EU milk production in 2025 is forecast to decline marginally to 149.4 million metric tons (MMT), from an estimated 149.6 MMT in 2024, as a result of declining cow numbers, tight dairy farmer margins, environmental regulations, and disease outbreaks. Lower milk production is expected to be only partially offset by lower expected fluid milk consumption, and as a result factory use consumption is also forecast to slightly decrease in 2025. This is requiring dairy processors to carefully decide for which products they will use the available milk. Cheese production is forecast to remain the primary output goal of the EU dairy processing industry, supported by solid domestic consumption and continued export demand. EU27 cheese production in 2025 is forecast to reach 10.8 MMT, up by 0.6 percent from 2024. This comes at the expense of the production of butter, non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and whole milk powder (WMP).
On October 16 the Hong Kong Government (HKG) announced a significant reduction in the duty on imported alcoholic beverages with an alcohol content above 30 percent by volume. The new policy reduces the duty from a flat 100 percent tax to a tiered duty in which the initial value up to HKD $200 ($25.64) per liter remains at 100 percent, while the duty on value above HKD $200 ($25.64) per liter is reduced to 10 percent. The reduction was included in the HKG's annual policy address, which focused on measures to spur economic activity in the region, particularly as it relates to investment and tourism. The lower duty is expected to support greater consumption of distilled spirits and is particularly beneficial to premium brands.
Although Hungary regained its avian influenza-free status on July 3, 2024, the disease has returned. In October 2024, animal health authorities confirmed primary outbreaks of the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in five counties. The epidemic is sweeping across Eastern Hungary and it also appeared in the Transdanubian region. Control and quarantine measures are in place, but further cases are expected around the affected localities and in the neighboring counties as they are along stopover spots of migratory birds.
Mexico's dairy market is forecast to expand in 2025. Higher milk and dairy ingredient availability are expected to increase domestic cheese and butter production. Enhanced minimum wages and social support programs, combined with higher dairy product use in the processing sectors are expected to increase consumption. Cheese, butter, and milk powder imports are forecast to increase to supplement domestic production.
The competent Mexican authorities which regulate food and agricultural imports and/or require official U.S. export certificates include the Secretariat of Agriculture (SADER), Secretariat of Health (SALUD), Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), and the Secretariat of the Treasury and Public Credit (HACIENDA) No significant changes occurred vis-à-vis Mexican import standards and regulations in 2023.
Porcine semen is now eligible to be exported to South Africa from the United States. This opens a growing market where U.S. exporters can now compete with genetics from Netherlands, Denmark, Canada and Ireland. The pig breeds that are currently found in South Africa include Landrace, Large white, Chester white, Duroc, Hampshire, Large black, Kolbroek and Pietran. In 2023, South Africa imported $166,000 in porcine semen.
This report provides an unofficial translation of Vietnam's Government Decree 120/2024, issued on September 30, 2024. This decree revises and amends certain articles in Decree 102/2020, which regulates the Vietnam Timber Legality Assurance System (VNTLAS). Decree 120/2024 establishes regulations for importing and exporting timber based on a risk-based approach and will take effect on November 15, 2024.
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