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Qualcomm’s Turnaround Is Working, So Why Is Wall Street Selling?
Authored by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 7/30/2026.
Key Points
- Qualcomm's revenue beat expectations on strong Automotive and IoT growth, but earnings and forward guidance disappointed, sending shares down about 4% after hours.
- Apple's transition away from Qualcomm modems is accelerating faster than expected, cutting Qualcomm's projected iPhone share well below the roughly 20% previously modeled.
- Qualcomm is diversifying beyond smartphones with rising Automotive revenue and upcoming data center chip shipments, though CapEx and memory costs are climbing.
- Special Report: Everyone wanted SpaceX. Smart money wants this.
Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) has spent much of the past few months trying to convince the market that it’s more than just a smartphone chipmaker. Its earnings report, delivered July 29, disappointed investors looking for a clear update on whether that transformation is taking hold, as the takeaways were decidedly mixed.
The headline numbers told two stories at once. Revenue for the quarter comfortably beat expectations, driven by the diversification the company has been promising. Yet earnings fell short, and guidance for the quarter ahead came in below what Wall Street wanted to see.
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Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics, says two forces - AI disruption and fracturing global trade - are triggering a historic wealth transfer already underway in 2026. Household names like Intuit (-57%), Boston Scientific (-49%), and Tractor Supply (-40%) are cratering, while lesser-known companies like Sandisk (+573%) and Rackspace (+444%) surge.
Chaikin has identified specific stocks he believes investors should sell before they fall further - and the names may surprise you. He's also pinpointing a company tapped as Nvidia's self-driving partner and a potential AI megadeal that could split into three high-growth stocks.
Stream his free presentation to get every buy and sell recommendation with no membership or credit card required.
Watch Marc Chaikin's free presentation and get his full buy-and-sell list todayThat was enough to send the stock down about 4% in Wednesday's after-hours session.
For anyone following the Qualcomm story, this was always going to be a quarter that mattered more than most. The question now is whether the progress beneath the headlines is sufficient to make this an entry opportunity or whether the near-term headwinds are too strong to overcome.
The Diversification Story Is Finally Showing Up
The single most encouraging takeaway was the performance of the business Qualcomm is betting its future on: its Automotive segment. It was the standout from the report, with revenue surging more than 60% year over year and prompting management to raise its outlook for the segment yet again. Qualcomm’s Internet of Things (IoT) business grew at a healthy clip, too, helping to comfort investors spooked by a 20% drop in Qualcomm’s Handset revenue.
This matters in the context of everything the company has been telling Wall Street. As we saw following its Investor Day last month, Qualcomm has staked its future on reducing its dependence on smartphones, and these results are the clearest evidence yet that those plans are beginning to work.
The Data Center Push Comes With a Bigger Bill
Qualcomm’s data center ambitions are another part of the business that has excited bulls, and the earnings report showed solid progress. Management confirmed that its first custom silicon shipments for data centers are expected in the current quarter, turning what had been a roadmap promise into a concrete timeline.
Unsurprisingly, none of this has come for free, and Qualcomm's capital expenditures (CapEx) have been climbing sharply at the same time. For now, that spending remains modest relative to overall sales, so this is nothing like the eye-watering CapEx numbers being seen elsewhere in the chip world. But it is a trend worth watching, particularly if data center revenue takes longer to arrive than management hopes.
The Apple Problem Just Got Worse
If there was one clear negative in the report, it was the update on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Qualcomm has long known that Apple is working to replace Qualcomm's modems with its own in-house design. Still, management revealed that this transition is now happening faster than previously expected.
Qualcomm's share of the upcoming iPhone launch is expected to be materially lower than the roughly 20% it had been modeling, a meaningful downgrade from the assumptions it held just a quarter ago.
That accelerated loss, combined with what management described as unprecedented memory costs, is the main reason guidance for the quarter ahead disappointed. It’s a stark reminder that even as Qualcomm’s new growth engines fire up, its legacy business still carries real risks.
Where to From Here?
That sense of the company being mid-transition probably goes a long way toward explaining how volatile Qualcomm stock has been in recent weeks. Before earnings, its shares were already down around 40% from May's high, and the lackluster reaction to these results suggests investors aren't ready to call the bottom just yet.
The tension is easy to see. Qualcomm's sizable Handset revenue keeps falling, while its promising yet still small Automotive revenue continues to rise. At some point, those two lines will intersect, and when they do, the company will finally be free of the big question mark that's hung over it for much of the past year. For now, though, it feels like we're not quite there.
A strong earnings beat would have settled the matter. Without it, the market did what markets tend to do when a story gets more complicated rather than clearer: sell first and ask questions later. The stock fell not because the diversification plan is failing, but because the path to pulling it off just got bumpier.
That, ultimately, is why a company making real long-term progress still saw its shares slide. The strategy is working, and the destination looks more attractive than it did a year ago. It's just that, for now, the market has decided there’s still too much near-term risk.
Boot Barn Stock Still Has Room to Run, But It Must Earn Its Premium
Written by Peter Frank. Publication Date: 8/5/2026.
Key Points
- Boot Barn delivered another strong quarter, with revenue, earnings and same-store sales all rising year over year.
- Boot Barn is expanding aggressively, with management planning 70 new stores in fiscal 2027.
- Boot Barn still has analyst upside, but its valuation and exposure to discretionary apparel trends leave less room for execution missteps.
- Special Report: Everyone wanted SpaceX. Smart money wants this.
Boot Barn (NYSE: BOOT) has earned a premium valuation, but can it avoid a markdown?
The western apparel chain has transformed itself from a niche boot-and-denim retailer into one of the most closely watched names in specialty retail. Sales are climbing, new stores are opening, and profits are outpacing those of many traditional mall-based chains.
Sell these "safe" blue chips immediately (Ad)
Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics, says two forces - AI disruption and fracturing global trade - are triggering a historic wealth transfer already underway in 2026. Household names like Intuit (-57%), Boston Scientific (-49%), and Tractor Supply (-40%) are cratering, while lesser-known companies like Sandisk (+573%) and Rackspace (+444%) surge.
Chaikin has identified specific stocks he believes investors should sell before they fall further - and the names may surprise you. He's also pinpointing a company tapped as Nvidia's self-driving partner and a potential AI megadeal that could split into three high-growth stocks.
Stream his free presentation to get every buy and sell recommendation with no membership or credit card required.
Watch Marc Chaikin's free presentation and get his full buy-and-sell list todayNow, the company must prove quarter after quarter that it deserves to maintain its valuation. Earnings are positive, and the stock has recently held firm. For new investors, however, the question is whether the stock can meet analysts’ projections or whether it has already priced in too much good news.
Boot Barn Keeps Proving Its Growth Story Has Legs
Boot Barn’s first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended June 27, continued to demonstrate the company’s distinctive success.
Founded in 1978 in Southern California, the retailer built its current business on a basic formula: open new stores, grow e-commerce, and sell a mix of boots, denim, and workwear that appeals to both function and fashion. Rather than tying its brand exclusively to either fashion or utility, Boot Barn’s combination of both has allowed it to continue expanding while many retailers have struggled.
The latest three months demonstrated this once again. Revenue rose 17.7% to $593.5 million. Net income was $70.1 million, or $2.29 per share, comfortably ahead of expectations and up sharply from $1.74 a year ago. Same-store sales increased 4.7%, driven by a 3.8% gain at retail stores and a 13.4% jump in e-commerce same-store sales.
The latest quarter followed a strong fiscal 2026 for the company. Net sales for the full fiscal year increased 17.9% to $2.25 billion, while net income climbed to $225.3 million, or $7.35 per diluted share. That was up from $180.9 million, or $5.88 per diluted share, in fiscal 2025.
New Locations Are Helping Stretch the Growth Runway
Importantly, broad-based same-store sales growth showed investors that the higher results were not simply the result of the company’s continued rapid expansion, although that has also been part of the story.
The company, which ended fiscal 2026 with 539 locations, opened 25 new stores in the fourth quarter alone. It has also said it plans to open 70 stores in the current fiscal year. Combined with same-store sales growth, this aggressive approach is one reason Boot Barn’s valuation has positioned it closer to the growth-stock sector than to that of a typical retailer.
Management Gives Investors More Reason to Stay Bullish
Along with the latest results, management signaled confidence in continued strength by raising its full-year outlook again. It now expects total sales this year of $2.58 billion to $2.625 billion, representing growth of 14% to 16% over fiscal 2026.
Net income for the year is projected at $267.9 million to $281 million, or $8.80 to $9.23 per diluted share. The company added that 46 cents per share of income is expected to come from financial benefits related to tariff refunds.
Wall Street Still Sees Room for the Stock to Run
Despite the stock’s ups and downs, Wall Street still largely agrees with the company’s optimism. Boot Barn’s run has been substantial over the past couple of years, with the stock ranging from near $70 per share at the start of 2024 to a recent 52-week high above $210. The company has also experienced dramatic swings in recent months, trading at a recent low of $133.18 in April before reaching its current price near $160 per share. Overall, the stock is down nearly 10% year-to-date, although some funds have recently been buying in.
Of the 13 analysts currently covering the stock, the consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $222.27, representing nearly 40% upside. Eleven analysts recommend Buy, while two suggest Hold. The high-end 12-month target is $282 per share, and the low is $190.
With a price-to-earnings ratio above 18, whether the valuation can continue to hold remains to be seen. While improved earnings support the current stock price, the company is not a typical value investment. It pays no dividend, and apparel in the consumer discretionary sector is notorious for running hot and cold.
The Growth Story Still Comes With Retail Risk
Western apparel has been a strong fashion and lifestyle trend, but trends can shift quickly. Any retailer that relies on discretionary spending is vulnerable.
Boot Barn also faces the typical pressures confronting any retailer, including potentially rising labor, rent, and merchandise costs, as well as competition from specialty chains and larger general merchandisers.
Boot Barn Still Has to Earn Its Premium
For investors, there’s no denying Boot Barn’s success or how effectively it has captured much of the trendy retail market. Its latest results confirm that it remains one of the stronger growth stories in specialty retail, with solid revenue growth, increasing profitability, and an aggressive store expansion plan. Analysts are broadly positive, and the consensus upside is attractive.
It’s far from a sure thing, but investors who believe the western lifestyle trend has staying power and like what they see from current management might want to consider whether Boot Barn is an investment to hitch their portfolios to.
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