| The following GAIN reports were released on August 28-29, 2025. _______ Sunflower seed production in Brazil remains relatively small compared to major oilseeds but has gained strategic importance as a rotation crop, especially in the Central-West region. Following a period of decline caused by high input costs and competition from second-crop corn, the sector rebounded in 2022, with planted area projected to more than double by 2025. Goiás has emerged as the leading producer, benefiting from favorable climate, soil conditions, and institutional support. Despite ongoing challenges—including limited infrastructure, weather risks, and pest pressure—rising domestic demand, health-conscious consumer trends, and global supply disruptions have strengthened the sector's long-term outlook, suggesting modest growth over the next decade. This report summarizes regulatory barriers faced by Burmese importers, sector-specific trade flows for U.S. products to Burma, and future outlook for U.S. exports to the market. On July 8, 2025, Ontario announced its decision to proceed with domestic bio-based content requirements for both diesel fuel and gasoline in the Ontario market. At least 75 percent of the renewable content required in diesel fuel and 64 percent of the renewable content required in gasoline must be produced in Canada. This makes Ontario the second province in Canada to announce domestic content requirements. According to Canadian industry, Ontario's decision to adopt the new rules was motivated by the Canadian federal government's nonresponse to the U.S. Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit (45Z). Pork production is forecast to grow modestly to 590,000 MT CWE in 2026, driven by productivity improvements rather than infrastructure expansion, while exports to key markets like China are expected to rise by two percent. Chicken production will increase to 740,000 MT RTC in 2026, supported by efficiency gains, with exports growing and imports declining. Beef production remains steady at 200,000 MT CWE, constrained by drought and competition from imports, which meet 70 percent of domestic consumption. Across all three commodities, consumption growth is marginal, reflecting stable economic conditions and limited domestic production expansion. Beef (primarily carabeef, i.e. meat derived from Asian domestic water buffalo) production in 2026 is expected to be driven by domestic needs while export demand is likely to take a back seat. 2026 beef production is forecast at 4.7 million metric tons (MMT), up one percent from 4.6 MMT in 2025. 2026 beef exports are forecast to reach 1.55 MMT, up by one percent over 2025. Expectations of steady exports to Malaysia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, as well as sluggish exports to Indonesia, Vietnam, and Iraq, are behind the weak export growth forecast. Domestic consumption is forecast at 3.2 MMT, up two percent over 2025. A growing population, stable and low inflation, rising household income, and large supply of slaughter-ready cattle are driving production and consumption growth. New Delhi (Post) forecasts India's cattle beginning stock for calendar year (CY) 2026 at 307.5 million head. Cotton production in Mexico is projected to decline in marketing year 2025/26 as farmers reduce planted area amid low international prices, higher input costs, and limited access to improved seed varieties. Domestic consumption is expected to remain steady, while imports are forecast to increase to offset lower domestic production. Exports are expected to decline due to tight supply and weak global prices. The South Africa Ministry of Agriculture has opened a public comment period on revised regulations relating to the classification, packing, and marking of dairy products and imitation dairy products intended for sale in the Republic of South Africa. All interested parties are invited to submit comments on the proposed revised regulations in writing by 30 September 2025. With hundreds of miles of Mediterranean coastline and a significant tourism industry focused on the sea, there is strong demand for seafood in Tunisia. Over the past 20 years, Tunisia's domestic aquaculture industry has grown to meet this demand, and so has demand for feed grains. Tunisia's aquaculture production rose from 3,000 MT two decades ago to 23,000 MT in 2024 - and is projected to reach 35,000 MT in 2030. Aquaculture increasingly replaces wild catch in Tunisian diets. The leading varieties in terms of quantity and value are sea bass and sea bream. Post updated its marketing year (MY) 2025/26 oilseed planted area estimates on official Ukrainian data and MY2025/26 rapeseed production on actual harvest information. Ukraine is introducing 10 percent export duties for rapeseed and soybeans, which may affect the crush-to-production ratio, particularly for soybeans in MY2025/26. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. | 
No comments:
Post a Comment