Saturday, July 11, 2026

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The most profitable tollbooth in America

Editor's note: CNBC nicknamed him "The Prophet." He called Netflix at 78 cents, Apple at 38 cents, and Amazon at $2.80 – long before anyone knew their names. He's appeared on 60 Minutes twice. Now former hedge-fund manager Whitney Tilson is naming what he calls "America's Greatest Retirement Stock" right now – one company at the center of the AI and energy boom. He's giving away the name and ticker, free. See below...


A better retirement stock than Berkshire?

For years, I've called Berkshire Hathaway my No. 1 retirement stock in America.

I've attended 27 of Buffett's last 28 annual shareholder meetings in Omaha.

I've urged my readers to put a significant chunk of their retirement savings into Berkshire.

And it's worked out extraordinarily well.

But today I want to tell you about a company I believe might be even MORE powerful.

It doesn't manufacture a single chip, write a single line of code, or produce a single drop of energy or gas.

Instead, it controls assets so rare and irreplaceable that the entire AI boom grinds to a halt without them.

>>> See what it controls <<<

Every AI giant. Every energy company. Every pipeline operator that needs access... has to pay.

I call it the world's most profitable tollbooth – one that collects on the largest flood of spending in American history, whether markets rise or fall.

And unlike Berkshire – which hasn't paid a dividend since 1967 – this company sends enormous piles of cash directly to shareholders.

Not one check... But TWO.

Including a special payout that can run 5 to 10 TIMES bigger than the regular quarterly dividend.

>>> Learn how to collect both checks <<<

Over the past decade, it's outperformed Apple, Amazon, AND the S&P 500 – combined.

Right now, it's trading at a rare discount. Past windows like this one have turned a $10,000 stake into $55,000 – in just over 12 months.

The next dividend hits in weeks.

I'm giving away the name, ticker, and full story – completely free.

>>> Watch: Why This "Tollbooth" Stock May Be America's New Greatest Retirement Stock <<<

I flew to West Texas to see what this tollbooth actually controls...

Sitting above it in a helicopter, looking down at 9,000 construction workers crawling across a single stretch of desert...

I understood immediately why the smartest money in the world is rushing in.

Regards,

Whitney Tilson
Senior Analyst, Stansberry Research

P.S. The discount window is already narrow.

But here's what makes July 13th the real deadline...

On February 2nd, Trump signed "Project Vault" — a plan to set hard price floors on the exact critical assets this tollbooth controls.

July 13th is when Washington makes that call.

If those price floors get the greenlight, every fund and every trading desk rushes in at once.

The tollbooth gets even more valuable overnight.

And this discount disappears with them.

Remember — the next dividend hits in weeks too.

The window to get in before both of those events is closing fast.

>>> Watch the free presentation before July 13th. <<<


 
 
 
 
 
 

Saturday's Bonus Content

Constellation Brands: Beer Growth and Buybacks Mask Stock's Slump

Authored by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 7/9/2026.

Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, and Pacifico beer bottles on a table beside a Constellation Brands logo sign.

Key Points

  • Constellation Brands topped revenue expectations but missed on adjusted EPS in its fiscal 2027 first-quarter report, even as the stock trades near multi-year lows.
  • The beer segment, led by Modelo Especial and Corona Extra, kept growing while Wine and Spirits posted strong organic sales gains despite a large reported decline tied to a divestiture.
  • New CEO Nicholas Fink outlined an occasion-based growth strategy as the company continued returning cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends amid raised full-year guidance.
  • Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) delivered its fiscal year 2027 Q1 report on June 30 with mixed results. Revenue of $2.43 billion beat expectations of $2.39 billion. However, Constellation missed the bottom line, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.43, below expectations of $3.70.

Even so, earnings were higher year over year (YOY). Management also raised its full-year reported EPS outlook to $11.50 to $12.20 and reaffirmed comparable guidance of $11.20 to $11.90. At the midpoint, reported EPS would be 23% higher YOY.

Google signed. Gates wrote a 100 million dollar check. Here's why. (Ad)

A drilling crew in rural Utah was handed a 64-day timeline to bore through nearly three miles of solid granite. They finished in 16 days - twelve years ahead of the DOE's own performance projections.

Drilling costs were cut in half in 18 months. Google signed a 15-year contract. Bill Gates reversed his position and committed $100 million. When Congress rewrote energy tax credits, this was the one source that kept them through 2033. The company behind it has been operating for sixty years.

See the company that just rewrote the DOE's timelinetc pixel

That hasn’t done much to satisfy investors. As of the market close on July 8, STZ continues to trade near multi-year lows around $130, keeping shares below their 200-day moving average of roughly $146. The stock's MACD also remains in negative territory.

Chart of Constellation Brands (STZ) stock price with SMA and MACD indicators showing shares near their 52-week low.

When it comes to earnings reports, investors often pay too much attention to what a company did and not enough to what it expects next. In the case of Constellation Brands, that disconnect is worth examining, particularly since STZ is trading approximately 29% below the analysts’ consensus price target of $167.89.

Constellation's Beer Business Continues to Drive Growth

Constellation's beer segment, anchored by Modelo Especial and Corona Extra, grew net sales 2% on a 1.8% increase in shipment volumes. Operating margin held roughly flat at 39%. Depletions, a measure of what's actually moving off store shelves, dipped by a modest 0.3%. The company remained the top dollar-share gainer in the U.S. beer category during the quarter, with five of the 15 top share-gaining brands nationally.

Wine and Spirits told a more complicated story. Reported net sales fell 47%, but that decline was almost entirely due to last year's divestiture of a large portion of the mainstream wine portfolio. Strip that out, and organic net sales actually grew 8%, with depletions up 6.6%. The Kim Crawford brand’s depletions grew by roughly 4%, while Mi CAMPO Tequila surged 62%. The segment's operating loss narrowed sharply, improving 140 basis points to a margin of negative 0.7%.

Constellation Challenges the GLP-1 Bear Case

A popular bear thesis for beer and wine stocks holds that GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are suppressing overall drinking. Constellation's numbers argue against that story, at least for now. If GLP-1 adoption were driving a broad pullback in alcohol consumption, beer volumes should be falling alongside wine and spirits. Instead, beer shipments grew, and organic sales and depletions for wine and spirits both increased.

This suggests that Constellation Brands is adapting to changing consumer tastes. That's different from a company stuck in a doom loop of declining demand.

What stands out in the numbers is pressure lower on the income ladder. Management described a "discerning and value-conscious consumer mindset," particularly among lower-income households, as gas prices rose more than 50% nationally during the quarter.

That's the K-shaped economy playing out in real time: a bifurcated consumer base, with higher-end brands that have strong equity, like Modelo and Kim Crawford, continuing to find buyers even as lower-income households pull back elsewhere.

Constellation Rewards Shareholders With Buybacks and Dividends

Constellation returned over $400 million to shareholders during the quarter. That total was split between $324 million in year-to-date share repurchases and a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share. Management is targeting a comparable net leverage ratio of approximately 3x while continuing to fund the construction of a third brewery in Veracruz, Mexico. Operating cash flow rose 4% to $662 million, and free cash flow increased 9% to $485 million.

New CEO Nicholas Fink Outlines Constellation's Growth Strategy

This was the first earnings report with Nicholas Fink as President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO). Fink used the earnings commentary to lay out an occasion-based growth strategy. The plan centers on understanding when, where, and why consumers choose specific brands, rather than treating growth purely as a distribution or pricing exercise.

Fink singled out Modelo Especial's continued distribution runway and relatively low brand awareness as a specific opportunity, alongside continued investment in fast-growing Pacifico and Mi CAMPO.

Constellation Stock Offers Value for Patient Investors

At roughly 11x earnings, Constellation trades at a discount that looks reasonable for a defensive consumer name with a dominant beer franchise and an improving wine-and-spirits business. The stock's continued technical weakness suggests the market hasn't fully priced in the operating improvement yet.

To be fair, risks remain. Wine and Spirits still operates near breakeven, tariff exposure on agricultural inputs is an ongoing concern the company flags directly in its filings, and the broader beverage alcohol category faces real questions about long-term consumption trends.

But this quarter's results suggest the pressure so far is more about consumer selectivity than a structural retreat from alcohol altogether. For patient investors, Constellation's combination of earnings growth, aggressive capital returns, and a still-skeptical stock chart is worth watching closely.


Saturday's Bonus Content

5 Dividend Kings to Buy in July with Irresistible Value and Yield

Authored by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 7/8/2026.

An upward arrow between two stacked coin piles on a desk, with a rising stock price chart on a laptop screen behind.

Key Points

  • Several Dividend Kings, including Procter & Gamble, Hormel, Stanley Black & Decker, Genuine Parts, and Lowe's, are trading at discounted valuations despite decades of consecutive dividend increases.
  • Each company faces distinct headwinds, such as sluggish demand, rising costs, a CEO transition, a proposed corporate split, or a weak housing market, yet maintains sustainable dividend payouts.
  • Institutional investors have been accumulating shares across these companies, and analysts note improving fundamentals that could support future price appreciation and continued capital returns.
  • Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.

Dividend Kings are attractive investments because their 50-year streak of consecutive dividend payments reflects business stability through different economic cycles, flexibility to adapt over time, durable cash flows, and a commitment to capital returns that can help reduce portfolio volatility and compound wealth.

The best time to buy these stocks is when they are unloved and their prices are low. These companies have already proven their resilience and their ability to create value over time, and buying them at lower prices offers more attractive value-to-yield ratios.

Procter & Gamble Offers Rare Discount on Premium Brand

Google signed. Gates wrote a 100 million dollar check. Here's why. (Ad)

A drilling crew in rural Utah was handed a 64-day timeline to bore through nearly three miles of solid granite. They finished in 16 days - twelve years ahead of the DOE's own performance projections.

Drilling costs were cut in half in 18 months. Google signed a 15-year contract. Bill Gates reversed his position and committed $100 million. When Congress rewrote energy tax credits, this was the one source that kept them through 2033. The company behind it has been operating for sixty years.

See the company that just rewrote the DOE's timelinetc pixel

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) shares are down from their post-COVID highs amid macroeconomic headwinds, sluggish demand, and shifting consumer habits, but the company is far from out of the fight. As the leading global manufacturer of home health and hygiene products, it is well-positioned for success. Its 70-year streak of dividend increases attests to that.

The key detail investors should focus on is valuation. At first glance, it still looks rich relative to peers, but it has fallen significantly from historical norms.

Procter & Gamble stock tends to trade at a premium valuation because of its strong dividend payout, which amounts to about 60% of the company’s earnings and yields nearly 3%. The company’s cash flow also supports share buybacks. Q1 activity contributed to a 1.35% trailing 12-month (TTM) reduction, a pace that is likely to continue.

Analysts' trends reflect a cautious tone but do not raise any red flags. MarketBeat tracks 22 analysts rating the stock as a Moderate Buy, with a 55% Buy-side bias and modest upside at the midpoint target. Institutions, which collectively own 65% of the stock, limit downside as they have been accumulating shares at a pace greater than $2 to $1.

PG chart displaying a bottom at a support target around $140.

Hormel’s 50% Discount Is a High-Yield Opportunity

Hormel (NYSE: HRL) faces headwinds like any consumer staple, with rising costs and shifting consumer preferences affecting both the top and bottom lines. However, the resilient food processor has a 60-year streak of dividend increases, suggesting it can weather this storm as well.

Among its efforts is the divestiture of underperforming businesses in favor of higher-margin, value-added foods. The massive 50% stock price discount offered in 2026 comes with a dividend yield approaching 5%.

Reasons to buy HRL in 2026 include its fiscal Q2 results, which showed that its strategy is working. Prepared foods helped sustain modest growth, outperformance, and margin improvement, leading to a bottoming in analyst sentiment. Meanwhile, institutions have been aggressively accumulating, setting the stage for a market reversal when a catalyst emerges. That could come as soon as year-end, assuming further progress on the repositioning.

HRL chart showing the stock down in 2026, with support from institutional buying.

Stanley Black & Decker Is Reverting to Sustainable Growth

Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK) faces the same headwinds as other consumer-facing Dividend Kings, compounded by a CEO transition.

Effective in late 2025, the leadership change brings a renewed focus on margins, profitability, and the quality of capital returns. CEO Christopher Nelson is taking a margin-first, revenue-second approach, which has resulted in sluggish top-line performance offset by improving profitability.

The takeaway is that SWK’s dividend, which yields approximately 3.6% as of early July, is safer than ever. Looking ahead, quarterly results are forecast to remain mixed this year, with tepid top-line growth offset by margin improvement, before shifting to top- and bottom-line growth the following year. Institutions, which own approximately 87% of the stock, show a high degree of confidence in the outlook, having aggressively accumulated over the TTM period.

SWK chart displaying a recovery underway.

Genuine Parts Company: A King by Any Other Name Will Pay as Sweetly

Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC) stock is down due to a combination of factors, including concerns about the proposed split. Expected to be completed in early 2027, Genuine Parts Company will split into two pure plays, one focused on the consumer market and one on the industrial market.

The core consumer brand is NAPA, comparable to capital-return machines such as AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) and O’Reilly (NASDAQ: ORLY), and both new companies are expected to return capital. While technically the 70-year streak of increases will end, dropping GPC from the Dividend King ranks, the new companies can be lumped in with names like AbbVie (NASDAQ: ABBV), which retains King-like status despite its split from Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT).

Investors who buy in this summer get a yield above 3% and an outlook for not only sustained returns, but also price-multiple expansion. Trading at approximately 16x its current-year earnings forecast, Genuine Parts Company presents a discount relative to AutoZone’s 19.5x and a deep value relative to O’Reilly, which trades above 25x. The industrial-focused company is expected to see a more robust expansion, as its peers trade in the 30x range.

GPC chart displaying the stock as well-supported in 2026.

Lowe’s Positions to Sustain Growth Ahead—Waiting for Housing Recovery

Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) is down due to sluggish growth, persistent weakness in the housing market, and consumers shying away from discretionary projects.

The offset is that Lowe’s business is supported by baseline demand underpinned by housing supply-and-demand imbalances that sustain homebuilding, remodeling, and upkeep activity, even if at subdued levels.

The takeaway is that Lowe’s cash flow, though diminished relative to more robust periods, is sufficient to sustain capital returns while the company invests in the future. Lowe’s future includes an intensified focus on pro markets. Pro markets provide a dual revenue stream and customers who purchase more frequently, in larger volumes, and across categories.

Lowe’s is the lowest-yielding name on this list, paying just over 2.2% in annualized yield as of early July, but it is also the safest. The payout ratio is in the 40% range, allowing for a more robust pace of annual increases.

Lowe's chart showing the stock trading at a discount in 2026.

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From Our Partners: A tiny supplier at the center of Elon's AI infrastructure 

A drilling crew just broke a record nobody expected

Dear Friend,

A drilling crew in Beaver County, Utah punched through 15,765 feet of solid granite.

Nearly three miles straight down.

The Department of Energy said it should take 64 days.

They did it in 16.

They hit the DOE’s 2035 performance targets twelve years early. Costs were cut in half in 18 months.

24 days later, the President signed a law that killed tax credits for solar and wind, but preserved full credits for this energy source through 2033.

The Energy Secretary who championed it? He invented the technology behind the shale revolution.

One company has been building this for sixty years. The smart money is already in. The August 18th catalyst is just weeks away.

See the company at the center of Project FORGE >>

“The Buck Stops Here,”
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Behind the Markets


 
 
 
 
 
 

This Week's Exclusive News

3 Big Banks Plan Double Digit Dividend Increases After Passing Fed Stress Test

Author: Leo Miller. Published: 7/1/2026.

Goldman Sachs lobby featuring the company logo on a stone wall above a reception desk.

Key Points

  • Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all passed the Fed's 2026 stress tests and plan meaningful dividend increases as a result.
  • Goldman intends to raise its dividend from $4.50 to $5 per share, Wells Fargo plans an 11% increase, and Citigroup a 12% increase.
  • Analysts see the most upside in Wells Fargo, with a consensus price target near $98 implying gains of more than 15% from current levels.
  • Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.

Not long ago, the Federal Reserve completed its stress tests on the country’s largest banks, and many firms announced large dividend increases afterward. The Fed’s stress tests gauge how well these large financial institutions can weather a recession. They were introduced in response to the Great Financial Crisis, which showed that bank failures could have systemic negative effects on the broader economy.

The Fed’s 2026 stress tests analyzed the impact that a severe hypothetical recession would have on 32 banks. All 32 passed, indicating that their assets would be sufficient to cover loan losses in a severe downturn. On that basis, several banks moved ahead with dividend increases, since they had extra capital to distribute to shareholders.

Google signed. Gates wrote a 100 million dollar check. Here's why. (Ad)

A drilling crew in rural Utah was handed a 64-day timeline to bore through nearly three miles of solid granite. They finished in 16 days - twelve years ahead of the DOE's own performance projections.

Drilling costs were cut in half in 18 months. Google signed a 15-year contract. Bill Gates reversed his position and committed $100 million. When Congress rewrote energy tax credits, this was the one source that kept them through 2033. The company behind it has been operating for sixty years.

See the company that just rewrote the DOE's timelinetc pixel

The common equity tier 1 capital ratio (CET1) is the key metric tested. The ratio must stay above a minimum requirement of 4.5% to pass. In doing so, the bank shows it has the capital needed to absorb substantial loan losses.

After passing the tests, these three banking giants plan to add juice to their dividends.

Goldman Plans to Continue Strong Dividend Growth

First up is The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS). During the forecast period, Goldman’s CET1 ratio started at 14.3% and fell as low as 11.4%, easily clearing the 4.5% threshold.

In response, the company said it “intends” to increase its common dividend from $4.50 to $5 per share. It uses the word “intends” because the increase is not official until approved at the Board of Directors’ next meeting, but with the stress test results already in hand, that approval is largely a formality. Since the dividend is not yet official, the record and payment dates are still unknown.

Currently, Goldman’s yield sits near 1.8%. After the planned increase, the stock’s indicated yield would rise to around 2%. Excluding this planned increase, Goldman has grown its dividend by a very strong 22.87% annually over the past five years.

Overall, Goldman has demonstrated its ability to hold up during a recession while also offering investors a solid and rapidly growing dividend.

Wells Fargo Plans Over 10% Dividend Increase Upon Passing Fed’s Test

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) also demonstrated its ability to withstand a severe economic downturn during the Fed’s stress tests. During the test, the firm’s CET1 ratio started at 10.6% and dropped to 9.2%, remaining well above the required hurdle.

Similar to Goldman, Wells Fargo announced that it “expects” to increase its dividend. During Q3 2026, the company plans to boost its dividend from 45 cents to 50 cents per share, or an 11% increase.

Currently, Wells Fargo’s indicated yield is approximately 2.15%. After the expected increase, that figure would move up significantly to just below 2.4%.

Excluding this planned increase, its five-year annualized dividend growth rate is 6.86%. That is somewhat underwhelming, given the firm's significant 2020 dividend cut to 10 cents. Since then, however, its dividend has increased dramatically.

According to the Fed’s testing, Wells Fargo is in a solid position to weather the worst of a recession. Meanwhile, the company offers a meaningful dividend yield, along with recovering dividend growth.

Citigroup Plans Sizeable Dividend Increase, Yield to Approach 2%

Last up is Citigroup (NYSE: C). The company began the stress test period with a CET1 ratio of 13.2%. During the test, its ratio fell to 10.3%, solidly surpassing the 4.5% minimum. Now, Citigroup plans to increase its dividend by 12% from 60 cents per share to 67 cents per share.

Currently, the firm has an annualized dividend of $2.40, equating to a yield of just under 1.7%. The company’s planned dividend increase would bring the figure to just under 1.9%.

Notably, Citi has grown its dividend at a very slow rate in recent years. The company’s five-year dividend growth rate is only 2.61%, excluding this planned increase. This follows an over four-year period from 2019 to 2023 when Citi did not increase its dividend at all. However, Citi has been turning around its business, with the firm posting record revenues across all five of its main divisions in 2025.

This has allowed the company to resume dividend increases more recently.

Citi’s strong performance during the Fed's stress test demonstrates its financial resilience and gives it the ability to continue returning significant capital.

Analysts Forecast Gains in Wells Fargo After Meager Performance

Overall, Goldman, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all easily passed the Fed’s stress test, staying well above the minimum requirement. Beyond capital returns, Wall Street analysts are forecasting the most upside in Wells Fargo among this group. The MarketBeat consensus price target on Wells Fargo sits near $98, implying gains of more than 15%.

This is partly because Wells Fargo has underperformed, while Goldman and Citigroup have already gone on strong runs. Since the beginning of 2025, Citigroup is up more than 100%, Goldman is up more than 75%, and Wells Fargo’s return is less than 30%.


This Week's Exclusive News

Southwest MAX Incident Revives Headline Risk for Boeing and Airline Stocks

Author: Chris Markoch. Published: 7/9/2026.

Boeing logo displayed on a wall inside a hangar with aircraft visible on both sides.

Key Points

  • Two Southwest Airlines 737 MAX 8 flights diverted due to mechanical issues in early July 2026, though both landed safely without injuries.
  • Boeing continues a credible production ramp toward 52 monthly 737 deliveries, but wiring rework, 787 delays, and Spirit AeroSystems integration costs still pose execution risks.
  • Rising jet fuel prices, tied partly to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, add pressure to airline stocks even as analysts raise price targets for Southwest.
  • Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.

Two recent incidents involving a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft have put Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) stock back in the spotlight, and not in a good way. Both incidents occurred on Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) jets. The timing is notable, landing just as Boeing works to reassure investors that its production and quality-control issues are behind it.

The first incident occurred on Southwest Flight WN139, which made an emergency return to Maui. The Boeing 737 MAX 8 was en route from Kahului to Las Vegas on July 5, 2026, when the crew reported a mechanical issue. Rather than continuing toward the mainland, the flight diverted to Honolulu.

Google signed. Gates wrote a 100 million dollar check. Here's why. (Ad)

A drilling crew in rural Utah was handed a 64-day timeline to bore through nearly three miles of solid granite. They finished in 16 days - twelve years ahead of the DOE's own performance projections.

Drilling costs were cut in half in 18 months. Google signed a 15-year contract. Bill Gates reversed his position and committed $100 million. When Congress rewrote energy tax credits, this was the one source that kept them through 2033. The company behind it has been operating for sixty years.

See the company that just rewrote the DOE's timelinetc pixel

Passengers described a tense but orderly return, and the aircraft landed safely with no reported injuries. Southwest confirmed the diversion as a precaution, and the plane was inspected before returning to service.

A second, less-reported incident also involved a Southwest MAX 8. That flight, traveling between Denver and Dallas, diverted after the crew flagged a technical issue mid-flight. Details remain limited, with little official confirmation so far. Together, the two incidents highlight how quickly minor mechanical alerts can draw scrutiny, especially with a model still shadowed by its troubled history.

737 MAX Incidents Put Boeing Stock Back Under the Microscope

The company faced intense scrutiny after two fatal crashes involving the 737 MAX in 2018 and 2019, which led to a worldwide grounding of the aircraft. There's no indication that either recent event involved MCAS, the flight-control system tied to that earlier crisis.

This hasn’t turned into a sell-the-news event. BA is down only about 0.67% over the five days ending July 8. LUV is down about 3.01% over the same period. These new incidents, however, remind investors of the inherent risk in this sector.

One of those risks is the price of jet fuel, which is moving higher as U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over. For investors tracking BA and LUV, these incidents add a fresh variable to an already complex earnings picture heading into the back half of 2026.

Boeing's Production Recovery Still Faces Execution Risks

Boeing's latest earnings paint a picture of a company gaining operational footing while still carrying real risk. Production discipline is the headline: 737 output has stabilized at 42 jets monthly, with plans to reach 47 this summer and eventually 52 once the new Everett North Line comes online.

Certification progress reinforces that momentum, with the 737-7/737-10 nearing final approval, the 777-9 advancing through FAA testing, and a supplier engine issue reportedly identified and being resolved. Higher MTOW approval on the 787-9/787-10 adds further flexibility.

Still, execution risk hasn't disappeared. A wiring nonconformance forced rework on 25 737s, pushing some deliveries into Q2. The 787 program faces its own delays, tied to seat certification and engine timing. Meanwhile, the Spirit AeroSystems integration remains a financial drag, expected to cost roughly $1 billion in cash this year.

Taken together, the stakes center on execution consistency. Boeing has a credible production ramp and certification runway ahead. That’s why the company can ill afford recurring quality lapses, particularly while integration costs threaten to undercut that progress. Investors will be watching whether operational discipline can outpace recurring one-off setbacks that still weigh on delivery timelines and cash flow.

Higher Fuel Prices Add Pressure to Airline Stocks

The risk to Southwest and other airlines is not direct, but it is nonetheless real.

Buyer behavior matters. Anecdotal evidence showed consumers actively sought out airlines and flights that didn’t use the 737 MAX after the 2018-2019 crashes. Southwest uses the 737 MAX extensively in its fleet, so the operational risk is real, albeit hard to quantify.

That risk comes at a time when energy prices are on the rise, which means higher jet fuel prices at a time when the consumer is weak. Overall travel demand, including airline demand, has remained solid so far, despite sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates that affect consumers at multiple levels.

Airlines such as Delta (NYSE: DAL), which cater to a premium consumer, may not feel the impact as much as Southwest, which relies on a more budget-conscious customer base. That said, while consumers have options, Southwest has significant equity built with its customer base.

Energy prices will be the bigger short-term story for all airline stocks, including Southwest. And due to the FIFA World Cup, Southwest and other airlines are likely to post good numbers this earnings season. Adding to the bull case, analysts have been raising their price targets for LUV despite the incidents.

If the investigation doesn’t reveal a systemic issue with the 737 Max, investors can remove that risk from their assessments of Southwest and Boeing. But in two sectors where the margin of error is slim, investors may want to exercise caution in the short term.

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From Our Partners: A tiny supplier at the center of Elon's AI infrastructure 

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