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Viasat's Orbiting Profits: Space Force Jackpot?
Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 6/14/2026.
Key Points
- The recent military mandate cements a structural transition for the communications provider to become a highly valued defense infrastructure partner.
- Concluding the deployment phase of the global satellite constellation marks the start of an era of sustained free cash flow generation and margin expansion.
- Active strategic reviews aimed at isolating the high-margin government revenue streams present a massive opportunity for rapid valuation multiple rerating.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Global defense budgets are undergoing a significant reallocation. Capital that historically flowed into terrestrial armor and traditional naval assets is rapidly moving upward. Space is the ultimate military high ground, and securing highly contested orbital environments has become a primary objective for the Department of Defense.
When the U.S. Space Force allocates capital, it tends to signal long-term, structural shifts in how the military communicates and operates.
Viasat Answers the Call for Space Force
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Bloomberg projects the SpaceX IPO could be valued at $1.75 trillion - potentially the biggest IPO ever. But one millionaire trader says the largest gains won't come from buying SpaceX directly.
There's an overlooked position tied to this story that most investors aren't watching. The window to get in closes before June 9th, 2026.
See the SpaceX play no one is talking about before June 9thThis macro shift crystallized recently when Viasat (NASDAQ: VSAT) secured a lucrative prime contract under the Protected Tactical SATCOM-Global program, commonly known as PTS-G.
The program carries a $4 billion Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity ceiling across participating vendors.
Under the Swarm 1 Delivery Order, Viasat and Intelsat split an initial $437.7 million allocation to develop and operate the first two maneuverable, anti-jam mini-GEO satellites.
These assets are engineered specifically for tactical, highly contested environments where adversaries actively attempt to disrupt communications. While commercial low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations provide immense civilian bandwidth, they travel in highly predictable paths. The Pentagon requires specialized, maneuverable assets in higher orbits to ensure resilient connectivity when terrestrial or lower-orbit systems are subjected to sophisticated electronic warfare.
Viasat will produce a dual-band X/Ka-band satellite leveraging proprietary technology already developed for its commercial fleet.
Expected to achieve initial operating capability in 2029, this mandate provides Viasat with highly predictable, counter-cyclical revenue streams. The contract goes beyond hardware, bundling the necessary ground infrastructure with five years of sustainment covering cybersecurity, network operations, and telemetry.
Unlocking Billions in Buried Defense Value
The broader market has traditionally valued satellite communication firms as capital-intensive telecom sector service providers. However, defense pure-play contractors can command significantly higher, more stable valuation multiples due to the reliability of government spending.
Following its $7.3 billion acquisition of Inmarsat in 2023, Viasat fundamentally altered its revenue mix. Enterprise and government contracts now account for roughly 75% of total revenue.
Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings reported on May 28 highlighted this shift, with total revenue hitting $1.17 billion. Growth was led by strength in government systems and commercial aviation, proving that institutional demand for secure, high-throughput connectivity is outpacing the decline in legacy residential broadband. Within Communication Services, aviation and government satellite communications service revenue helped offset pressure in fixed broadband and other legacy categories.
Institutional investors are acutely aware of this valuation mismatch. Carronade Capital, an activist investment firm, recently took an aggressive stance to force Viasat to recognize this underlying value. In early May 2026, Viasat entered a cooperation agreement with Carronade, appointing Shekar Ayyar and Jinhy Yoon to a newly formed Strategic Review Committee.
Carronade's underlying thesis presents a compelling mathematical argument. Its internal models suggest that structurally spinning off the defense unit could unlock up to $11 billion in stranded shareholder value. By isolating the high-margin, recession-resilient government revenue streams from the broader commercial business, a standalone defense entity would likely undergo a rapid multiple expansion to align with traditional tier-one defense contractors.
Viasat currently trades at a highly compressed price-to-sales multiple of just over 2, leaving substantial room for a rerating if the strategic review results in a structural separation.
From Building to Billing: Viasat's Profit Engine Ignites
Understanding Viasat's fundamentals requires looking beyond its trailing profitability metrics.
Viasat recently reported a trailing net margin of negative 0.73% and carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.35.
In isolation, those numbers suggest operational friction.
But in the context of the satellite industry's lifecycle, they indicate a business that has just completed the hardest part of its growth phase.
Deploying a global satellite constellation requires billions of dollars in upfront capital expenditures before a single byte of data generates revenue.
Viasat has carried the immense financial weight of building the ViaSat-3 fleet for years. That heavy lifting ended on April 29, 2026, when a SpaceX Falcon Heavy successfully launched the ViaSat-3 F3 payload into orbit.
This successful deployment finalizes the global constellation and pushes Viasat over the so-called CapEx cliff. Viasat is now transitioning from an intensive infrastructure deployment phase into a period focused entirely on sustainment and operations.
Because the new Space Force mini-GEO satellites leverage the existing ViaSat-3 architecture, research and development costs are heavily subsidized by past investments. As capital expenditures sharply decline over the coming quarters, Viasat is positioned to experience a significant free cash flow inflection. This cash generation provides the necessary liquidity to deleverage the balance sheet, improve net margins, and comfortably service its debt obligations.
The Market Sends a Bullish Signal From the Ground
Price action often precedes fundamental clarity. Viasat shares recently rose more than 13% intraday to trade above $69 on volume of more than 1.79 million shares, decisively breaking near-term resistance at $65. This momentum extends a massive year-to-date gain of 93.5%, with the stock rebounding sharply from a 52-week low of $10.82.
Technically, Viasat established a sustained golden cross in mid-2025. A golden cross, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, often signals a long-term shift in market sentiment. By trading 43.7% above its 200-day simple moving average of $45.10, Viasat is demonstrating strong relative strength in a market that heavily penalizes balance-sheet leverage.
While retail investors might see recent insider selling, including co-founder Mark Dankberg unloading 400,000 shares, these liquidations appear to be standard liquidity events (prearranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plans) taking advantage of recent highs. The massive technical breakout, driven by institutional accumulation and declining short interest, easily overshadows the executive selling.
Short interest currently sits at 7.07% of the float, down 6.07% from the previous reporting period, indicating that bearish bets are actively unwinding as the defense narrative takes hold.
Viasat's Next Phase: Awaiting the Go-for-Launch
The convergence of the $4 billion PTS-G mandate, the completion of the ViaSat-3 CapEx cycle, and targeted activist pressure creates a compelling fundamental setup.
Viasat is rapidly shedding its legacy consumer broadband provider identity and evolving into a critical partner for the Pentagon's orbital infrastructure. The market is just beginning to digest what a transition to sustained free cash flow and a potential spin-off could mean for valuation multiples.
Investors seeking exposure to the next generation of defense spending may want to add Viasat to their watchlist as the Strategic Review Committee evaluates potential structural changes and Viasat moves past its peak expenditure cycle.
An Analyst Just Raised Tesla's Price Target by 227%—Here's Why
Authored by Sam Quirke. Publication Date: 6/10/2026.
Key Points
- An analyst at JPMorgan has reset the firm's view by raising its price target from $145 to $475, marking one of the most striking reratings of the year.
- The move reflects a fundamentally different view of how Tesla should be valued, with the focus shifting away from EV sales alone and toward robotaxis, autonomous driving, and Optimus.
- Several other big names have turned bullish on Tesla this month, suggesting the bear camp is thinning out fast.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are down roughly 10% from last month’s high and remain caught between two increasingly vocal camps.
The bulls see a company on the verge of a transformational rerating as its ambitions in autonomous driving, robotics, and energy move from theory to reality. The bears, on the other hand, see a stock that remains eye-wateringly expensive relative to its actual earnings.
FORGET the SpaceX IPO (Ad)
Bloomberg projects the SpaceX IPO could be valued at $1.75 trillion - potentially the biggest IPO ever. But one millionaire trader says the largest gains won't come from buying SpaceX directly.
There's an overlooked position tied to this story that most investors aren't watching. The window to get in closes before June 9th, 2026.
See the SpaceX play no one is talking about before June 9thFor most of the past year, JPMorgan sat firmly in the second camp, holding one of the most bearish price targets on Tesla stock. Then an analyst at JPMorgan took a fresh look at the firm’s coverage of Tesla.
Rajat Gupta wasted little time delivering a major reset, lifting JPMorgan’s price target from $145 to $475 and upgrading the stock from Underweight. The magnitude of that revision, 227% to be exact, is a rare sight from Wall Street firms.
Yes, the previous rating may have grown stale, but even so, a move of that scale signals something much more significant about the firm’s outlook on Tesla than a simple adjustment.
Why JPMorgan Sees Tesla Differently
The core of Gupta's argument is that Tesla has been systematically misvalued by analysts, including his own predecessor at JPMorgan, because they have been assessing it as a car company. By that metric, Tesla looks expensive, faces intensifying competition, and has little near-term earnings growth to offer investors. But Gupta's thesis is that this framework misses the point entirely.
His analysis values Tesla across five distinct and interlinked markets: automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing. The combined addressable opportunity across those markets is enormous, and Tesla's position in each one benefits from a level of vertical integration that Gupta describes as still underappreciated and misunderstood on Wall Street.
The key insight is that Tesla doesn't just compete in these markets. It builds the hardware, writes the software, trains the AI, and controls the data, all under one roof. That built-in advantage, as Gupta frames it, is difficult for any rival to replicate quickly, regardless of how much capital they deploy.
The Numbers Behind the Rerating
The financial projections embedded in this new view are eye-catching as well. The firm now expects Tesla's revenue to more than double by the end of the decade, with a significant portion of that growth coming from services and newer businesses tied to autonomy and robotics rather than vehicle sales.
The company’s earnings per share are projected to nearly triple by 2030, a move that, if it happens, would make the current stock price look considerably more reasonable than it does when measured against today’s earnings alone.
This earnings trajectory is the key to understanding why the price target has moved so dramatically. If Tesla delivers on its non-EV ambitions even partially, the business's earnings power over the next five years could be substantial. It’s worth noting that, even though JPMorgan still rates Tesla Neutral, its new $475 price target implies about 20% upside from recent prices.
The Bear Camp Is Thinning Out
In addition to the immediate upside suggested by the new price target, what makes Tesla even more attractive right now is that the JPMorgan upgrade isn’t happening in isolation. Goldman Sachs, for example, also upgraded Tesla this month, moving it from a Sell to a Buy rating. Sanford Bernstein and Evercore both shifted to bullish stances.
That still doesn’t mean the bear case has disappeared entirely. It should be noted that while many of their peers were giving up on bearish ratings for the stock over the past week, BNP Paribas actually downgraded Tesla from Hold to Underperform.
Weighing Up the Opportunity
It’s easy to get caught up in the hype around Tesla’s trajectory, not to mention the possibility of a merger with SpaceX, but the execution risks are real. Regulatory approvals, safety validation, and the challenge of scaling entirely new technologies at Tesla’s pace are not small hurdles. Starting this journey with a price-to-earnings ratio of almost 400 raises the stakes even more and leaves little room for error.
Still, if there’s one company and one CEO you’d back to make a success of all this, it’s Tesla and Musk. As we head into the summer, it feels like they’ve managed to shift the conversation from whether Tesla is too expensive to how big the future upside could be.
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