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Today's Featured Article
3 Agriculture Stocks to Buy as Food Inflation Stays Elevated in 2026Submitted by Chris Markoch. First Published: 4/20/2026. 
Key Points
- Food inflation is expected to remain above the historical average in 2026, creating tailwinds for agricultural commodity-linked stocks.
- Deere is benefiting from precision agriculture adoption and improving equipment demand at a cyclical turning point.
- Mosaic and Nutrien offer leveraged exposure to rising fertilizer prices, though input cost volatility remains a key risk.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
In theory, inflation should self-correct: when the price of goods and services gets too high, sales decline until supply and demand return to balance. In the real world, however, inflation often becomes sticky because some goods and services—like food and gasoline—are hard for consumers to avoid. To illustrate, the USDA’s Economic Research Service projects overall food prices will rise 3.6% in 2026. That’s above the 20-year historical average and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
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It would be easy to blame grocery stores, but they operate on razor-thin margins, so that argument doesn’t hold up. The problem is more structural and driven by several independent factors. For example, food prices have accelerated because of higher commodity costs. Just when those pressures seemed to be easing, the conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy prices, adding to input-cost headwinds. All of this means food prices probably aren’t coming down anytime soon. That’s a challenge for consumers, but it also creates opportunities for investors to buy agriculture stocks positioned to benefit from the disruption. Positioned at the Cycle Bottom, Primed for the TurnDeere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is an example of why investors should favor best-in-class stocks. Long before the downturn in the agriculture cycle, Deere invested in precision technology—including autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence—in anticipation of future demand. Despite the sector's headwinds, Deere is seeing benefits. Used large-tractor inventories are down more than 40% from a peak in early 2025, leaving room for new equipment. About 80% of new combine orders now include Deere’s highest-tier automation package, which suggests farmers are committed to precision agriculture. Deere is also benefiting from infrastructure demand, including data centers. That helps explain why DE stock is up more than 30% over the last 12 months and over 25% year-to-date in 2026. In the two years prior, the total return was 18%. Analysts have a consensus price target of $655.45 on DE stock, which still implies some upside as of April 14. The company also pays a dividend with a current yield of about 1.1% and an annual payout of $6.48 per share. A Deep-Value Stock at a Cyclical Inflection PointThe Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is one of the world’s leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It shouldn’t be surprising that MOS is down roughly 10% in the 30 days ending April 16; fertilizer prices may rise as critical inputs face disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Mosaic is highly sensitive to sulfur costs. Analysts estimate that every $10-per-ton increase in sulfur prices could reduce Mosaic’s quarterly EBITDA by about $10 million. That margin pressure could offset any benefit from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which implemented a dual-track pricing model that has effectively restricted phosphate exports until at least August. Analysts are neutral to bearish, with a consensus Hold rating and a $30 price target, implying roughly 20% upside. Still, MOS looks attractively valued at about 14x trailing earnings and roughly 12x forward earnings. Those multiples could compress further—or the stock could outperform—if the company delivers stronger 12-month earnings growth than the 7.8% currently forecast. The World's Largest Potash Producer, Firing on All CylindersNutrien (NYSE: NTR) is a solid momentum play. The company generated net earnings of $2.30 billion for the full year 2025, driven by higher selling prices for fertilizer, record upstream sales volumes, and stronger retail earnings. That performance helped push NTR up nearly 35% over the past 12 months and about 15% so far in 2026. The company’s scale—including potash mines in Saskatchewan, nitrogen facilities across North America, and a large direct-to-farmer retail network—positions the Canadian-based firm for further growth in 2026. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to higher natural gas prices in 2026. Natural gas is central to producing ammonia, a key input for the nitrogen fertilizers Nutrien makes. However, Nutrien is better positioned than many peers to absorb higher gas costs because of its North American production base, and it benefits on pricing when global nitrogen supplies tighten. NTR looks attractively valued at around 15x earnings. Analysts have a consensus Hold rating, but recent sentiment appears more bullish, with several analysts raising price targets in April. |
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