I'd rather miss a bounce than catch a falling knife. Especially when that knife just dropped 30% in a single session. Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance I'm known for being a metals guy. I got people into gold and silver years ago. I made a fortune in Seabridge. I bought Hecla under $3 and watched it climb to $23. So when silver crashed nearly 30% last Friday, my phone started buzzing. Friends, subscribers, neighbors - all asking the same question: "Is this the dip to buy?" Silver's sitting at $80 after touching $115 just days ago. Down 30% in one session. Looks like a bargain, right? Not to me. Look, my situation is different. I'm playing with house money on these positions. When Hecla swings 20% in a day, I'm not losing sleep. My cost basis is $2.90. But if I were putting fresh capital to work today? Different story entirely. People who completely ignored precious metals for years now want to "buy the dip" at $80 silver. These are the same folks who thought I was nuts accumulating miners when nobody cared about the sector. Now they want in after a 300%+ run, just because it pulled back 30% from the peak. That's not value investing. That's trying to catch a falling knife. Silver in the $40s - that's where I'd consider backing up the truck with new money. Maybe. Gold around $3,000 on a real correction. Will we get there? Who knows. Silver could bounce tomorrow and never see those levels again. Or it could keep bleeding for months. But I'd rather miss a bounce than catch a falling knife. Especially when that knife just dropped 30% in a single session. When I bought Hecla at $2.90, people laughed. "Dead money sector." "Gold bugs living in the past." I bought anyway because the risk-reward was obvious. At $86 silver after a face-ripping rally? The risk-reward doesn't work for fresh money. You're hoping to time the bottom of a correction in something that just went parabolic. That's speculation, not investing. |
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