Opinion Today: The (tiny) places the election could be decided

To understand a race this close, we need to look closer.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 21, 2024 By Quoctrung Bui and John Guida Deputy editor, Opinion graphics, and senior staff editor, Opinion politics With Election Day approaching, polling shows a very close race, particularly in the battleground states where the outcome will be determined. In Opinion, we continue to look at innovative ways of telling the story of the 2024 election. Patrick Ruffini's series of granular, data-heavy reports from swing states offered the potential for something different, so we invited him to collaborate. The resulting guest essay argues that we need to get down to precinct levels to grasp what's going on in the race and how Donald Trump or Kamala Harris might win it. In it, Ruffini guides us through 21 microcommunities in four swing states that could hold the key to the race. In a brief Q. and A., we dug into this distinct approach to political geography with him a bit further. Q: What is the value of using microcommunities as a lens for the presidential race? A: I think of these as a better unit of analysis than counties because they give you a pure distillation of a certain kind of place, a high-income suburb or a rural working-class community. Inside these communities, different precincts tend to behave the same way, either in their partisan loyalties or their shifts from election to election. And when you group like communities together, you get a clearer sense of how powerful different voting blocs are in a state and what the candidates need to do as a result to win the state. Q: Of these, which one or two represent the most important demographic shifts since 2020? A: There's a big question mark right now of whether we'll actually see a racial realignment with nonwhite voters moving in the direction of Trump. If so, that'll be felt most acutely in the Sun Belt states, and especially among Phoenix-area Latinos and among rural African Americans in North Carolina's Black Belt. Q: Beyond the states we cover in the piece, are there one or two microcommunities that you find particularly critical to understanding the race? A: Trump looks like he's ahead by a point or two in Georgia, but I wouldn't count Harris out completely because of the dramatic demographic change that's happened with African Americans moving into the Atlanta area. In Michigan, Arab communities in places like Dearborn will cast about 1 percent of the state's vote, but could shift pretty substantially and move the state's margin by almost a half point. Read the guest essay: Sebastian Siadecki for The New York Times Forget Swing States. It's These 21 Microcommunities That Could Decide the Election. A look at the political microcommunities that could decide the 2024 presidential election. 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By John Della Volpe Kirsty O'Connor/PA Images, via Getty Images Who's Afraid of William Shakespeare? We will always need the works of the Bard, especially in moments of conflict and unrest. By Drew Lichtenberg We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. Games Here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle and Spelling Bee. If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Forward this newsletter to friends to share ideas and perspectives that will help inform their lives. They can sign up here. Do you have feedback? Email us at opiniontoday@nytimes.com. If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other issues, visit our Help Page or contact The Times. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Opinion Today newsletter from The New York Times. To stop receiving Opinion Today, unsubscribe. 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