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Exclusive Story
Wall Street Loves TJX, But Is the Stock Still a Good Deal for Investors?Reported by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Date Posted: 5/3/2026. 
Key Points
- TJX’s stock has been on a strong run for years, driven by steady demand for its off-price brands, bringing consumers into stores even as online retail dominates.
- The company has consistently delivered earnings beats, and the most recent quarter was another example, with both earnings and revenue coming in ahead of expectations.
- While the outlook remains positive, guidance points to a more measured pace of growth, which, with the stock already near highs, may mean more moderate gains from here.
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TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) has continued to deliver standout performance, fueling a powerful rally and becoming a Wall Street favorite. But after a strong run and a more cautious outlook, investors may be wondering how much upside remains. As online shopping has become the default for many consumers, TJX has bucked the trend and shown that in-store shopping remains viable. Its off-price brands — including T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — have continued to perform well, especially notable given weak consumer sentiment that has led many lower- and middle-income shoppers to tighten their spending.
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That sustained demand for TJX’s brands has supported a long-term rise in the stock. Since early 2009, when shares traded in the low single digits, the stock has climbed steadily. It currently trades around $156, up roughly 120% over the last five years and more than 20% over the past 12 months. A Strong Quarter Caps Off Another Impressive YearTJX has posted strong financial results for years, routinely beating earnings estimates. The company’s most recent quarter continued that trend. In its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report on Feb. 25, TJX reported EPS of $1.43, up from $1.23 a year earlier and $0.05 above Wall Street expectations. Revenue was $17.74 billion, rising nearly 9% year over year and beating estimates by roughly $383 million. The company saw gains across its home and apparel categories, driven by a higher average basket and an increase in transactions. Consolidated comparable sales (comps) rose 5% during the quarter, above the company’s plan and matching last year’s 5% increase. TJX also reported an adjusted pre-tax profit margin of 12.2%, up 60 basis points from the prior year. Company Issues More Cautious 2027 GuidanceDespite the strong quarter, TJX shares fell about 1% after the report, largely on the company’s outlook rather than the results themselves. While CEO Ernie Herrman said on the earnings call that “Q1 is off to a strong start,” some investors were cautious about TJX’s 2027 guidance, which points to a more measured pace of growth. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, TJX expects consolidated comp sales to be up 2% to 3%, a pretax profit margin of 10.3% to 10.4%, and diluted EPS of $0.97 to $0.99. For the full fiscal year, it forecasts consolidated comp sales up 2% to 3%, a pretax profit margin of 11.7% to 11.8%, and diluted EPS of $4.93 to $5.02. Wall Street Remains Bullish on TJXAnalysts appeared largely unfazed by the guidance. After the report, two analysts upgraded TJX, two reiterated Buy ratings, and two raised price targets. Sentiment remains positive: all 25 analysts covering the stock have Buy ratings, including four Strong Buys. That said, price targets imply more modest upside. The average 12-month price target is $167.55, suggesting under 10% upside from the current price. Of the 17 analysts with price targets, five expect the stock to decline over the next year — the lowest target is $133, nearly 15% below the current price. The remaining targets range from $162 to $188, with the highest implying roughly 19% upside. Where Does Valuation Stand After the Run?After a long run higher, valuation is drawing more attention. TJX currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 32X, above the broader retail industry average of roughly 25X. It is, however, closer to direct peers such as Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) and Burlington Stores Inc. (NYSE: BURL), which trade near 34X. Those peers have also seen strong gains: Ross is up more than 60% over the past year, while Burlington has gained over 40%, underscoring strength across the off-price retail space. On a price-to-sales basis, TJX trades at about 2.9X, versus roughly 3.2X for Ross and about 1.7X for Burlington. TJX’s Story Remains Strong, But Growth Could ModerateThe broader picture for TJX remains positive. Its off-price model resonates with shoppers, which should support steady traffic and consistent results. That said, guidance points to more moderate growth, so investors will be watching the first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report on May 20 for a clearer read on the year. Given TJX’s track record of beating expectations and Wall Street’s overwhelmingly bullish stance, there could still be upside. But after a sustained run, future gains may arrive at a more moderate pace than investors have seen in recent years. |
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