From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman FIRST READ: Biden approval number tops two things to know for the 2022 midterms If it's Monday… We are now 309 days out from the 2022 midterms… U.S. Covid cases continue to skyrocket… President Biden talks at 1:30 pm ET about ways to lower meat prices… Trump endorses more GOP candidates… And Pelosi and Schumer have announced that the late Harry Reid will lie in state at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 12.
But FIRST… Here are two of the most important things you need to know about the upcoming midterm elections: One, the sitting president's party almost always loses House seats in these elections.
And two, the midterms are almost always a referendum on the president.
On average, since the Truman Era, a president's party loses more than 29 House seats in his first midterm election. (This year, Republicans need to pick up just 5 seats to win back the House.)
A President's First Midterm since WWII (in House seats gained/lost) 1946 Truman: -55 1954 Eisenhower: -18 1962 Kennedy: -4 1966 LBJ: -48 1970 Nixon: -12 1974 Ford: -48 1978 Carter: -15 1982 Reagan: -26 1990 Bush: -8 1994 Clinton: -54 2002 Bush: +8 2010 Obama: -63 2018: Trump: -40 Average: -29.4
But in the seven times when that president's job-approval rating was below 50 percent, his party lost an average of 43 House seats
That President's Approval Rating in September of that Election Year, per Gallup 1946 Truman: 33 percent 1954 Eisenhower: 66 percent 1962 Kennedy: 63 percent 1966 LBJ: 46 percent 1970 Nixon: 57 percent 1974 Ford: 50 percent 1978 Carter: 42 percent 1982 Reagan: 42 percent 1990 Bush 76 percent 1994 Clinton: 39 percent 2002 Bush: 66 percent 2010 Obama: 46 percent 2018 Trump: 42 percent SOURCE: Gallup Samuel Corum/Getty The one time when a president GAINED seats during his first midterm: Bush 43 – when his job rating was in the 60s after 9/11.
So between now and November, be sure to watch President Biden's job rating, which is currently in the low 40s. It will tell us almost everything we need to know about the political environment this midterm season.
The '22 wild cards Of course, there are also two pretty big wild cards to watch beyond Biden's job rating.
Wild Card No. 1 is Donald Trump and how his endorsed candidates fare in the midterms.
Wild Card No. 2 is a big event BEYOND what's already baked into the current political environment – something like Russia invading Ukraine.
Tweet of the Day: The anatomy of Trump's big lie
Data Download: The number of the day is … 52 percent That's the share of Republican respondents in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll who say those involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol were mostly protecting democracy, versus 45 percent who characterized it as a threat to democracy.
By contrast, 96 percent of Democrats called the attack "mostly threatening democracy." That's the dominant public view too, one shared by 72 percent of American adults.
Other numbers you need to know today 22,737: The number of deaths in the United States from Covid, per the most recent data from NBC News, since our last newsletter on Dec. 17.
829,217: The total number of Covid deaths in the U.S. since the beginning of the pandemic.
4,716,452: The number of confirmed cases of Covid in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials, since our last newsletter.
55,264,743: The number of total Covid cases in the U.S. since the beginning of the pandemic.
Midterm roundup Former President Trump has continued to take sides in GOP primaries. On Saturday, he backed GOP Rep. Mary Miller, a Freedom Caucus member running against fellow GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in the newly drawn 15th District.
Trump also endorsed Alaska GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy – but on the condition that Dunleavy would not support GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who voted to convict Trump in his impeachment trial a year ago. Trump released a follow-up statement that included a "note" from Dunleavy that said, "Please tell the President thank you for the endorsement. With regard to the other issue, please tell the President he has nothing to worry about."
And this morning, Trump endorsed Kansas AG Derek Schmidt, who is running for governor.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world Catch up on the 10 Senate races that could determine which party controls the chamber, and 10 governor's races to watch, per NBC's Henry J. Gomez and Sahil Kapur.
Two House freshmen, one Republican and one Democrat, spoke with NBC about the Jan. 6 attack and how they've processed it since.
The Omicron wave is adding yet another complication for businesses, travel and school reopenings.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has tested positive for Covid.
Two people are missing after last week's fires in the Boulder, Colo. area.
House Democrats continue to consider a life after Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
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Monday, January 3, 2022
Two things for ’22 … and the anatomy of Trump’s big lie
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