The Morning: Ukraine’s new hope

Plus, Columbia University, bird flu and Lord Byron.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story April 22, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering the new aid package for Ukraine — plus Columbia University, bird flu and Lord Byron. Fighting in eastern Ukraine. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times Help is on the way You have probably read that the war in Ukraine is a stalemate. But conditions have changed in recent months — in Russia's favor. It has captured more territory, and it seems likely to launch a larger offensive later this spring or summer. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to fight back has deteriorated since the U.S. largely stopped sending aid in December. The $60 billion in Ukraine aid that the House passed over the weekend has the potential to change the situation yet again. The Senate is likely to pass the bill in the coming days, and President Biden has signaled that he will sign it. In today's newsletter, I'll explain how the aid package could affect the war. Ukraine's needs American funds will help Ukraine restock two things that have played pivotal roles in the war: artillery shells and antiaircraft munitions. The war has often revolved around artillery, which are large guns that armies use to fire explosive shells and hit targets from a great distance. Both sides have used artillery to kill troops and destroy tanks and bunkers from miles away, weakening the enemy before an attack. Artillery has also stopped advancing armies. In recent months, though, Ukraine has started to run out of artillery shells. Russian forces have fired five to 10 times as many shells as Ukraine. "That's just not sustainable," my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, told me. "Ukraine would eventually have to give up territory and pull back." In the Donetsk region of Ukraine.  Nicole Tung for The New York Times Ukraine has also relied on antiaircraft weapons, such as U.S.-made Patriot missiles, that can shoot down planes and missiles. The threat of these weapons has kept Russia from unleashing the full might of its air force, because it fears that Ukraine would destroy its expensive planes. Russia has instead resorted to long-range missiles, and Ukraine has shot down many of them. But Ukraine had started to run out of those munitions, too. Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Ukraine's short supplies for its inability to stop a Russian missile barrage that killed at least 17 people north of Kyiv. "This would not have happened if Ukraine had received enough air defense equipment," Zelensky said. The new artillery and anti-air munitions will start to arrive in Ukraine just days after the bill becomes law. The $60 billion will pay for several months' worth of weapons. Some of the aid will also go for training. That support will help address another Ukrainian shortage — in personnel — by allowing the military to prepare newer recruits for the front lines more quickly. It will also help teach Ukraine's forces how to use some of the advanced weapons they have previously received from Western allies, including Abrams tanks and F-16 jets. What comes next Once the aid starts arriving, Ukraine is likely to put it to work on the eastern front, where Russia has recently taken the city of Avdiivka. It could halt Russia's recent progress and prevent much larger advances. Some analysts have worried that an undersupplied Ukraine would struggle to defend the countryside around Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city, after Kyiv, and its remaining territory along the Black Sea coastline. By The New York Times "With more aid, Ukraine will probably be able to solidify its defenses and keep its most important cities," said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence and national security. If all goes well, Ukraine could launch an offensive campaign in 2025, perhaps to retake territory in the country's east and southeast. One important goal: to drive a wedge between Russia's holdings in the eastern region of the Donbas and the southern peninsula of Crimea. Ukraine's official goal is to retake all of the Donbas and Crimea. Many experts are skeptical that Ukraine can do that, especially after last year's disappointing counteroffensive. And some critics of the aid package argue that it won't even allow Ukraine to stop Russia's advance. Senator J.D. Vance, an Ohio Republican, says that U.S. manufacturing can't currently keep pace with Russian weapons production. The war simply matters more to Russia than the West, and Russia is dedicating more resources to it, these critics have argued. Still, most experts believe the additional aid will make a meaningful difference. They worry that an easier Russian victory could encourage it to invade other countries, or encourage China to invade Taiwan, by undermining confidence in the U.S. and its allies. The most realistic scenario for Ukraine is probably not a return to the prewar borders. The nation would be smaller, but it could retain most of its territory, then integrate itself economically and strategically with Europe. That's a lot better than outright defeat. For more Ukraine is building trenches and laying obstacles called dragon's teeth to fend off Russian attacks. These graphics show the defenses. The Donbas region was an industrial hub for Ukraine. It's now the focal point for Russia's ground offensives. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Trump Trial The opening statements in Donald Trump's criminal trial in New York will be heard today. There is a lot of evidence against him, but a conviction isn't assured. Two prospective jurors who were excused talked to The Times about their experience. One had his social media posts analyzed. In a video, a Times court reporter, Kate Christobek, explains what to expect. 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His former employees say it is also full of bounced paychecks. The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame inducted artists including Cher and A Tribe Called Quest. An original "Star Trek" Enterprise model was discovered on eBay decades after it disappeared around 1979. It has been returned to the son of the series' creator. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Romulo Yanes for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Vivian Lui. Try Katharine Hepburn's famous brownie recipe. Stream these action movies. Eat at the best restaurants in Austin. Dress with sophistication. Locate your keys with a Bluetooth tracker. Test your home's water quality. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was immunized. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018