| The following GAIN reports were released on September 5, 2025. _______ Post forecasts 2026 chicken meat imports to grow modestly by 4 percent to 270,000 metric tons, reflecting a gradual recovery amid easing currency pressures and stable demand. Angola's poultry sector is projected to grow, with domestic production rising 9 percent to 60,000 metric tons thanks to investments boosting local supply. Despite challenges such as limited feed and infrastructure, local production is gaining ground because importing chicken strains currency reserves. Consumption is expected to increase by 5 percent, supported by improved purchasing power from wage hikes and falling inflation. Chicken meat production is forecast one percent higher in 2026, based on stable demand, adequate domestic supply, and steady imports. The overall 2026 import TRQ volumes will approach 121,600 metric tons, with the United States expected to maintain more than 80 percent share of total Canadian chicken meat imports. In 2025, as the only country taking advantage of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) poultry tariff rate quota (TRQ) and as a new emerging supplier, Chile continued to gain import market share, a trend expected to continue into 2026. Post forecasts stable pork production in 2026 and reduced pork imports due to abundant domestic supplies. Post anticipates lower beef production and slightly higher imports to meet demand in price-sensitive segments. Retaliatory tariffs and unresolved facility registration issues continue to limit U.S. meat access to the Chinese market. Japan's beef industry faces challenges in 2026 as the domestic cattle herd declines, resulting in reduced slaughter and inventory. Rising beef prices, outpacing income growth, weaken consumer demand, making beef less accessible. Fast-food chains may benefit, but other sectors will struggle. Beef imports may rise slightly to offset stagnant production but remain limited due to weak demand, depreciation of the yen, and high costs. Meanwhile, Japan's pork market remains resilient, with stable swine inventory and strong consumption driven by affordability. Pork imports, which slowed in late 2025, are expected to rebound in 2026 to meet demand. The United States is the largest supplier of imported pork to Japan, as well as the second largest for beef. FAS Pretoria forecasts a two percent increase in chicken meat production, reaching 1.68 million tons in Marketing Year (MY) 2026 (January to December 2026). This growth is driven by lower feed prices following the recovery of the local grains harvest in MY 2025/2026. FAS Pretoria estimates a four percent rise in chicken meat production for MY 2025, reflecting full recovery from the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreak that severely impacted the industry in 2023. FAS Pretoria forecasts that chicken meat consumption will increase marginally to 1.92 million tons in 2026, driven by higher supplies that are expected to ease prices. FAS Pretoria forecasts that South Africa's poultry imports will decrease by five percent to 308,000 tons in 2026, driven by protectionist policies including anti-dumping duties and high tariffs that limit the competitiveness and market access of imported poultry. The United States was one of the smallest new world suppliers to Ukraine in 2024; however, it has been the fastest growing, doubling its market share in the last decade. After a significant drop in 2022 due to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine's wine market strongly recovered in 2023 and 2024 and continued its growth in 2025. U.S. wine exports exceeded $1.1 million in 2024 and grew by 40 percent in the first five months of 2025. Industry notes per capita consumption is growing in Ukraine. Chicken meat production in the UAE is projected to rise steadily, reaching 75,000 metric tons (MT) by 2026, supported by government feed subsidies, new large-scale poultry operations, and investments in agricultural technology. However, domestic output will continue to meet only about 15 percent of consumption, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports (forecast at 410,000 MT for 2026). Consumption growth, estimated at 480,000 MT by 2026, will be driven by population gains, real estate expansion, tourism, and a burgeoning gross domestic product. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. | 
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