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Exclusive News
SanDisk Earnings Crush Estimates With 251% Revenue SurgeWritten by Ryan Hasson. Article Published: 5/1/2026. 
Key Points
- SanDisk's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $5.95 billion rose 251% year over year, easily topping the $4.55 billion consensus estimate.
- The company signed five multi-year customer agreements, with over a third of fiscal 2027 bit supply already contracted, providing durable revenue visibility.
- Despite guiding fiscal Q4 revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, well above consensus, SNDK shares declined modestly in after-hours trading.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) has been one of the most remarkable stories in the market over the past year. Heading into its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on April 30, the stock had already surged nearly 360% year-to-date and more than 3,300% over the past year. That run made it one of the market's most extraordinary performers. The thesis driving the move has, of course, been AI-related. The AI data-center buildout is creating massive, structural demand for enterprise NAND flash storage, and SanDisk sits at the center of it. For the third consecutive quarter, results sharply topped estimates as the memory shortage and supply crunch continue. The Quarter Was Extraordinary
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SanDisk's fiscal Q3 results were, without exaggeration, among the strongest earnings reports this season. Revenue came in at $5.95 billion, up 251% year-over-year and 97% sequentially. The results crushed the consensus estimate of $4.55 billion and blew past the high end of management's guidance range of $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $23.41 beat the $14.36 consensus by 63%, rose sharply from $6.20 in the prior quarter, and marked a full reversal from a small loss in the year-ago quarter. The margin story was equally compelling. GAAP gross margin expanded to 78.4%, up from 22.5% a year earlier — a 55.9 percentage-point improvement in 12 months. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 70.9%, up from 37.5% sequentially. The company ended the quarter with $3.73 billion in cash and a zero-debt balance sheet after fully repaying its term loan. Management capped the quarter by announcing a $6 billion share buyback authorization. The Datacenter segment drove much of the strength. Revenue there surged 233% sequentially and 645% year-over-year to $1.46 billion, led by TLC products and early readiness for the upcoming QLC Stargate launch. The Edge segment, which includes client and mobile applications, more than doubled sequentially to $3.66 billion, up 295% year-over-year. Consumer revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $820 million. A New Business Model Built for DurabilityBeyond the headline numbers, the most strategically significant development was progress on SanDisk's New Business Model. The company ended Q3 with three signed multi-year agreements and said it signed two additional agreements in fiscal Q4. Collectively, these contracts are backed by firm customer commitments, providing revenue visibility and earnings durability that a spot-market-driven model could not offer. More than a third of fiscal 2027 bit supply is already contracted under these arrangements. CEO David Goeckeler described the quarter as a fundamental inflection point, where technology leadership is enabling a deliberate shift toward the highest-value end markets and a model built for structurally higher, more durable earnings power. The numbers make that case plainly. The Guidance Is Equally ImpressiveIf Q3 was exceptional, Q4 guidance was not far behind. Management forecast fiscal Q4 revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, versus a prior consensus of $6.49 billion. Non-GAAP EPS guidance was $30 to $33 compared with a prior consensus of about $22.70. Non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 79% to 81% implied further expansion from Q3's already elevated levels. The Selloff and the Technical SetupDespite the strong results and guidance, the stock fell in after-hours trading. Heading into earnings, SNDK had already priced in significant optimism, hitting a fresh all-time high during the intraday session. After a parabolic run of that magnitude over the prior 12 months, even a report that crushes every metric can trigger profit-taking — particularly for a stock that was extended relative to its medium-term simple moving averages and rose almost 73% in April. From a technical perspective, the key question is what the stock does next. After such an extraordinary run, some digestion and consolidation would be healthy. A period of base-building above the rising 20-day SMA, allowing the stock to work off its overbought condition while the fundamental story continues to develop, could set up a constructive platform for the next leg higher. |
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