Thursday, October 17, 2024

The Morning: Against nihilism

Plus, Kamala Harris on Fox, surrogacy in Italy and Liam Payne.
The Morning

October 17, 2024

Good morning. We're covering the power of government policies — as well as Kamala Harris on Fox, surrogacy in Italy and Liam Payne.

Two children walking up the steps at the Capitol building.
In Washington, D.C. Kent Nishimura for The New York Times

Against nihilism

We live in a time of cynicism about what government can accomplish. Most Americans say they don't have much trust in Washington, regardless of which party is in charge. Even when the federal government sets out to do something that Americans support, many wonder whether it can succeed.

In today's newsletter, I want to connect four news stories from the past few years and argue that this cynicism has gone too far — that government can indeed accomplish what it promises. I recognize some readers will support the policies I describe, while others will oppose them. But that's OK. I'm not trying to persuade you that these policies are good or bad.

The point instead is that the U.S. federal government remains a powerful force that can alter the course of American life. The country has the capacity to address its biggest problems. Whether it does is a different matter.

1. The Covid vaccine

The pandemic was so miserable and divisive that it can be easy to overlook the triumph of the federal government's vaccine development. Before Covid, the creation of any new vaccine took years. But Operation Warp Speed — a public-private partnership that received $18 billion in federal funding — led to the discovery of a Covid vaccine within months. That speed likely saved millions of lives worldwide.

Yes, the pandemic was also a case study of government failure. Republican politicians (including Donald Trump, who deserves some credit for Warp Speed) refused to embrace the vaccines, leading to hesitancy that cost lives. And many Democratic-run school districts shut down for a year or longer, causing lasting damage to children.

All of this, though, was a reminder of the power of government, for good and ill.

2. Immigration

In the debate over immigration, you sometimes hear the suggestion that the U.S. is powerless to change migration flows. "Border Enforcement Won't Solve the U.S. Migrant Crisis," as a typical op-ed argued in 2022. One way or another, according to this argument, people will find ways to enter the U.S.

But that argument is mostly wrong, as the past four years show.

President Biden took office promising a more welcoming approach to immigration than any president in decades. Sure enough, immigration surged. During the first three years of Biden's administration, annual net immigration (the number of people arriving, regardless of legal status, minus the number of immigrants leaving) averaged 2.4 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That's about three times as high as during Trump's presidency. It's more than twice as high as under Barack Obama.

Late last year, Biden changed course. The administration first worked with Mexico to reduce migration flows and then tightened border policies, as my colleague Hamed Aleaziz has explained. Almost as quickly as immigration spiked in 2021, it has fallen in 2024:

This chart shows monthly encounters at the Southwest border starting at 72,000 in 2020, spiking to 302,000 at the end of 2023, and dropping to 108,000 by August of 2024.
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection | by The New York Times

A restrictive approach to border security won't keep out everybody, but it makes a huge difference. Many experts believe that the ideal immigration system would involve both a more secure border and more legal pathways to entry. That combination is well within Congress's power.

3. Economic policy

Biden's economic record is obviously mixed. But he made a set of specific promises about using the federal government to rebuild infrastructure, reduce medical costs, promote clean energy and expand certain kinds of manufacturing. In each of these cases, it's happening.

New semiconductor factories are being built in Arizona, Missouri, Texas and elsewhere. Roads and bridges are being rebuilt. The cost of insulin has plunged for many people. Clean energy production has increased.

Biden's industrial policy has been a reminder of the vital role that the federal government has historically played in creating industries like aviation, biotechnology, fracking and the internet.

4. Taxes

As with immigration, you sometimes hear the claim that federal laws don't much matter — and particularly that the wealthy can find ways to avoid any tax increases. That's not correct.

After Obama raised taxes on wealthy Americans, they paid more in taxes. After Bill Clinton raised income taxes at the start of his presidency, the same thing happened. And after Clinton later cut capital-gains taxes, tax payments fell.

The chart illustrates a general decline of average tax rates for the top 400 taxpayers from 47.2 percent in 1980 to 23 percent in 2018, with significant reductions during the Reagan and Bush administrations, a slight increase during the Clinton and Obama years, and a steep drop in 2018 under Trump.
Source: Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman | by The New York Times

If Democrats control both the White House and Congress next year, they really will be able to increase taxes on the rich. And if Republicans sweep into power, they will cut taxes on the rich.

The bottom line: The fact that governments remain powerful forces even in a globalized, digitized economy doesn't answer many of the hard questions about what policymakers should do, of course. But it at least offers an antidote to the nihilism that sometimes dominates political debates.

THE LATEST NEWS

Democratic Campaign

Kamala Harris gives a speech in front of a barnlike building, flanked by two groups of people on either side.
In Washington Crossing, Pa. Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Republican Campaign

Former President Donald J. Trump standing at a lectern on a stage.
Donald Trump Anna Watts for The New York Times
  • Trump has criticized Harris for once backing taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for inmates and migrants. But during Trump's presidency, his appointees offered inmates transgender medical treatments.
  • Trump, at an event with female voters, declared himself the "father of I.V.F." He only began making promises about the treatment this year.
  • Trump's campaign has engaged in creative accounting to maximize ad spending. It treats his rallies as fund-raisers and lists just 11 people on payroll.
  • Republicans who have questioned the 2020 election results are running for Congress. If they win, they'll play a role in certifying the results this year.

More on Politics

  • The pandemic forced musicians off the campaign trail in 2020. Now they're back.
  • Only half of the women and children eligible for a large federal food program are enrolled. To reach more families, the program is adding items like blue corn tortillas and naan to its menu.
  • Three presidents — Biden, Obama and Clinton — eulogized Ethel Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy's widow, who died last week at 96.

Supreme Court

International

Two women stand in a crowd, one of whom has a flag draped around her shoulders and holds a heart-shaped sign painted with horizontal rainbow-colored stripes and a slogan in Italian.
At a pro-surrogacy news conference in Rome.  Alessandra Tarantino/Associated Press

Other Big Stories

Liam Payne Andreas Rentz/Getty Images
  • The pop singer Liam Payne, a former member of One Direction, fell to his death from a hotel balcony in Buenos Aires. He was 31.
  • The Archdiocese of Los Angeles has agreed to pay $880 million to people who say they were abused by Catholic clergy.
  • Tech companies like Microsoft and Google need more electricity to power their A.I. businesses. They're investing in nuclear.
  • Columbia University has temporarily barred a vocal pro-Israel professor from campus, saying he harassed the school's employees. He said the university had not done enough to crack down on pro-Palestinian protests.

Opinions

A scrolling reel of images including a female medic, an ultrasound, a woman knocking at a door and two women traveling.

Times Opinion asked doctors and patients how the end of Roe has changed their lives. Hear their stories, in their own words.

Daron Acemoglu, who won this year's Nobel in economics, writes that our aging population, the rise of A.I. and an end to globalization will soon reshape the U.S. economy.

Here are columns by Thomas Edsall on Trump's bigotry and Charles Blow on patriarchal Black men.

A subscription to match the variety of your interests.

News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today.

MORNING READS

A mountain biker in the air, while riding down a steep and craggy slope.
In Virgin, Utah. Alex Goodlett for The New York Times

Taking the leap: For the first time, women participated in mountain biking's scariest (and most lucrative) event.

Atlanta wings: Korean American hot wings have gotten harder to find. But you can make them at home.

What it costs: A farmer in upstate New York explains why that perfect jack-o'-lantern pumpkin is worth $13.50.

Storm dogs: People are more likely to foster and adopt shelter animals after a disaster. Read what to know.

Lives Lived: Leif Segerstam led Finland's principal orchestras, becoming an unequaled interpreter of Sibelius. He also mystified his countrymen, in part by writing 371 symphonies — 14 in a single summer. He died at 80.

SPORTS

Sabrina Ionescu's buzzer-beater.  ESPN

Sabrina Ionescu: The New York Liberty star hit the winner in Game 3 of the W.N.B.A. Finals against the Minnesota Lynx.

W.N.B.A.: Caitlin Clark became the first rookie since 2008 to make the All-W.N.B.A. First Team.

M.L.B.: Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers exploded for eight runs in a blowout win over the Mets in the N.L.C.S. Read a recap.

ARTS AND IDEAS

The illustration shows white paper cutouts of two children standing on stacks of books to reach the top of the ballot box, into which the child on the right is depositing a ballot. The background is red, blue and purple.
Sebastian König

Election Day is less than three weeks away. To prepare your kids, and yourself, the Book Review has a selection of children's literature and audiobooks to better understand America's current moment. The picks include "Unbought and Unbossed," a memoir by Shirley Chisolm, and "Thank You for Voting," a children's book about the history of voting in the United States.

More on culture

  • Prada and Axiom Space presented their spacesuit design, which NASA's astronauts are scheduled to wear on the moon in 2026.
  • Jimmy Kimmel joked about Trump's women-focused event: "One lucky lady was named Miss Fox News Town Hall '24, so congratulations."

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A close-up of dumplings topped with Parmesan and an orange-brown sauce.
Armando Rafael for The New York Times

Use leftover pumpkin purée in this dumpling dish.

Deal with your fear of dentists. Here's how.

Keep warm with an insulated vest.

Create a website.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was continuity.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David

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Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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