In today's edition, Scott Bland breaks down the key findings from our new national NBC News poll. Plus, we have all the latest from the campaign trail ahead of tomorrow's elections. — Adam Wollner Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive it weekdays. |
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3 takeaways from our new poll |
One year out from the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is getting some serious warning signs from voters on one of his core issues: the economy. That was the top finding in the NBC News' latest national poll, with numerous other results seeming to flow downstream from that deep voter dissatisfaction. Here are the three things that stood out the most. Voters feel let down on the economy. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of registered voters say they feel that Trump has fallen short of their expectations on the economy. You don't need a reference point to tell that's a negative finding for the president, but a previous NBC News poll did provide some notable context. In August 2010, voters gave nearly the same verdict to then-President Barack Obama, months before punishing his party with a red wave midterm election. That's driving a rough early midterm environment. Democrats have the early edge on the question of who voters want to see control Congress after the next election, 50%-42%. It's the party's biggest advantage in NBC News polling since the 2018 midterms. It's also one of the largest leads for Democrats in any polling this year; other surveys have shown a more closely divided political environment, along the lines of the close national elections in 2020, 2022 and 2024.
A note of caution on those early midterm numbers. The Democratic Party brand is still suffering, not only with some Democrats but also with independents. And as our pollsters noted, the particulars of the political environment during a government shutdown can decay rapidly later on in an election cycle, once said shutdown has passed. More voters blame Trump and congressional Republicans (52%) for the shutdown, by the way, but more blame Democrats (42%) than in past years, too.
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Closing time: Candidates make their final pitches before Election Day |
By Bridget Bowman and Adam Edelman |
The candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia crisscrossed their states in the final weekend of the 2025 campaign season, ahead of the first big elections since President Donald Trump's victory in 2024. The races will provide some early answers to questions facing both political parties, from how to navigate the high cost of living to how to appeal to increasingly swingy Latino voters, as well as which side is more energized going into the 2026 midterms. Republicans face a familiar challenge of turning out Trump's coalition when he is not on the ballot, while Democrats are looking for a boost after a demoralizing election last year. In Virginia, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger has consistently led her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, in polling and fundraising throughout the campaign. A more competitive race has formed in New Jersey, according to recent polling, where Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is facing Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator. Both Sherrill and Spanberger were elected to Congress in the party's 2018 midterm blue wave during Trump's first term, and they lived together while serving in the House. The former roommates are now looking to lead their party's electoral pushback against Trump following his return to the White House. "In 2025, it really feels like the important fight is at the state level in these governor's offices, because with the president having the presidency, the GOP having the Senate and the House, and even co-opting the Supreme Court, the last bastion feels like governors' races and governors standing in the breach," Sherrill told NBC News in an interview Friday. While Democrats have brought some high-profile surrogates to their states, Republicans have largely campaigned on their own. Trump has not campaigned in person in either state, despite endorsing Ciattarelli. (Trump has not endorsed Earle-Sears.) But the president is holding two telephone rallies tonight for candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. Both Spanberger and Sherrill had some help from former President Barack Obama at rallies Saturday. Obama appeared with Sherrill in Newark, the state's largest city, amid some concerns about Black voter turnout. In Virginia, Obama rallied supporters in Norfolk and encouraged them to send a message to the rest of the country. Read more from Bridget and Adam → |
More from the campaign trail: California: Multiple Democratic sources in California and in Congress told Scott Wong and Jonathan Allen they believe former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 85, will choose not to seek re-election in 2026 after nearly four decades representing her San Francisco-based district. She is expected to make an announcement about her future after tomorrow's elections, when voters will consider a ballot measure, known as "Proposition 50," that would redraw the state's congressional lines. Another major Democratic proponent of that initiative, Gov. Gavin Newsom, told Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press" that he's "deeply confident" that California voters will approve it. Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is hosting unique elections tomorrow that are consequential, even as they have flown a bit below the radar. Three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices are facing up-or-down "retention" votes to determine whether they can continue to serve on the bench. If all three justices, who are Democrats, lose, it would likely deadlock the battleground state's highest court for two years. One of those three justices, David Wecht, warned in an interview with Jane C. Timm that such an outcome would be "disastrous."
Maine: Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner told Sahil Kapur in an interview that the controversies surrounding him have "strengthened" his campaign. |
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π️ Today's other top stories |
⛔ Shutdown, Day 34: The Trump administration said in court filings that it would use contingency funds to provide partial SNAP benefits in November after a judge ordered the Department of Agriculture to disburse funding for the program. Meanwhile, flight delays are continuing to pile up because of staffing shortages. π¨ Exclusive: The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a new mission to send American troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target drug cartels. Read more → πΊ Deportation agenda: Trump said in an interview with CBS News' "60 Minutes" that he was committed to continuing immigration enforcement raids across the country, saying, "I think they haven't gone far enough." Read more → π€ Pardon me?: Trump also said in the "60 Minutes" interview that he didn't know anything about Changpeng Zhao, the billionaire crypto exchange founder with close ties to the Trump family's own crypto empire — despite the fact that he pardoned him last month. Read more → π₯ͺ Meat of the matter: A jury was selected in the trial of former Justice Department employee Sean Dunn, also known as the "sandwich guy," months after he went viral for throwing a salami sub at a Customs and Border Protection agent in Washington, D.C. Read more → Follow live politics updates → |
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Kornacki: NBC News poll shows Democrats 'opening up a lead' over Republicans on generic ballot |
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