an emerging name.
Although PubMatic has yet to achieve sustained profitability, its adjusted EBITDA margin growth is highly promising. The company has also been able to strengthen its financial position while instituting share repurchases.
Based on analyst ratings, PubMatic may be the most heavily hyped stock on our list: It has 10 Buy ratings, compared with just one Hold and one Sell.
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