From the Politics Desk

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Welcome to a special post-election edition of the newsletter. We're still waiting on final results in several key races, but here's what to know so far from the first primary night of the 2026 midterms.

— Adam Wollner

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Texas GOP Senate race goes to overtime

The heated Senate Republican primary in Texas will continue for several more weeks, with NBC News projecting that Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton will advance to a runoff, Bridget Bowman writes.

Paxton and Cornyn will face off on May 26 in a race that has already drawn nearly $100 million in advertising, largely from Cornyn and his allies. GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt's entrance into the race meant none of the three major candidates was able to win a majority of the primary vote, pushing the race to a runoff.

Cornyn told reporters this evening that Paxton would be a "dead weight to the top of the ticket for Republicans running" in Texas if he advanced to the general election.

"Just like the primary, we have a plan to win the runoff, and we are in the process of executing it," Cornyn said. "Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton."

Speaking to supporters tonight, Paxton said the results showed that "Texans want new leadership."

President Donald Trump remained neutral in the primary, saying he supported all three candidates. But he could take a side in a runoff, according to a person familiar with the White House's thinking and strategy.

On the Democratic side: The primary between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico remained too early to call. Democrats hope they can be competitive in the traditionally Republican state this fall as they face an uphill battle to net the four seats needed to flip control in the Senate.

Voter confusion in Dallas County, the second-most-populous county in the state, added a layer of uncertainty to the race, Jane C. Timm reports. New rules spearheaded by Republicans caused some voters to go to the wrong polling places. A Dallas County judge ordered polling places to stay open two hours later as a result, but that was temporarily blocked by the Texas Supreme Court, leaving votes cast after 7 p.m. local time in limbo.

North Carolina: Meanwhile, one of this fall's biggest Senate matchups was officially set tonight, Bridget notes. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley won their respective primaries, NBC News projects.

Democrats are confident that Cooper will be a formidable candidate after he won races for governor in 2016 and 2020 even as Trump carried the state. Trump encouraged Whatley to run and endorsed his campaign when he launched in late July.

Further down the ballot in North Carolina, state Senate leader Phil Berger — who is backed by Trump and delivered a Republican-led redistricting effort last year — is down by two votes in his GOP primary, per Owen Auston-Babcock.

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First incumbent loses primary of the 2026 election cycle

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, became the first member of Congress to lose renomination in the 2026 midterm election cycle, Megan Lebowitz and Ben Kamisar report.

State Rep. Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw in the GOP primary in Texas' 2nd District, NBC News projects, after a race that centered on which candidate more closely aligned with President Donald Trump.

Toth challenged Crenshaw — the lone sitting GOP congressman running for re-election in Tuesday's primaries who didn't have Trump's endorsement — from the right, arguing that his foreign policy and immigration views did not sufficiently align with those of the MAGA movement. Toth, an ordained pastor, also secured a late endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

A handful of other races in which House members appeared in danger remain uncalled, Ben notes.

Texas' 18th District: Redistricting forced Democratic Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee into a member-versus-member primary that's being fought along generational lines. The two are locked in a tight race with about two-thirds of the expected vote in, with Menefee holding a slight lead but just shy of the majority needed to avoid a runoff.

Texas' 23rd District: Rep. Tony Gonzales was forced into a GOP primary runoff for the second straight election against pro-gun activist Brandon Herrera, NBC News projects. This year, the campaign has been

shaped by allegations that Gonzalez had an affair with a staffer in his congressional office who died by suicide in 2025.

Texas' 33rd District: Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson trails former Rep. Colin Allred by about 11 points with about 60% of the vote in, with a potential runoff looming there.

North Carolina's 4th District: Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a tight rematch of the 2022 primary against Durham County Board of Commissioners member Nida Allam. Foushee has a 1-point lead over Allam with nearly all of the projected vote counted.