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Additional Reading from MarketBeat
Comparing 3 Cruise Stocks: Which Has the Most Upside in 2026?Written by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Published: 4/21/2026. 
Key Points
- Analysts see meaningful upside across Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian, but the stocks have not moved in sync as company-specific factors drive performance.
- Royal Caribbean and Carnival have benefited from stronger execution and profitability, while Norwegian has lagged due to weaker margins and execution challenges.
- Future performance will be impacted by execution, fuel exposure, and fundamentals, with Norwegian’s turnaround progress a key factor for its upside.
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The cruise sector has been on a roll, and Wall Street thinks it has more room to run. However, the rising tide hasn't lifted all stocks equally: differences in fundamentals, fuel hedging and valuation have produced varied performance across companies. Over the last few years the industry has benefited from a combination of strong demand, firm pricing and healthy onboard spending. Even with the recent spike in oil prices, three of the major cruise operators — Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE: NCLH) — have still posted strong stock gains over the last 12 months.
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The strength looks poised to continue. All three stocks carry Moderate Buy ratings, and Wall Street anticipates meaningful upside over the next year. Company-specific factors, however, will largely determine how each performs going forward. Carnival: Strong Performance Backed by Consistent Earnings BeatsCarnival has been a standout over the past year, with shares up more than 60%. While strong demand has helped the whole industry, Carnival's multiple consecutive quarters of earnings beats have reassured investors that the company is firing on most cylinders. Despite higher oil prices, Carnival's shares rose more than 3% over the last three months. The company delivered record results through every quarter of 2025 and into Q1 2026. On March 27, Carnival reported Q1 earnings of $0.20 per share, up from $0.13 a year earlier and $0.02 above estimates. Revenue of $6.17 billion increased more than 6% year-over-year and beat expectations by roughly $35 million. The company also raised its full-year operational outlook by about $150 million. Despite the solid quarter, high oil prices remain a concern for investors. Carnival, unlike some peers, does not hedge fuel, and the company said it expects a $0.38-per-share hit from higher oil. Shares fell about 5% following the report. Analysts had mixed reactions to the quarter, but on average still see upside for the stock. The 12-month consensus price target of roughly $34 implies about 17% upside from the current price near $28.90. From a valuation standpoint, Carnival looks relatively inexpensive, trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 13X, versus almost 18X for Royal Caribbean and about 23X for Norwegian. The leisure and recreational services industry as a whole trades at a P/E of nearly 18X. Carnival's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 1.3X is well below Royal Caribbean's P/S of more than 4X and the industry's P/S above 7X, though it is higher than Norwegian's P/S of less than 1X. Royal Caribbean: Strong Execution and Profitability Have Driven PerformanceA record number of guests in 2025 and robust onboard spending have made Royal Caribbean another big winner, with shares rising nearly 45% over the last year. The company's Q4 earnings release on Jan. 29 reinforced its operational strength. Earnings of $2.80 per share were up sharply from $1.63 the prior year and in line with expectations. Revenue of $4.26 billion rose more than 13% year-over-year, though it missed estimates by about $18 million. What really excited investors was the company's outlook: Royal Caribbean said it expects 2025's momentum to carry into next year, with double-digit revenue and adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) growth. Shares jumped roughly 18% following the release, briefly pushing the stock above $350. Although rising oil prices have recently pressured the group, Royal Caribbean's stock has held up well. Over the last three months, shares are up more than 3%. Some of the resilience reflects the company's fuel hedges — it is roughly 60% hedged for the year — and its higher profitability. Royal Caribbean's net margin is nearly 24%, compared with roughly 11% for Carnival and about 4% for Norwegian. Analysts are generally positive on the stock, expecting it to reach about $349 over the next 12 months. If that materializes, it would imply roughly 25% upside from the current price near $279. Norwegian Cruise Line: Performance Will Hinge on Turnaround ExecutionNorwegian has lagged its peers. While the industry-strength helped lift the stock up 23% over the last year, the rally has been modest relative to Carnival or Royal Caribbean. Unlike those peers, Norwegian's shares are down more than 1% over the last three months. The stock has been pressured by execution issues, which recently led to the appointment of John Chidsey as chief executive to steer a turnaround. In the company's Q4 earnings press release on March 2, Chidsey said, "My initial assessment is that our strategy is sound, but execution and cross-functional alignment have fallen short. Our priority is to act urgently to address these gaps by improving coordination, reinforcing accountability, and strengthening financial discipline across the organization." Those remarks accompanied mixed results for the quarter. Earnings of $0.28 per share were $0.02 above year-ago and $0.01 above estimates. Revenue of about $2.24 billion rose roughly 6% year-over-year but missed expectations by around $100 million. Norwegian's track record over the past two years has been uneven, with inconsistent earnings and several revenue misses. The company issued cautious guidance for 2026, saying it is "entering 2026 against a pressured backdrop as it is slightly below the optimal booking range following certain execution missteps in aligning our commercial strategy with our deployment." Shares plunged more than 20% in the five sessions after the report. While oil remains an industry-wide concern, Norwegian's roughly 51% hedge this year should help mitigate some impact. Analysts still expect meaningful upside: the average 12-month price target of $24.58 is nearly 22% above the current stock price of about $20.20. By most accounts, strong industry demand should continue to support cruise stocks overall. Execution, though, will ultimately determine winners and losers. Given their differences in hedging, profitability and valuation, the path ahead is likely to look different for each of the three companies. |
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