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Sprouts, Darden Offer High-Upside Setups for Risk-Takers
Written by Sam Quirke. Published 9/26/2025.
Key Points
- Both Sprouts Farmers Market and Darden Restaurants have sold off heavily in recent weeks.
- With the RSI for each stock now at multi-year lows, the setups are compelling for risk-hungry investors.
- Continuing analyst support and double-digit upside targets mean these are falling knives that just might be worth catching.
While major equity indices hover near record highs, not all stocks have fared so well. A closer look, especially in non-tech names, reveals many getting punished. For risk-seeking and contrarian investors, that's often where the biggest opportunities lie.
'Catching a falling knife' is risky, but rewards can be massive if timed right. Two stocks fitting that setup are Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (NASDAQ: SFM) and Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI).
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Both have been heavily sold off in recent weeks, pushing their relative strength index (RSI) to multi-year lows. For contrarians who buy when others flee, each setup merits a closer look.
Sprouts Farmers Market: Oversold to Multi-Year Extremes
Since June, Sprouts has plunged about 35%, hitting fresh lows this week. Its RSI sank below 18—the lowest level in over five years.
Despite the selloff, Sprouts' fundamentals remain solid. In its latest quarter, revenue and EPS exceeded consensus, and comparable-store sales accelerated.
Management underscored its confidence by unveiling a $1 billion share repurchase program.
Trading around $115, Sprouts sits significantly below recent analyst ratings. Last month, Wells Fargo upgraded coverage to Overweight with a $180 target, while Evercore ISI set a $190 target—each implying over 50% upside from Wednesday's close.
Of course, the stock could decline further before finding a base. But extreme RSI readings often mark turning points. Could fortune favor the bold?
Darden Restaurants: Analyst Support Strengthens
Since June, Darden—the owner of Olive Garden—has slid roughly 20%, with last week's Q1 earnings miss driving an additional 10% decline.
That drop pushed its RSI to 20, the lowest level in more than five years.
While concerns over margin pressures weighed on the stock, the worst of the selloff may already be priced in.
After the earnings report, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Evercore ISI reiterated Buy-equivalent ratings, citing Darden's scale, pricing flexibility, and cost discipline as foundations for future growth to keep growing.
Analyst forecasts now top out as high as $240—a nearly 30% gain from Wednesday's close. And unlike Sprouts, Darden appears to be stabilizing, offering evidence that selling pressure may have passed.
The Macro Environment Remains Favorable
At first glance, both charts might scream "stay away." Yet such setups often attract contrarian investors. With interest rates falling and major indices near record highs, risk appetite is strong. Investors are hunting for asymmetric upside, and both Sprouts and Darden fit the bill.
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