If it's THURSDAY… President Biden delivers speech in Philadelphia at 8:00 pm ET on the "continued battle for the soul of the nation"… Donald Trump's lawyers respond to Justice Dept. filing, arguing a special master is necessary to review seized documents… Democrat Mary Peltola defeats Republican Sarah Palin in AK-AL special congressional election… GOP Sen. Rick Scott takes a dig at Mitch McConnell… Abortion ballot initiative stalls in Michigan … And Serena Williams shines at US Open.
But FIRST… Alaska's election reforms – a Top 4 primary system, ranked-choice voting in the general – were designed to penalize far-right/far-left candidates and reward those with crossover appeal.
That's exactly what played out in the state's special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, when Democrat Mary Peltola beat Republican Sarah Palin, 51.5% to 48.5%, after third-place finisher Nick Begich's voters were reallocated under ranked choice.
Per the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman, Begich voters' second choice broke down this way:
- 50% for Palin
- 29% for Peltola
- 21% who didn't make a second choice
(As Wasserman points out, that half of Republican Begich's voters went for Peltola or none of the above shows how flawed Palin's candidacy was under Alaska's new system.)
And after Peltola got 40% in the initial round to voting (to Palin's 31% and Begich's 28%), that wasn't enough for Palin.
Palin's loss – in a state Trump won by 10 points in 2020 – has produced backlash from Republicans.
"Ranked-choice voting is a scam to rig elections," said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., per NBC's Frank Thorp. "60% of Alaska voters voted for a Republican, but thanks to a convoluted process and ballot exhaustion—which disenfranchises voters—a Democrat 'won.'"
(While that kind of GOP criticism will be a challenge for other states considering Top 2/Top 4/ranked-choice reforms, Democrats will gladly point out that other "convoluted" processes like the Electoral College currently benefit Republicans. Also, Peltola did get the most votes before ranked choice was used.)
At the end of the day, was it the system that hurt Republicans? Or was it Palin and her lack of crossover appeal – in a state with its own kind of independent streak?
With these same candidates competing again in November (this time to fill the seat for the next Congress), Begich is arguing that Palin is too flawed to win under Alaska's new election system.
"The biggest lesson as we move into the 2022 general election, is that ranked-choice voting showed that a vote for Sarah Palin is in reality a vote for Mary Peltola. Palin simply doesn't have enough support from Alaskans to win an election," Begich said, according to NBC's Ali Vitali and Haley Talbot.
One other important reminder after last night: EVERY House race, including this one in November, could matter for control of Congress as the overall political environment improves for Democrats.
And don't lose sight that Democrats have now won the last two competitive House special elections.
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