Tuesday, January 20, 2026

The Era of Permanent Inflation

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The Era of Permanent Inflation

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

I have known and admired Dr. Mark Skousen for 40 years.

He is the author of more than a dozen books, a professional economist, a university professor, the founder of FreedomFest (The World's Largest Libertarian Conference), and a good friend with more than 50 years' experience as an investment analyst.

His often-contrarian ideas are always worth hearing.

I encourage you to read his article below on inflation, silver, and the long-term stability of the U.S. financial system.


The Financial Shock of 2026
By Dr. Mark Skousen

"What is the greatest threat to your investments? Inflation!" - Paul Cabot (Maxims of Wall Street, p. 149)

In early 1981, I wrote my first promotional copy for my new investment newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies. The outside of the envelope said, "The Financial Shock of 1981."

Readers opened the envelope and it read: "Reaganomics will work! Sell your gold and silver, and buy stocks and bonds."

It was a good call, as U.S. Treasuries went on a 40-year run, and stocks are still hitting new highs 45 years later.

If truth be told, my promotion bombed. Why? Because nobody believed me.

Stocks and bonds had been in a 15-year bear market, and gold and silver were roaring ahead. Most investors had no idea that 1981-82 was the end of the Inflationary Seventies and the bottom of the market in stocks and bonds.

In 1981, gold and silver topped out and went on a 20-year bear market. It was a period of disinflation.

But things have changed...

Fast Forward 45 Years Later

In 2026, inflation is back (actually it never left).

For the first time in our financial history, the penny is being phased out because of the gradual loss of purchasing power of the dollar. It now costs three cents to produce a penny. In the future, our grandchildren may not know the meaning of the Ben Franklin maxim, "A penny saved is a penny earned" or "a penny for your thoughts."

Today we see another example of the loss of purchasing power: the American eagle silver dollar (which has a legal tender value of $1) now sells for a Benjamin, a $100 bill! I call it "The Financial Shock of 2026."

Shah on set smiling
 

It's been quite a roller coaster ride for silver. In the early 1960s, you could buy a hardback bestseller in the bookstores for $3 - three silver dollars. Then - due to never-ending inflation and depreciation of the dollar - silver dollars, halves, quarters and dimes started disappearing. And in 1965, the government was forced to go off silver standard. The U.S. Mint started removing silver from our coins.

The coup de grâce came in 1971, when the U.S. went off the gold standard completely. As a result, gold and silver, despite their volatility, have become superior inflation hedges and have outperformed even the U.S. stock market in the 21st century.

Today you can buy a hardback book for less than a Franklin silver half dollar!

We are gradually witnessing the complete victory of fiat paper money over hard money in our monetary system. Thanks to the government's policy of permanent inflation, it won't be long before all coins will be eliminated.

That's why I have recommended you squirrel away gold and silver coins, and include gold, silver, and mining companies in your retirement accounts.

Indeed, my first investment in the early 1970s was not a stock or bond, but gold and silver coins!

And I still recommend precious metals, since we are in a bull market super cycle in commodities.

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"The Era of Permanent Inflation"

I mentioned before that we're in a state of "permanent inflation," but many investors don't realize it - despite the rhetoric of government officials.

Last week Wall Street applauded the report that the Consumer Price Inflation rose at an annualized rate of 2.7%, "less than anticipated," suggesting that the Fed's 2% inflation target is within reach.

The Federal Reserve has a mandate to achieve "price stability" along with "full employment." Today price stability is interpreted to mean a 2% inflation target, based on the CPI.

But a 2% inflation target is, by definition, not "price stability." As former Fed chairman Paul Volcker states, "a 2% inflation rate, successfully maintained, would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation."

Indeed, since World War II, we have entered a period of permanent inflation. This chart, originally created by Harvard economists Carl Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff on the 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve Act, demonstrates dramatically the shift in monetary policy in our 250-year history.

The Permanent Inflation Hypothesis
 

Prior to World War II, inflation was caused temporarily by wars. After the war, inflation came back down.

But that all changed after 1945. I ask my students at Chapman University, "What caused the shift to permanent inflation after World War II?"

There are five possible answers: never-ending wars; the creation of the Fed in 1933; going off the gold standard in 1933 and 1971; the adoption of Keynesian economics (chronic deficit spending); and Bretton-Woods Agreement in 1944, making the fiat dollar the world currency.

My students' answer: all of the above!

Reinhart and Rogoff conclude that the No. 1 cause was going off the gold standard, which undermined fiscal and monetary discipline.

The Fed's 2% Inflation Target is Bogus

The fact is, the Fed's 2% target rule is more a policy to fight deflation, rather than to fight inflation. And the government has been much better at fighting deflation than inflation.

In modern times, it's hard to find a month or two when the CPI actually declined.

Volcker opposed the 2% rule in his book Keeping At It - and for good reason. The Fed is likely to tolerate inflation more than 2%, especially if there's growing fear of a recession, deflation, or a financial crisis. He called the 2% rule "nonsense," and questions whether the CPI is a legitimate measure of inflation.

As Volcker points out, there have been periods of prosperity without inflation, such as the 1920s, and the 1950s. The Fed should adopt a policy of real "price stability," no inflation.

How?

While returning to the gold and silver standards of yesteryear is not likely, one way to tame inflation is to add a Fed policy of monitoring gold and silver prices over the long run, with a goal of stable precious metal prices.

Steve Forbes advocates this type of gold standard. And in her book, Good as Gold, Judy Shelton of the Independent Institute supports the U.S. Treasury issuing gold-backed bonds as a way to restore discipline in fiscal and monetary policy.

Otherwise there may come a time when Ludwig von Mises is right - "Government is the only agency that can take a valuable commodity like paper, slap some ink on it, and make it totally worthless."

Yours for peace, prosperity and liberty, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen, Ph.D.

P.S. Silver Dollars at FreedomFest

I have also started a tradition of inviting attendees who have purchased a silver dollar at FreedomFest to join Steve Forbes, MC Kennedy and other celebrity speakers on stage of the closing panel, and have their picture taken with a silver dollar. It's always a popular event. See the photo below.

Dr. Skousen at FreedomFest
FreedomFest attendees showing MC Kennedy (Fox News) their silver dollars, symbols of liberty and sound money.
 

We'll be doing the silver dollar event again at this year's FreedomFest, July 8-11, 2026, at Caesars Forum Convention Center in Las Vegas. We're calling it "The World's Fair of Liberty." See our newly revised website at www.freedomfest.com.

Join me, Steve Forbes, John Mackey (former CEO of Whole Foods Market), Marc Lichtenfeld (Oxford Club) and Kennedy from Fox News, and thousands of like minded patriots as we celebrate the 250th anniversary of our nation's founding. Even George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Ben Franklin will be there!

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