Dear reader,
On April 16th, two things happened.
The U.S. Treasury executed a $15 billion buyback of its own debt — the largest in history.
And on that same day…
Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson publicly warned about a potential collapse in demand for U.S. bonds.
That’s not a random coincidence. It’s a clear signal of danger – one that everyone holding dollars needs to understand…
And after 20 years studying gold and debt cycles, I can tell you this:
When governments start aggressively buying their own debt…
You’re close to a breaking point… and that’s the moment when you cannot own enough gold.
Go here now to see the top four gold miners positioned for what comes next.
A Treasury buyback isn’t just “liquidity management” (or whatever pleasant-sounding name they choose to call it)...
It means the market doesn’t want any more US debt.
So the government steps in to buy its own bonds.
This doesn’t solve the problem – it delays it… and makes it worse. For over 30 years the US government has been “kicking the can down the road.”
Now, there’s no more road – and the can is getting too big to kick.
Because trillions in debt are still coming due – and the natural buyers are disappearing.
As the Fed steps in as the buyer of last resort, you will see money printing on a scale that will dwarf the 2008 and COVID crises.
Which means the biggest move in gold is still to come – and that’s why I’m writing to you...
Because the real upside won’t be in physical gold bullion.
It will show up in the miners still priced for a world that no longer exists.
Go here for details on the four best miners positioned to benefit from what comes next.
To your wealth,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
P.S. The Treasury just bought back $15B of its own debt while insiders warn of collapsing demand. That could be the last warning before something cracks in the bond market. Go here to see the top four miners before things escalate.
Delta vs. United: Which Airline Is Better Built for Higher Fuel Costs?
Written by Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 7/18/2026.
Key Points
- Delta Air Lines and United Airlines both absorbed sharply higher jet fuel costs this quarter, but Delta's earnings and margins held up better than United's.
- Delta's Monroe Energy refinery and hedging gains provided more structural fuel-cost protection than United's liquidity-based approach of raising cash reserves.
- Both airlines successfully raised ticket prices to offset fuel inflation, with Delta achieving comparable unit-revenue growth while expanding capacity far less than United.
- Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.
Airline stocks’ sensitivity to jet fuel prices is tested whenever fuel spikes. In 2026, fuel costs are testing every airline's balance sheet. This quarter, both Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and United Airlines (NYSE: UAL) passed the test on paper. But they did so in very different ways—and the difference matters more than the headline numbers.
Delta's adjusted fuel price rose to $3.93 a gallon, up 75% year over year. United's was worse: $4.19 a gallon, up nearly 80%. Neither figure is small. United took a significant year-over-year hit to adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and now expects almost $6 billion in incremental fuel expense for full-year 2026, up from its original budget.
This ‘Starburst’ Could Be Bigger Than the SpaceX IPO (Ad)
Marc Chaikin - the analyst who called Nvidia before its historic run - says a tech firm labeled 'the unseen winner of the AI race' may soon split into three separate companies in an event known as a starburst.
Investors who buy shares before the announcement could automatically receive equal shares in each spinoff. In GE's 2021 starburst, one position became three, unlocking $184 billion for shareholders. Chaikin believes this AI starburst could be significantly larger.
Get the full details on this rare AI opportunity before it goes publicThat's real data that investors shouldn’t dismiss as quarterly noise. The question is which airline has the structural tools to keep passing those costs through to ticket prices without losing travelers.
How Higher Jet Fuel Costs Are Impacting Delta and United
As noted above, United's adjusted EPS fell 48.6% year-over-year, from $3.87 to $1.99. Delta's adjusted EPS fell 26%, from $2.12 to $1.56. The same pattern was evident in margin compression. United's adjusted pre-tax margin fell just over six points, from 11% to 4.8%. Delta fell four points, from 11.7% to 7.7%. Delta's earnings base shrank by a smaller proportion, even though both carriers faced comparable fuel inflation.
To be fair, not all of the weakness in United’s EPS and margin numbers was due to fuel costs. The company absorbed $184 million in one-time labor contract charges this quarter, versus $561 million a year ago.
Delta's Fuel Hedging Strategy Vs. United's Liquidity Approach
At the crux of the question of which airline is "built for higher fuel costs" is fuel hedging. Most U.S. major airlines walked away from large-scale fuel hedging years ago. Unlike European carriers such as Air France-KLM (OTCMKTS: AFLYY) or Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY), which routinely lock in 70%–90% of fuel needs through derivative contracts extending a year or more out, U.S. legacy carriers have largely stopped using the strategy.
Industry reporting has pegged the impact of that exposure, and it explains the problem well. A 1-cent move in jet fuel can cost a major U.S. carrier roughly $50 million a year, with no derivative book absorbing the blow.
Delta is the partial exception because it owns Monroe Energy, a Trainer, Pennsylvania refinery that supplies a meaningful share of its jet fuel needs. Third-party refinery sales hit $2.09 billion this quarter, up 83% year over year, and Delta credits the refinery with an 11-cent-per-gallon benefit this quarter, including a 5-cent hit from a temporary outage.
Delta's earnings report showed $301 million in mark-to-market hedge adjustments and settlements this quarter alone. That's not the 80%+ coverage ratios you see at Ryanair or Air France-KLM, but it's meaningfully more structural protection than a pure spot-market buyer.
United's approach is based on liquidity. Management raised $3.7 billion in new liquidity through private bank transactions this quarter, explicitly described as "low-cost insurance" against a further oil spike.
Per sources, United has also secured select fuel supply contracts that limit some exposure, but these reportedly fall well short of the large-scale, derivative-based hedging programs that European carriers or Delta's refinery model provide.
Can Delta and United Pass Higher Fuel Costs to Travelers?
Rising jet fuel costs only matter if passengers aren’t willing to pay. So far, that hasn’t been the case. United grew capacity 3.5% year-over-year while still pushing adjusted unit revenue (TRASM) up 12.1%. Delta grew capacity roughly 1% while pushing TRASM up 12.4%.
Delta is generating comparable unit-revenue growth on a fraction of United's capacity growth—a tighter, lower-risk version of the same pricing story. United is growing into demand more aggressively, which raises the upside if travel stays strong and the downside if it doesn't.
Why Travel Demand Remains Strong Despite Higher Airfares
Both United and Delta cited increases in premium and economy/main-cabin demand. United's Basic Economy revenue rose 11%, and its overall economy-cabin unit revenue rose 12%. That was the airline’s second consecutive quarter of positive economy growth after a long soft patch. Delta's main cabin ticket revenue rose 8%, also its second straight quarter of positive main-cabin growth, while premium ticket revenue rose 17%.
At first glance, that pattern looks contradictory. The broader travel narrative through 2025 and into 2026 has been a "K-shaped" split: strong premium demand alongside a documented pullback in budget-conscious leisure travel, with ultra-low-cost carriers absorbing the brunt of that softness. If the price-sensitive traveler is genuinely pulling back across the industry, why are Delta and United both showing their cheapest cabins turning positive at the same time?
It may come down to a share shift rather than a demand surge. Neither Delta nor United built its brand around the price-sensitive flyer, but both have spent recent years building lower-tier fare products. United’s Basic Economy and Delta's comparable main-cabin fares are designed to compete for that traveler when needed.
As ultra-low-cost carriers cut capacity or struggle with their own economics, some of that traffic doesn't vanish. It shifts, "below the line," to a legacy carrier's cheapest available seat. That would reconcile positive economy-cabin growth at Delta and United with a well-documented pullback at the dedicated budget carriers.
Which Airline Is Better Positioned for Higher Fuel Costs?
Warren Buffett has been one of the most outspoken critics of airline stocks. Buffett’s argument comes down to high operating costs outweighing travel demand, which can be fickle. But every rule has occasional exceptions. In 2026, the airline industry is having a moment where, for now, math is working in its favor.
That doesn’t mean this time is different. It just means there’s an opportunity for growth despite higher jet fuel prices, as long as travelers are willing to absorb the higher costs.
If stock price growth is the only consideration, both UAL and DAL are attractive targets. In fact, an argument could be made that United has more short-term upside. But for an investor looking for long-term growth, Delta’s hedging strategy should do a better job of protecting its margins. Plus, DAL's dividend increased about 15% (from $0.1875 to $0.2150 per share) and will be paid on July 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 9.
Why Microsoft Is Playing a Different AI Game Than Big Tech—and Cash Flow Is the Test
By Chris Markoch. Published: 7/16/2026.
Key Points
- Microsoft’s fourth-quarter earnings report will test whether investors are becoming more comfortable with the company’s artificial intelligence spending.
- Azure, Copilot and Microsoft Frontier Company give Microsoft several ways to monetize artificial intelligence beyond one product line.
- Free cash flow remains a key metric because capital expenditures are rising sharply to support cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is showing tentative signs of a recovery. After a brutal eight months in which MSFT has dropped 28% from its 52-week high of $555.45, investors are hoping the worst is behind it.
That optimism, however, will be put to the test when Microsoft delivers its Q4 2026 earnings report on July 29. Microsoft is a technology conglomerate. That worked in its favor during the rise of the Magnificent Seven, but the company’s breadth has worked against it in 2026.
-
This ‘Starburst’ Could Be Bigger Than the SpaceX IPO (Ad)
Marc Chaikin - the analyst who called Nvidia before its historic run - says a tech firm labeled 'the unseen winner of the AI race' may soon split into three separate companies in an event known as a starburst.
Investors who buy shares before the announcement could automatically receive equal shares in each spinoff. In GE's 2021 starburst, one position became three, unlocking $184 billion for shareholders. Chaikin believes this AI starburst could be significantly larger.
Get the full details on this rare AI opportunity before it goes publicThe company is a hyperscaler at a time when investors are questioning the capital expenditures (CapEx) for artificial intelligence (AI).
The company is a software giant at a time when investors are concerned that AI will make current SaaS models obsolete.
The company remains a leader in gaming, even as memory and hardware costs put pressure on margins.
The saving grace is the company’s cloud computing business, Azure, which has been a shining star that the bulls have leaned on heavily. It’s a key way Microsoft is monetizing AI. But it’s not the only one investors need to understand.
Microsoft's Three-Layer AI Strategy Sets It Apart
Most AI mega-caps are still selling the promise of AI. Microsoft is already monetizing it, and doing so across three distinct layers, not just one.
The first layer is Copilot, embedded directly into the Office suite. Seat expansion converts AI hype into recurring software revenue, a model investors already trust.
The second layer is Azure, the infrastructure layer powering the buildout. This is the piece bulls have leaned on most heavily so far.
The third layer is newer: Frontier Co., Microsoft's push to help every enterprise build its own AI capability. It positions Microsoft above the AI race, not just competing inside it.
Investors should think about it in terms of picks and shovels versus the gold rush. Microsoft isn't betting on any single AI model winning. It's betting on being underneath all of them, collecting revenue regardless of who wins.
That three-layer strategy sounds compelling on paper. Q4 earnings will show whether it's translating into cash.
Why Free Cash Flow Is the Key Metric for Microsoft Earnings
Free cash flow (FCF) is the clearest measure of whether AI spending is paying off. In its Q3 2026 earnings report, Microsoft reported $15.8 billion in FCF. That’s healthy, but it was also 22% lower year over year. The reason was the $31 billion in CapEx for the quarter, mostly to support AI infrastructure.
That gap is exactly why the bear case leans so heavily on CapEx intensity, along with Copilot adoption metrics that are difficult to verify independently.
It’s hard to say the company’s level of spending is unsustainable, particularly if Microsoft continues to monetize AI. But investors view the company’s 8.38% FCF growth rate over the past three years as lacking.
Simply put, FCF is the difference between how much cash Microsoft is spending to generate AI growth and how much cash is coming in the door. In short, it tells investors whether the amount of CapEx is working.
If Microsoft's topline keeps compounding at 15%+ while FCF growth stays stuck in the mid-single digits, investors will continue to support the current narrative. That is, CapEx intensity is structural, not temporary. However, if FCF growth starts catching up, it would be an early sign that operating leverage is kicking in, which is often what markets reward before the absolute FCF number itself looks great.
With that said, FCF growth of around 10% would be great, but probably unrealistic for the current quarter. The most important sign will be that it’s no longer being absorbed by CapEx, at least not at the same rate. Even more crucial is the company's guidance for fiscal year 2027.
Microsoft Stock Remains a Long-Term AI Value Play
Cash is king, and in the case of Microsoft, it’s also the clearest look at the success of Microsoft’s AI strategy. However, it’s important for investors to separate Microsoft's short-term outlook from its long-term story.
The SaaS-obsolescence and gaming-margin worries raised earlier are real, but they're smaller and more contained than the AI CapEx debate. Which is exactly why free cash flow, not Copilot churn or console margins, is the number driving the stock right now.
The company’s cash flow is being disrupted, but that feels more than priced into MSFT. Still, traders and short-term investors may push the stock lower if the company’s FCF outlook disappoints.
Over the long term, though, the case for Microsoft remains strong. The company is spending its cash wisely. It’s waiting on demand. When the inflection point happens between the company’s CapEx spend and AI growth, institutional investors will already be positioned. At 23x forward earnings, MSFT is one of the best values in the technology sector today, rewarding patient investors who have the conviction to buy the story and not sell the headlines.
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