Hey,
I usually don't share testimonials in emails because most of them are fluff. But I watched Joel Peterson's workshop replay again and there's a woman named Yvonne who's mentioned partway through, and her story has been bothering me for the last 48 hours.
Yvonne was in her late 50s. Stuck in a corporate job. Tired. She started using Joel's trade plans about two years ago. Nothing dramatic — just followed the system. Took the entries when the signals fired. Took the exits when they fired.
According to her, the income from those trades eventually got large enough that she walked into her boss's office and gave notice.
Now I want to be careful here. Yvonne's results aren't typical. Most members don't quit their jobs. Most members use it as supplemental income while keeping their day job. And trading involves real risk — anyone can lose money, including capital.
But here's what struck me. Yvonne isn't a math genius. She isn't a former Wall Street trader. She didn't have inside information. She just followed a plan that was published in front of her.
If you want to see the system that produced that story, the replay is still here:
👉 [Watch the workshop replay →]
P.S. — The thing about most "trading guru" promotions is the testimonials are unverifiable. Joel publishes his trade record publicly. So when Yvonne (or any member) says "this is the system I used," you can go check the system yourself. That distinction matters more than most people realize.
(Past performance does not indicate future results. Individual results vary significantly. Trading carries substantial risk, including total loss of capital.)
Costco’s Strong Quarter Still Leaves Investors With a Valuation Problem
By Dan Schmidt. Publication Date: 5/30/2026.
Key Points
- Costco reported record fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $70.53 billion and a 13% dividend increase, but shares fell 4% the following day.
- Headline same-store sales growth of 9.8% dropped to 6.6% when adjusted for gas and currency effects, dampening the apparent strength of the results.
- Trading around 47x forward earnings near all-time highs, Costco's premium valuation leaves little room for anything short of a blowout earnings report.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) reported its fiscal Q3 2026 results after the market closed on May 28, and at first glance, it appeared the company delivered another strong quarter.
But the market reaction after the report was muted. The stock was down 4% shortly after the opening bell the next day, which seemed underwhelming for a company that posted record revenue and has a potential tariff refund catalyst on the horizon.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
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If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidAs always, a closer look at the numbers helps explain the reaction. While Costco’s long-term growth story remains intact, it is becoming harder to justify paying 50x earnings for the stock.
Inflation-Weary Consumers Turn to Costco Value Proposition
First, the good news.
Costco announced record revenue in fiscal Q3 2026, reporting $69.15 billion in sales and total revenue of $70.53 billion when membership fees were included, beating the $69.68 billion consensus estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93 came in slightly below analysts' expectations of $4.98. Overall membership growth rose 4.1%, and the executive-tier premium plan now boasts 41.2 million members.
Membership fees are the true engine of Costco’s margin growth, so those figures need to keep rising to offset merchandise and fuel costs.
Same-store sales, a key metric that strips out growth from new store openings, increased 9.8% year over year (YOY), the company’s highest reading in more than two years. The Iran war, which has pushed gasoline prices to multi-year highs, drove much of the increase in memberships and same-store sales.
Wholesale club retailers like Costco and BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BJ) are often beneficiaries of gas price spikes since they mark their prices between 10 and 30 cents lower than independent gas stations.
Gas prices are a very visible pressure point for consumers, and price spikes often entice consumers to "bite the bullet" and sign up for a wholesale club membership.
The numbers support this thesis: gas volumes from the last five weeks of the quarter were among the five highest totals the company has reported in such a span.
Costco expects to open 26 new warehouses during fiscal 2026 and is targeting more than 30 openings in the coming years.
Income investors were also given a reason to cheer as the company increased its dividend 13% to $1.47 per share, and there is reason to believe a special dividend could be in the works this year.
Overall, it was another strong earnings report, but not exactly the blowout investors were hoping to see.
Pricey Valuation Hovers Over Mixed Earnings Picture
The biggest red flag at Costco has always been the valuation. Investors are paying a tech-sector multiple for a retailer with margins more like those of a grocery store than a semiconductor foundry.
A few details from the report help explain the less-than-enthusiastic reaction:
Gas Spike Overstates Same-Store Sales: The 9.8% figure looks impressive on its face, but it falls to a more modest 6.6% when adjusted for gas and currency effects. The adjusted figure is closer to a "real" number because it removes variables like fuel inflation and reflects only extra units sold. The 6.6% reading is a middle-of-the-pack result compared with the last two years, so the headline number did not do much to support the stock reaction.
Low-Quality Earnings Beat For an Expensive Stock: When factoring in the gap between headline and adjusted same-store sales and the slight EPS miss, there was not much upside to celebrate in this report. The stock is already hovering near all-time highs and trades around 47x forward earnings, so an earnings blowout is needed to fuel a meaningful upside move. Fiscal Q3 2026 was good, but not great, which is not enough to move a stock with such a lofty valuation.
Tariff Refund Uncertainty: One potential catalyst for Costco is the reversal of the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs, but the refund process has been murky. Additional temporary tariffs have been imposed in the meantime, leaving management with continued uncertainty in this area. Costco said it has started submitting claims through U.S. Customs and Border Protection and expects approved refunds on a rolling basis, but management also noted that the return process depends on refund timing and litigation developments.
Chart Shows Fading Momentum and Potential Consolidation Period
Costco shares are still up more than 10% year to date (YTD), but they have spent much of the last few months in a consolidation pattern that does not appear ready to break. Most of the stock’s 2026 gains were accumulated within the first few weeks of the year, long before the Iran war was on any investor’s or analyst’s radar. Since the end of January, the share price has been stuck in a tight range between $950 and $1,050.
The stock’s latest new all-time high of $1,094 on May 19 was immediately followed by six consecutive red sessions, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now dipped into bearish territory below 50. Long-term momentum remains intact thanks to January’s Golden Cross, which has kept the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average. Still, investors can likely expect more volatile, range-bound trading in the short term.
FirstCash Turns Pawn Into a Growth Machine
By Peter Frank. Publication Date: 6/2/2026.
Key Points
- FirstCash benefits from a pawn model that can generate revenue in both strong and weak economic conditions.
- Growth is being driven by expanding pawn demand across the U.S., Latin America, and the U.K.
- Analysts remain bullish, though acquisition, currency, and valuation risks remain.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Pawn shops are not where most people park their savings, but FirstCash Holdings (NASDAQ: FCFS) may be an exception. FirstCash is a pawn company, and its stock is booming.
With more than 3,300 stores across the United States, Latin America, and the United Kingdom, FirstCash has grown into one of the largest alternative finance companies serving non-prime consumers.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidIts first-quarter earnings were up 30% year-over-year, revenue rose 26%, and its shares are up more than one-third this year.
That momentum is partly driven by a growing need for financial alternatives to help consumers manage their budgets. Whether it lasts, however, depends on the future health of consumers.
Pawn Loans Create a Resilient Business Model
The pawnshop business might not be what many investors expect. A pawnshop does not make unsecured loans or check credit scores. A customer brings in an item—usually jewelry, but also electronics, tools, musical instruments, or other valuables—and receives a short-term loan using the item as collateral. If the customer repays the loan plus fees, they get their item back. If they do not, FirstCash keeps the item and sells it. The company makes money either way.
That model makes the pawn business unusually resilient. When the economy is strong, customers reclaim their items, and FirstCash earns fee income. When the economy weakens, more consumers need cash, pawn demand rises, and the company earns fees while also profiting from the sale of more merchandise.
Right now, unfortunately for consumers, it is a good time for pawnshops. FirstCash’s pawn receivables, or the value of outstanding loans secured by collateral, reached a record $851 million at the end of the first quarter, up 70% from a year earlier.
Strong Pawn Demand Fueled First-Quarter Results
That helps explain the company’s powerful first quarter. Consolidated revenue at FirstCash increased 26%, reaching $1.05 billion versus $836 million a year ago. Net income came in at $108 million, up 29% on a GAAP basis. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 29% to $211 million. Fully diluted earnings per share increased 30% to $2.43 on a GAAP basis and $2.69 on an adjusted basis, above expectations.
Driving these results was an exceptionally strong performance from all three of its pawn segments. Combined pawn revenues increased 40% in the first quarter year-over-year, and total income from the pawn segment rose 60% over the same period.
In all, FirstCash ended the first quarter with 3,334 store locations, including 1,207 in the U.S., 1,838 in Latin America, and 289 in the U.K. Consolidated assets at March 31 hit a record $5.4 billion, compared to $4.4 billion a year ago.
All 3 Pawn Segments Are Driving Growth
The U.S. pawn segment is its largest business, with $489 million in revenue in the first quarter. Demand has grown, too. The company posted 16% revenue growth, while pre-tax operating income rose 25%. U.S. same-store pawn receivables grew 19%, the eleventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Pawn loan fees rose 14% and retail merchandise sales grew 13% in the U.S., with retail margins improving to 44% from 42% a year ago.
Latin America’s growth was even more striking. Total segment revenue rose 40% in adjusted U.S. dollar terms, and the segment’s pre-tax operating income hit a record $51 million, up 62% in dollar terms. Results benefited somewhat from exchange-rate fluctuations. On a local currency basis, both revenue and pawn fees grew 23%.
The U.K. segment is relatively new but has already become a meaningful contributor. FirstCash acquired H&T, the U.K.’s leading pawnbroker, in August 2025. That operation contributed $102 million in first-quarter revenue with a 39% pre-tax operating margin. Pawn receivables in the U.K. reached $215 million, up 29% on a same-store local currency basis compared with the pre-acquisition prior-year period.
American First Finance Expands Its Reach Beyond Pawnshops
In addition to its pawn footprint, FirstCash also owns American First Finance, which it bought five years ago, significantly expanding its reach into the buy now, pay later and lease-to-own sectors. That operation brings in roughly 20% of the company’s revenue. Today, American First has about 16,600 active retail and e-commerce point-of-sale merchant partner locations, up 14% from a year ago.
For the quarter, the lending unit was the only segment to decline. But the decrease was expected, as the year-ago period included runoff revenue from earlier merchant partner bankruptcies. The segment posted pre-tax operating income of $26 million, with gross revenue down 11%.
Management Raises Its Outlook for 2026
Given the recent results, FirstCash raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance. Pawn operations are expected to account for nearly 90% of total net revenue and segment pre-tax income for the full year, it said. Already in April, same-store pawn receivables were running more than 20% higher in the U.S. year-over-year, and retail merchandise sales are expected to grow 10% or more. Its Latin American business is projected to grow in the mid- to high-teens. And for the U.K., full-year income is now expected in the range of $125 million to $135 million, up from prior guidance of $115 million to $125 million.
Analysts Continue to View the Stock Favorably
With FirstCash’s business model and predictions of further consumer pressures, it’s perhaps not surprising that analysts overall are giving the company a solid Buy rating. The stock is already up more than 60% from a year ago and over 30% this year alone.
Although the consensus 12-month price target is slightly below current trading levels, five analysts rate the company a Buy, while one rates it a Hold. The highest price target is $252 a share, with the lowest at $145. Although it is not especially dividend-rich, the company has increased its payout to shareholders for eight consecutive years. It currently pays 42 cents a share quarterly and spent $50 million in the first quarter out of a $150 buyback program repurchasing shares.
Investors Should Keep Several Risks in Mind
FirstCash may be a well-run company in a misunderstood niche of the financial sector, but it is not without risks. Significant growth has come through acquisitions, which can bring regulatory, cultural, and systems integration headaches.
Currency risk is also real. A large portion of its pawn stores operate in Mexico, and the company estimates that each full-point change in the dollar-to-peso exchange rate affects annual earnings by roughly 10 to 12 cents per share. A comparable shift in the British pound could move earnings by 7 to 9 cents.
And FirstCash is not a neglected value play. At a P/E ratio above 25, a significant amount of value is already priced in.
But the pawn business has been around for centuries, and it is not going away. If you're looking for a financial company that profits whether the economy booms or busts, the pawn industry’s three gold balls might look good in your portfolio.
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