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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media
Visa Soars Post-Earnings; Outlook Positive Despite AI RisksReported by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 5/2/2026. 
Key Points
- Visa shares reversed course after its latest earnings report, surging amid an otherwise down 2026.
- Growth hit levels not seen in years while the company raised guidance on sales and adjusted earnings per share.
- AI and agentic commerce pose both risks and benefits for Visa.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Shares of payment giant Visa (NYSE: V) have been under pressure through much of 2026. By late March, the stock had fallen more than 15% on the year. One factor weighing on shares is the conflict in Iran. Visa’s payments business tends to benefit from broad economic growth, since that typically leads to more transactions and higher-value transactions. Surging oil prices have prompted economists to lower their global growth forecasts, including those at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In April, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.1%.
Additionally, concerns around artificial intelligence (AI) and agentic commerce have surfaced. Some believe AI commerce, combined with stablecoins, could upend Visa’s traditional payments model. However, Visa just delivered earnings that were among its best in recent memory. That helped send the stock up 8.3% in post-earnings trading. The company also addressed AI directly, framing it as an opportunity rather than a threat. Visa Shows Broad-Based Strength in Beat and Raise ReportIn its latest quarter, Visa posted revenue of $11.24 billion, representing year-over-year (YOY) growth of 17.1%. The figure easily beat estimates of $10.74 billion and marked the company’s highest net sales growth since 2022. Adjusting for unusual factors such as the post-COVID recovery and the Visa Europe acquisition, it was the company’s strongest growth since 2013. Performance was strong across all of Visa’s core metrics. Payments volume rose 9%, while U.S. volume increased 8%. Both figures improved from growth of 8% and 7%, respectively, in the prior quarter. Cross-border transaction growth, excluding those between European countries, increased 11%. The company’s value-added services (VAS) growth was particularly strong, rising 27% and accounting for 30% of total revenue. VAS includes offerings that help banks and merchants reduce fraud and operate more efficiently. Visa’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 20% YOY to $3.31, surpassing estimates of $3.10 by a wide margin. On the strength of its results, Visa raised both its top- and bottom-line guidance for the full year. It now expects low-double-digit to low-teens net revenue growth, up from just low double digits previously. It also projects low-teens adjusted EPS growth, up from prior guidance for low-double-digit growth. AI and Agentic Commerce: Risk Versus OpportunitySome fear that AI and agentic commerce could fundamentally disrupt the business of traditional payment networks like Visa. Fees generated on each transaction processed through its network, often ranging from 1% to 3% of transaction value, are the backbone of Visa’s business. It's possible that AI agents could bypass this system and transact among themselves using non-traditional payment methods such as stablecoins. That would reduce Visa’s payment volume, and even if the company participates, the fees it can charge may be much smaller. Should agentic commerce reach massive scale, Visa’s economics could deteriorate meaningfully. However, during its earnings call, Visa said it believes these technologies will benefit the company in several ways. That includes accelerating the digitization of commerce, moving more transactions away from cash, and expanding Visa’s market. The company also noted that third parties estimate AI could boost global growth by 0.8% to 1.5%, which would support more spending and more transactions. Visa is positioning itself to benefit from AI adoption through its Intelligent Commerce Connect platform, which allows AI agents to connect to its network. Still, the company did not disclose what fees the platform charges. Visa: Analysts Forecast Solid Gains for the Payments PowerhouseVisa received several strong price targets following its earnings report. The average of updated targets was approximately $395, modestly above the MarketBeat consensus price target near $387. That updated average target implies upside of about 20% for Visa shares. Visa remains the world’s largest payments network. While management is confident, it is still unclear whether AI and agentic commerce will have a net positive or negative effect on the business over the long term. In reality, Visa dominates traditional payment channels, and a shift away from those rails is likely a bigger risk than an opportunity. That said, the company is wise not to ignore technological change, and it is hedging its bets by investing in AI. This gives the firm optionality if these emerging transaction channels take off. AI and agentic commerce emerging as a growth niche rather than the new norm would likely be the best long-term outcome for the company. That is a reasonable possibility, but not the only one, given the pace of AI innovation. Overall, Visa remains in a strong position, but markets will be watching closely to see how AI reshapes payment rails. Notably, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 25x, below its three-year average of around 26.5x. |
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