Wednesday, December 15, 2021

No, this isn't a piece of modern art.

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Senior Analyst

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Marketing Brew

I'll keep today's brew short, as I know you've probably got a lot on your plate with the holidays just around the corner.

If you're anything like me, you've probably had the thought, "If the stock market has a strong year this year, that it increases the odds of a weak year the next, and vice versa."

A chart recently came across my desk that does a great job at showing how those thoughts about future market performance aren't accurate.

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No, this isn't a piece of modern art. This chart shows the relationship of returns based on a two-year time span.

If our original fear of solid performance this year means weak performance next year, we would see a string of dots that slopes down and to the right.

Instead, we see dots all over the chart. Historically, there's no discernible relationship between one year's performance and the following year's returns. So what's the takeaway?

Don't let December's market performance influence your perception of what 2022 has in store. All signs point to next year keeping the bear markets in hibernation.

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