News Information and Media Site: Biden's recent wins haven't translated into higher poll numbers

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman and Alexandra Marquez

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

FIRST READ

Public hasn't rewarded Biden for his string of victories – at least not yet

Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images

If it's TUESDAY… President Biden signs the Respect for Marriage Act into law at 3:30 pm ET… Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried gets arrested in the Bahamas… Ruben Gallego takes another step toward AZ-SEN bid, per NBC's Ryan Nobles and Haley Talbot … Republicans hit the ground running to defeat Joe Manchin in WV-SEN, NBC's Allan Smith writes… And NBC's Decision Desk calls the final midterm race of 2022 – for Republican Lauren Boebert in CO-3 after the state completed its mandatory recount.

But FIRST… President Biden has enjoyed quite the run over the past month.

The Democrats' surprising midterm victories. Legislative wins (like the Respective for Marriage Act he signs into law today). Brittney Griner's return home.

Those successes, however, haven't translated into a significantly stronger standing with the American public – with the 2024 presidential race about to begin next year.

Gallup had Biden's approval rating at 40% after the midterms, which is exactly where it was before the 2022 elections.

CNBC's most recent poll had Biden's approval at 41%.

And CNN has him at 46% – up from 41% before the election.

What's more, when looking ahead to 2024, the CNBC poll found 70% of Americans (including 57% of Democrats) believing Biden shouldn't run for re-election, compared with 61% of Americans (and 37% of Republicans) who don't want Donald Trump to seek the presidency.

Of course, we just had an election where Democrats outperformed expectations despite Biden's low poll numbers and the overall fundamentals. (Then again, the story of the midterms might have been more how Donald Trump and his endorsed candidates were even more unpopular than Biden was.)

And while that CNBC poll has a majority of Democrats not wanting Biden to run for re-election, his standing inside his party is strong – there's likely no serious primary challenger if he runs.

Still, the overall public hasn't rewarded Biden for his recent string of victories.

At least not yet.

Quote of the day

"I would like to start by formally stating under oath: I f—ed up."

—Newly arrested crypto-CEO Samuel Bankman-Fried, in a draft copy of the remarks to Congress he was scheduled to deliver before his arrest, per Bloomberg News.

Data Download: The number of the day is ... 546

That's how many more votes GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert received than her Democratic challenger, Adam Frisch, per the results of an automatic recount that Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold announced Monday. The recount found a four-vote difference from November's result. With the recount over, NBC News' Decision Desk has projected Boebert is the winner, meaning all of the House races from the 2022 midterms have now been called.

That means Republicans are projected to have a nine-seat majority come January, with 222 GOP members to Democrats' 213. It also means that in 2024, Democrats need a net gain of just five seats to take back control of the chamber – the same amount of seats Republicans needed to gain control in 2022.

Other numbers you need to know today

One week

The length of a stopgap government funding bill senators are considering as talks for a full-year spending bill continue.

$32 million

The amount of money spent by two previously secretive progressive organizations to oppose election-doubting Republicans, Politico reports.

The number of bills already pre-filed in the Texas legislature to alter the state's voting laws.

11 million

The amount of people under winter weather advisories from California to Wisconsin as a massive winter storm is expected to hit huge swaths of the U.S.

$10.7 billion

The combined settlement amount that CVS and Walgreens must pay for their alleged role in the opioid crisis in the U.S.

How many members of Congress former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows texted with as part of an effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election, per Talking Points Memo.

Blog / Meet The Press

Midterm roundup: Gallego takes another step toward Senate bid

Francis Chung/ POLITICO via AP file

Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., has hardly hid his interest in running for Senate, even before Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she was leaving the Democratic Party. But as he told NBC News' Ryan Nobles and Haley Talbot last night, he's taking another step toward a bid.

"I'm a good Marine so I've been preparing for this, bringing people on, meeting the right people and, you know, making sure that we're gonna be able to do – to be able to, you know, go right away [when] we make a decision," he said.

Gallego went on to add that he believes if Sinema runs, "it will almost ensure the fact that the Senate seat will stay in Democratic hands" because of the GOP's struggles to hold its coalition together (that's no sure thing).

And he said he'll make his decision sometime in 2023.

In other 2024 news…

WV-SEN: Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., hasn't announced whether he's running for re-election in 2024, but Republicans are already eyeing the seat as a top pick-up opportunity, with one candidate already in and others considering a run, NBC News' Allan Smith reports.

Scott 2024 buzz: Politico reports on how South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott's colleagues are abuzz about the prospect of him running for president.

Braun bid official: Indiana GOP Sen. Mike Braun is running for governor, and GOP Rep. Jim Banks is considering running to replace him.

Peters bows out: Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters tells NBC News' Julie Tsirkin that he is not going to serve another term as chair of the DSCC.

Dem doling out advice: Brian Stryker, a pollster for Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in her successful re-election bid, writes in a New York Times op-ed about how "Michigan offers a microcosm of American politics" and how Whitmer's success proves the party can reject "false choices" like choosing between progressive/moderate or economy/abortion.

Candidate recruitment: With Republicans sporting a narrow House majority, Politico writes about how the party is working to avoid a shaky round of recruitment that could jeopardize its grip on the House.

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ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world?

The Biden administration is working on ways to better track weapons it sends to Ukraine, and may send an additional number of troops to the country, NBC News' Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee report.

President Joe Biden put together an interagency group to fight anti-semitism, the White House announced Monday.

Viktor Bout, the convicted arms dealer whom the U.S. traded with Russia for Brittney Griner, is being welcomed back with open arms in Russia.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin set a special election for Feb. 21, 2023 to fill Rep. A. Donald McEachin's 4th District seat, which was left vacant after he died last month.