| "The Era of Permanent Inflation" I mentioned before that we're in a state of "permanent inflation," but many investors don't realize it - despite the rhetoric of government officials. Last week Wall Street applauded the report that the Consumer Price Inflation rose at an annualized rate of 2.7%, "less than anticipated," suggesting that the Fed's 2% inflation target is within reach. The Federal Reserve has a mandate to achieve "price stability" along with "full employment." Today price stability is interpreted to mean a 2% inflation target, based on the CPI. But a 2% inflation target is, by definition, not "price stability." As former Fed chairman Paul Volcker states, "a 2% inflation rate, successfully maintained, would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation." Indeed, since World War II, we have entered a period of permanent inflation. This chart, originally created by Harvard economists Carl Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff on the 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve Act, demonstrates dramatically the shift in monetary policy in our 250-year history. Prior to World War II, inflation was caused temporarily by wars. After the war, inflation came back down. But that all changed after 1945. I ask my students at Chapman University, "What caused the shift to permanent inflation after World War II?" There are five possible answers: never-ending wars; the creation of the Fed in 1933; going off the gold standard in 1933 and 1971; the adoption of Keynesian economics (chronic deficit spending); and Bretton-Woods Agreement in 1944, making the fiat dollar the world currency. My students' answer: all of the above! Reinhart and Rogoff conclude that the No. 1 cause was going off the gold standard, which undermined fiscal and monetary discipline. The Fed's 2% Inflation Target is Bogus The fact is, the Fed's 2% target rule is more a policy to fight deflation, rather than to fight inflation. And the government has been much better at fighting deflation than inflation. In modern times, it's hard to find a month or two when the CPI actually declined. Volcker opposed the 2% rule in his book Keeping At It - and for good reason. The Fed is likely to tolerate inflation more than 2%, especially if there's growing fear of a recession, deflation, or a financial crisis. He called the 2% rule "nonsense," and questions whether the CPI is a legitimate measure of inflation. As Volcker points out, there have been periods of prosperity without inflation, such as the 1920s, and the 1950s. The Fed should adopt a policy of real "price stability," no inflation. How? While returning to the gold and silver standards of yesteryear is not likely, one way to tame inflation is to add a Fed policy of monitoring gold and silver prices over the long run, with a goal of stable precious metal prices. Steve Forbes advocates this type of gold standard. And in her book, Good as Gold, Judy Shelton of the Independent Institute supports the U.S. Treasury issuing gold-backed bonds as a way to restore discipline in fiscal and monetary policy. Otherwise there may come a time when Ludwig von Mises is right - "Government is the only agency that can take a valuable commodity like paper, slap some ink on it, and make it totally worthless." Yours for peace, prosperity and liberty, AEIOU, Mark Skousen, Ph.D. P.S. Silver Dollars at FreedomFest I have also started a tradition of inviting attendees who have purchased a silver dollar at FreedomFest to join Steve Forbes, MC Kennedy and other celebrity speakers on stage of the closing panel, and have their picture taken with a silver dollar. It's always a popular event. See the photo below. | | FreedomFest attendees showing MC Kennedy (Fox News) their silver dollars, symbols of liberty and sound money. | | | We'll be doing the silver dollar event again at this year's FreedomFest, July 8-11, 2026, at Caesars Forum Convention Center in Las Vegas. We're calling it "The World's Fair of Liberty." See our newly revised website at www.freedomfest.com. Join me, Steve Forbes, John Mackey (former CEO of Whole Foods Market), Marc Lichtenfeld (Oxford Club) and Kennedy from Fox News, and thousands of like minded patriots as we celebrate the 250th anniversary of our nation's founding. Even George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Ben Franklin will be there! |
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