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More Reading from MarketBeat.com What a Gold Miner and an Oil Trust Reveal About Today's MarketWritten by Jessica Mitacek. Published: 3/20/2026. 
Key Points - As the bull market enters its fourth year, investors are abandoning underperforming tech stocks in favor of energy and materials, which are significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500.
- A weakening U.S. dollar, aggressive tariff policies, and escalating Middle East conflicts are driving a flight to safety, fueling a massive rally in commodities like oil and gold.
- Stocks like Vista Gold and Permian Basin Royalty Trust signal that the commodity run is broad-based, supported by strong profit margins and favorable technical indicators.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
During healthy bull markets, investors routinely embrace risk-on strategies. High-flying tech stocks tend to outperform while defensive sectors and safe-haven assets are often disregarded. But in 2026 we're seeing the opposite. Now in its fourth year, the bull market has likely entered the late stages of its cycle. The Magnificent Seven continue to underperform, software stocks are suffering some of their worst losses since the last bear market, and investors are embarking on a flight to safety that has benefited cyclical and defensive investments. That has yielded outsized gains for two sectors: energy and materials. The last time either sector led the S&P 500 was in 2021, when energy topped the index in the run-up to the bear market, and in 2022, when energy led throughout the downturn. Now there's evidence those sectors may hold onto their market-leading gains this year, underscored by a gold development company and an oil and gas trust that are likely to continue mirroring the trend. Macro Factors Continue Rewarding Underappreciated Sectors Energy leads all S&P 500 sectors with a year-to-date gain of nearly 28%, followed by materials at roughly 10%. The broader market, by contrast, is down more than 3% on the year, with financials trailing with an 11% loss. That's hardly a coincidence. The U.S. Dollar Index remains down more than 8% since January 2025. The Trump administration's tariff policies have fueled the "sell America" trade, and ongoing uncertainty has prompted outflows from U.S. equities in favor of foreign markets. Additionally, consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade, the labor market has weakened, and a geopolitical landscape rife with instability has seen numerous conflicts disrupt global markets from energy to agriculture. In turn, speculative sectors are suffering while energy and materials—supported by absolute demand—continue to thrive. Two companies in those industries provide clues that the current macro environment is well positioned for more of the same. Vista Gold Suggests the Precious Metal Rally Has Legs Gold prices got a shot in the arm when the United States and Israel began coordinated military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, further propelling the precious metal's price. Even before the latest escalation, heightened market volatility, trade uncertainty, and pre-emptive military actions became hallmarks of the Trump administration, benefiting gold prices. Investors should expect more of the same going forward, as evidenced by Vista Gold (NYSEAMERICAN: VGZ), a small-cap gold miner that reported full-year and Q4 2025 results on Friday, March 13. As a development company, Vista Gold is pre-revenue, so its Q4 loss of $0.06 per share wasn't the main takeaway. More notable was that the company ended 2025 with no debt, a strong cash position, and nearly $42 million raised to advance the Mt Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory—a large, advanced-stage project "with measured and indicated gold resources totaling 9.1 million ounces," according to the company. The company expressed confidence in progress at Mt Todd. With a projected 30-year mine life, Mt Todd offers significant scale and demonstrated economic viability. A feasibility study last year reported 5.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and showed attractive economics for development at 15,000 tonnes per day (about 5.3 million tonnes per year). The stock, which has gained 172% over the past year, exemplifies how bullish sentiment toward gold is stronger in 2026 than it has been in years. Conditions are favorable for shareholders, with Vista Gold forecasting a 1.7-year after-tax internal rate of return of 44.7%. Permian Basin Royalty Trust Indicates That Energy's Run Has Just Begun The outbreak of war in Iran has roiled oil markets, with the fallout being felt from the gas pump to utility bills. That has benefited the oil majors, with ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) all recently hitting all-time highs. But lower on the energy hierarchy, companies like Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT) demonstrate that the oil and gas rally is as broad as it is nascent. Amid some speculative headlines suggesting oil could approach $200 per barrel, the key story with Permian—similar to Vista Gold—is less about past results and more about future expectations. Despite the stock climbing 106% over the past year, there is likely more in store for shareholders as its margins remain robust. According to an SEC filing last month, the trust—which holds royalty interests in oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas—reported a profit margin of more than 87% on its Texas Royalty Properties. That Feb. 17 announcement came before the Iran war began later that month, meaning PBT's net income is very likely to increase from the average price per barrel it cited in February ($56.78). Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude benchmark, is trading around $95.48 per barrel. On March 10 the stock crossed above its 200-day moving average—a bullish long-term indicator that suggests more upside ahead, supported by the global oil supply pinch. Fundamentally, Permian Basin is operating in solid financial health, ranking in TradeSmith's Green Zone for more than nine months. Taken together, Vista Gold and Permian Basin Royalty Trust illustrate how macro forces—geopolitical risk, a weaker dollar, and demand-driven commodity markets—are reinforcing leadership for materials and energy. For investors looking to diversify away from speculative growth and toward assets driven by real-world demand and geopolitical dynamics, these sectors warrant attention. | 
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