When the national redistricting wars kicked off over the summer, Republicans held a clear edge: They simply held power in more states where they could control the map-drawing process.
Despite that structural advantage for the GOP, a series of developments over the past two weeks has allowed Democrats to be much more competitive in this fight than initially expected.
Utah: Late last night, a judge rejected a new congressional map drawn by the Legislature that was designed to protect Utah's all-GOP delegation, ruling it violated the state's anti-gerrymandering laws. Instead, the judge approved a separate map that includes a solidly Democratic district based in Salt Lake City.
California: Last Tuesday, California voters approved a new House map that allows Democrats to circumvent the state's independent redistricting commission and potentially pick up an additional five seats in next year's midterm elections. That could offset Republicans' biggest redistricting move thus far in Texas.
Kansas: That same day, Republicans were dealt a setback when
state House Speaker Dan Hawkins said he would not call a special session to consider new district lines, though lawmakers still may take up the issue next year. Republicans would need two-thirds support in the Legislature to overcome opposition from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
Virginia: The Friday before that, Virginia Democratic lawmakers passed a constitutional amendment that gives them the opportunity to bypass the state's bipartisan redistricting commission and redraw the state's congressional boundaries. The measure still needs to pass through a second legislative session next year and then be approved by voters. But the move — which largely came out of nowhere last month — could eventually result in a map that nets Democrats two or three seats.
Ohio: Also on that Friday, lawmakers on Ohio's bipartisan redistricting commission approved a compromise map that favored Republicans but did not go as far as Democrats had feared.
The view from the White House: President Donald Trump's political orbit is grappling with this reality. Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon and Henry J. Gomez report that Trump remains confident he picked the right fight by encouraging Republican-led states to pursue mid-decade redistricting efforts to shore up the party's narrow House majority. In addition to Texas, Missouri and North Carolina have each enacted a new map that aims to give the GOP an extra seat.
But two other Republicans close to the White House told NBC News that there are growing concerns that the juice may not have been worth the squeeze and that, in a nightmare scenario, there'd be a net gain for Democrats.
On top of Democrats' counter-punches, GOP consultant and data scientist John Eakin told NBC News that some Texas Republicans are regretting their aggressive map, worried that overconfidence in the 2024 results for Trump — which he describes as an exception, rather than a reliable baseline — could backfire.
"They should have never drawn maps based on the 2024 outcome. You can't stress test that. You have to find the most vulnerable election and build the premise around that," he said.
Next steps: There are many more shoes yet to drop. Several of the new maps this year are confronting lawsuits and potential ballot referendum campaigns. Indiana Republicans and Maryland Democrats are continuing to face pressure both in their states and nationally to redraw their district lines. States like Florida and New York may still join the fold. And a looming Supreme Court ruling could further open the gerrymandering floodgates, particularly in southern GOP states.
But for now, Democrats are holding their own in the redistricting battle as they set their sights on reclaiming the House majority in 2026.
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