Opinion Today: Think you know how the next four years will go? You don’t.

Adam Grant on why you can't see far enough ahead to trust the image in your mind's eye.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 16, 2024 Humans may be the only species that can imagine an unknown future. But that doesn't mean we're any good at it. Chris Mollon By Adam Grant Dr. Grant, a contributing Opinion writer, is an organizational psychologist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Last week Americans were united by a shared experience of holding our breath. No matter who won the presidential election, we knew that about half the country would be celebrating and the other would be grieving. But as I write in my guest essay, those reactions are not an accurate gauge of what will happen. Predicting is hard. Even people who excel in forecasting tournaments are frequently wrong. On Election Day this year, a superforecaster who anticipated Donald Trump's rise in 2015 gave Kamala Harris an 87 percent chance of winning. Based on history, he factored incumbency as a strong positive, but in our turbulent times, it turned out to be a strong negative. After Trump won, the lexicographer Susie Dent posted that the word of the moment was "recrudescence": "the return of something terrible after a time of reprieve." For those who view Trump as a terrible leader and a terrible person, it's easy to fixate on everything that could go wrong in the short run. But we shouldn't overlook what might go right in the long run. For Democrats, this could be a "woke-up" call — a case for stopping the moral grandstanding that alienated many persuadable voters. It could be a burning platform to institute reforms that strengthen democracy, from term limits on the Supreme Court to new voting procedures. It could be a catalyst to educate the majority of voters who preferred Harris's policies to Trump's but didn't know them. It could be an opportunity to fight for policies that are widely supported by both conservatives and liberals, from criminal and mental illness background checks for gun sales to de-escalation training for police officers to mandatory cognitive exams for presidents. My essay is about the importance of accepting uncertainty about what's next. But there are actions we can take to reduce that uncertainty. As the computer scientist Alan Kay has said, "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." READ THE FULL ESSAY HERE Guest Essay If You're Sure How the Next Four Years Will Play Out, I Promise: You're Wrong You can't see far enough ahead to trust the image in your mind's eye. By Adam Grant THE WEEK IN BIG IDEAS M. Gessen This Is the Dark, Unspoken Promise of Trump's Return Liberal democracy offers moral constraints without problem-solving. Populism offers problem-solving without moral constraints. By M. Gessen Michelle Goldberg Matt Gaetz Is the Perfect Man for the Job Trump's choice to lead the Justice Department is a flagrant provocation that is, like a pulpy B movie, so bad it's good. By Michelle Goldberg Guest Essay Humans Are Divided and Unhappy. What Better Time to Contact Alien Life? Fifty years ago, the famed Arecibo message was fired into space to make contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. Now is the time to try again. By Douglas Vakoch David Wallace-Wells Climate Change Is Losing Its Grip on Our Politics Trump's election merely confirms a shift that's been happening for years. By David Wallace-Wells We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. Games Here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle and Spelling Bee. If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Forward this newsletter to friends to share ideas and perspectives that will help inform their lives. They can sign up here. Do you have feedback? Email us at opiniontoday@nytimes.com. If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other issues, visit our Help Page or contact The Times. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Opinion Today newsletter from The New York Times. To stop receiving Opinion Today, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018