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On Holdings Sets Up for Marathon Rally: New Highs Are ComingBy Thomas Hughes. Published: 5/12/2026. 
Key Points
- High-quality On Holdings is setting up for a marathon run that could take its stock price up by triple digits over the long term.
- Growth and operational quality underpin the outlook, with forward estimates suggesting the price can increase by several multiples.
- Institutions are accumulating shares and limiting downside risk in Q2.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
On Holdings’ (NYSE: ONON) share price faces several headwinds, including macroeconomic pressures, a surprise CEO change, FX conversion, and slowing growth. However, those concerns appear to be priced into the stock. Even with these challenges, the company continues to perform well, sustaining a strong growth pace and widening margins in a market with plenty of share to capture. Its biggest competitor is Nike (NYSE: NKE), and Nike is still a long way from reclaiming its lost glory. The takeaway for ONON investors is that the stock trades at a significant discount to its outlook, an outlook that was strengthened by its May guidance update and suggests triple-digit upside for patient investors. ONON Stock Poised for Significant Near-Term Upside
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Between now and then, there is also a meaningful near- to mid-term opportunity. The company not only trades at a discount to its forward outlook, which already appears conservative, but also at a discount to its competitor, suggesting multiple expansion over both the near term and the long term. In addition, analysts remain committed to the name, providing a solid support base for investors looking to accumulate shares. Data tracked by MarketBeat shows 19 current ratings, a Moderate Buy consensus, and a 79% buy-side bias. The price target remains the key operational detail following the Q1 2026 earnings report, pointing to more than 70% upside from the critical support level. As it stands, the price target has remained steady on a trailing 12-month basis (TTM) and is unlikely to change materially without a shift in the outlook. The critical support level is near the April lows, just below $32, and that level is likely to be tested. 
Institutional data suggest support at the critical level is strong and that a rebound from there is likely. Institutions own only 37% of the stock, but they have been aggressively accumulating shares over the trailing 12 months. The data show buying at nearly a $2-to-$1 pace, with activity accelerating sequentially to a record high in Q1 2026. The pace remained bullish in early Q2 and likely will stay that way given the value proposition. The biggest risk on the sell side comes from insiders, but even that is not alarming. Ex-CEO Martin Hoffmann is exiting his stake as part of a prearranged plan triggered by his departure; beyond that, insiders, including the founders/co-CEOs, still hold a significant stake and are not selling. On Holdings Raises Profit Guidance After Hot QuarterOn Holdings had a solid Q1 report, with revenue growing 14.5% year over year (YOY) and 26.4% on a forex-neutral (FXN) basis, supported by strength across all channels, geographies, and product lines. DTC, the higher-margin segment, grew by 16.4% and 28.7% FXN, while Wholesale grew by 13.3% and 25.1% FXN, both underpinned by strength in Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Apparel. Regionally, APAC led with gains of 44.4% and 61.4%, followed by a 25.6% FXN increase in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and a 13.3% FXN gain in the Americas. In product categories, the core shoe segment grew by 12.2%, or 24% FXN, while Apparel grew by 57.5% FXN to 20% of the business, and Accessories grew by 86.6%. Margin news was also strong. The company posted improvements at the gross, EBITDA, and net income levels on both a GAAP and adjusted basis. GAAP and adjusted earnings increased by 82% and 76%, respectively, both ahead of consensus and reflecting the strength in Q1. The company cited operational strength and execution as drivers of margin improvement, reaffirmed its revenue forecast, and raised its full-year margin outlook. Executives expect an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 19.5% to 20% range, a full 100 basis points better than the previous guide. The revenue outlook remains likely cautious, but it still points to a year-over-year slowdown in growth followed by sequential acceleration through year-end. On Holdings: A Solid Brand With Catalysts AheadWhile the company’s headwinds are unlikely to ease, including uncertainty and tariff-related cost pressures, several catalysts could drive outperformance. These include strength in DTC, APAC, and Apparel, as well as LightSpray innovation. The technology enables rapid, waste-free, automated shoe construction, paving the way for meaningful margin improvement and operating efficiencies. It uses a robotic arm to spray a mile-long filament onto a shoe mold, which instantly hardens into a laceless upper. The strength of On Holdings' business and brand is reflected in its balance sheet. The company increased cash, working capital, current assets, and total assets while reducing total liabilities. Equity improved by 8.5% year to date and will likely continue to rise as the year progresses. |
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