Upshot: Where polls can go wrong

Also: The state of third-party candidates

View in browser|nytimes.com October 17, 2024 Illustration by Mel Haasch Where Polls Can Mess Up (and What Pollsters Do About It) Conducting a poll isn't an exact science. The process is susceptible to lots of common problems and baked-in biases — more than just the "margin of error." By Kaleigh Rogers Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com. If you have a compelling data set you'd like us to pursue, send it to dear.upshot@nytimes.com. WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS FROM UPSHOT FRIENDS The New York Times In a Tight Presidential Race, Third-Party Candidates Present a Wild Card In every battleground state this year, there is at least one third-party or independent candidate on the ballot. The Democrats have been more openly concerned than Republicans. By Rebecca Davis O'Brien and Taylor Robinson The New York Times Where Are Trump and Harris Campaigning? Here's where the candidates are spending their time in the final weeks of the 2024 presidential race. Bridget Bennett for The New York Times Most Voters Have Been Offended by Trump. It's Not Always a Deal Breaker. Voters who said they had been offended by Donald J. Trump, but not recently, supported him by a wide margin. By Ruth Igielnik IN CASE YOU MISSED IT The New York Times If Trump Wins, Could He Really Use the Justice Department to Jail His Rivals? How might a politically motivated prosecution actually unfold? These steps show exactly how Trump could make his threats real — all while staying within the constitutional limits on presidential power. By Emily Bazelon, Marco Hernandez, Mattathias Schwartz and Bill Marsh Damon Winter/The New York Times Guest Essay The Real Trump Mystery How is it possible that the former president has a reasonable chance of winning the election despite all that voters now know about him? By Thomas B. Edsall Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up here. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for The Upshot from The New York Times. To stop receiving The Upshot, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018