The following GAIN reports were released on November 5, 2021.
For MY 2021/22, Post forecast fresh deciduous fruit production is estimated to remain relatively stable at 570,000 MT for fresh apples and 590,000 MT for fresh pears, compared to MY 2020/21. Apple exports are expected to increase to 100,000 MT and pear exports are projected to decrease to 310,000 MT. Exporters continue to be negatively affected by lack of competitiveness in international markets to relative to southern hemisphere competitors, due to domestic economic and financial conditions. The COVID-19 pandemic has had no major impact on the apple and pear industries due to public-private coordination on stringent health protocols.
FAS/Ottawa forecasts an eight percent decline in Canadian apple production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22, as adverse weather events affected many growing regions in Canada. Pear and table grape production in Ontario were less impacted by weather compared to British Columbia, with overall Canadian production forecast to grow for both commodities driven by better growing conditions in Ontario. Canadian imports of fresh apples and pears are forecast to decline on lower production in source countries, while imports of table grapes are forecast to grow for MY 2021/22. The United States will remain the main supplier of apples, pears, and table grapes to Canada.
India's marketing year (MY) 2022 (January-December) fluid milk production is forecast higher at 203.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on a relatively normal June-September monsoon season. Anticipating strong prices and modest export demand, butter exports will rise to 15,000 metric tons (MT), 36 percent higher than the revised estimated export figure of 11,000 metric tons (MT) for MY 2021. With the same assumptions, skimmed milk powder (SMP) exports are forecast to increase to 20,000 MT, 11 percent higher than the revised estimated figure for MY 2021. Butter and SMP estimated export figures have been revised to match with trade data. Since milk production is growing in tandem with domestic consumption, any uptick in future demand for milk-based products may lead to a general expansion in dairy imports.
Rice export prices of all grades of rice decreased 2 percent.
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