Hey Folks, Every time a major geopolitical conflict erupts, the same pattern plays out in financial markets — and most retail investors fall for it every single time.
While headlines scream doom and social media spirals into fear, institutional money quietly positions itself on the other side of the trade.
The Four-Step Pattern
There is a documented, repeatable sequence that unfolds during virtually every major military conflict...
It starts with the outbreak of war — headlines turn terrifying, cable news runs 24/7, and social media floods with fear. Then retail investors panic, dump stocks, and rotate entirely into cash. But while they're selling, institutional investors are buying those same assets at steep discounts. They've studied the data and know exactly what comes next. Markets recover, often faster than anyone expects, and retail investors are left watching the rally from the sidelines.
With retail now making up roughly 25% of public market volume, this dynamic has become an increasingly lucrative playbook for Wall Street. | | | The Data Doesn't Lie
The historical record is clear. War-driven selloffs tend to be short-lived, and investors who hold through them come out ahead nearly every time.
June 2025 — Israel-Iran Conflict: The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, and oil spiked 13%. Retail investors flooded social media declaring they were going "all cash." Wall Street bought the dip. Within three trading days, the S&P recovered nearly all losses and oil fell back below $70.
October 2023 — Hamas-Israel Conflict: Markets feared all-out regional war. Yet the MSCI Israel Index surged over 102% from that point — roughly a 37% annualized return from a country perpetually at war.
March 2003 — Iraq War: The S&P 500 dropped 9%. Retail fled to cash. Wall Street began buying on March 12th. By year-end, the S&P was up 26.4%. Gold and oil both surged 24%.
September 2001 — 9/11 Attacks: The S&P 500 dropped 11.6%. Yet the market fully recovered within 31 trading days. A study by Bill Stone, CIO at Glenview Trust, analyzed 29 geopolitical crises back to World War I and found stocks were higher three months after the shock 66% of the time.
The takeaway is consistent: the uncertainty surrounding conflict is worse for markets than the conflict itself.
Where Wall Street Positions During War
Institutional money flows into three primary lanes during geopolitical turmoil:
1. Defense & Aerospace: The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF has gained roughly 14% year to date. Lockheed Martin is up about 15%, Northrop Grumman around 11%, and RTX has seen massive inflows — much of it positioned weeks before any shots were fired. 2. Energy — The Chokehold Trade: Iran sits along the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply flows daily. Disruptions to commercial shipping through the strait carry major spillover effects — higher inflation, potential delays in Fed rate cuts, and bullish momentum for energy and nuclear stocks. 3. Safe Havens: The classic flight-to-safety trade into treasuries, gold, silver, and precious metals remains a staple of institutional crisis positioning. | | | The Contrarian Play: Beaten-Down Tech and Growth
While narrative trades in defense and energy get all the attention, seasoned institutional investors look elsewhere — at high-quality tech stocks decimated over recent months for reasons unrelated to war.
- AMD has signed a massive deal with OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs starting in the second half of 2026 and landed a multi-year AI chip deal with Meta. Management projects 60% compounded annual growth in its data center division. The stock trades at a forward PEG ratio of just 0.2.
- Salesforce generates $41.5 billion in annual revenue with massive free cash flow. Its AI product, AgentForce, has hit $540 million in ARR, growing 330% year-over-year. The stock trades at roughly 10x free cash flow — a 60% discount to large-cap software peers.
- Microsoft trades an estimated 25–35% below fair value based on multiple DCF models. With AI embedded across Office 365 and Azure, 20% EPS growth, and a near-zero-debt balance sheet, it remains one of the safest large-cap tech plays available.
- Meta holds approximately $100 billion in net cash, generates over $60 billion in annual free cash flow, and trades 20–25% below fair value estimates. With nearly 4 billion monthly active users and $125 billion earmarked for AI infrastructure, the company could acquire most mid-cap companies outright with cash on hand.
The Bottom Line
The worst move retail investors can make is to sell first and ask questions later — which is precisely what Wall Street counts on. Going all cash during conflict means rotating out of productive assets into a vehicle guaranteed to lose purchasing power, especially as governments print money to fund military operations.
Institutional money buys the fear, holds through volatility, and comes out ahead. The playbook has never changed. The only question is which side of the trade investors choose to be on.
Anyways...
That's all for now!
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