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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com
These are the 3 Biggest AI Winners and Losers of 2026Written by Leo Miller. Posted: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- AI is beating down software stocks, but the losses hitting one name really stick out
- Optical transceivers are having a heyday in AI data centers, and this small name is skyrocketing
- A memory chip stock that took off last year isn't slowing down in 2026
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
By 2026, the market has clearly separated the perceived AI winners from the losers. Software stocks have generally taken a heavy toll, though some face AI-driven fears more than others. Meanwhile, certain hardware names have posted huge gains even as giants like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) have cooled off. Below are the market’s biggest AI winners and losers so far in 2026, focusing on U.S. tech stocks with market capitalizations above $10 billion. Applied Optoelectronics Rides the Transceiver Wave
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Among U.S. tech stocks with market caps above $10 billion, Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ: AAOI) is 2026’s best performer. Shares have climbed more than 300% as Applied repeatedly announced that a major hyperscale customer is placing orders for its optical transceivers. Investors have rushed into optical-transceiver names more broadly. For example, larger peer Lumentum (NASDAQ: LITE) has gained more than 130% in 2026. Optical transceivers are in rising demand for data-center networking because they enable high-speed data processing. Starting 2026 with a market cap of about $2.4 billion, Applied has benefited disproportionately from that trend. With Applied’s market capitalization now approaching $12 billion and last 12 months' sales of $445 million, investors are pricing in substantial future growth. Applied grew rapidly in 2025, with revenues up 84% year over year (YOY). Analysts expect growth to accelerate, projecting sales to rise nearly 110% in 2026 and adjusted profitability for the first time since 2018. They forecast adjusted earnings per share (EPS) above $0.80, compared with a $0.26 loss per share in 2025. Software Sell-Off Hits Atlassian From Multiple AnglesAtlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM) is among the hardest-hit software stocks amid fears of AI disruption, with shares down more than 60% in 2026. Unlike many software firms, a large portion of Atlassian’s customers are software developers. AI coding tools have made development easier, which could reduce the number of developers companies need. Atlassian uses a seat-based pricing model, charging customers for each employee with access to its tools. A decline in developers would directly pressure that model. Markets may also believe customers could use AI to build applications that replicate Atlassian’s functionality more quickly than before. Because of these factors, AI-driven coding has hit Atlassian harder than many software peers. Still, Atlassian’s growth remains solid—revenues rose more than 23% YOY last quarter. The question is whether that growth can continue amid the risks. The market currently prices Atlassian as a company with little, if any, long-term free cash flow growth: its last 12 months' free cash flow declined 7% in the most recent quarter. SanDisk’s Incredible Run ContinuesAfter a staggering 559% gain in 2025, SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) has continued to rally, up more than 250% in 2026. Since its February 2025 IPO, SNDK has returned over 2,200% to investors. SanDisk’s surge is driven by strong demand for memory and storage in data centers. As a leading supplier of NAND flash memory in a concentrated industry, tight supply has pushed prices sharply higher. TrendForce projects NAND flash prices will rise roughly 70% to 75% quarter over quarter (QoQ) in Q2 2026, after estimated QoQ increases of 85% to 90% in Q1 2026. If those forecasts hold, NAND prices could rise roughly 215% to 233% over the first half of the year—helping to explain SanDisk’s dramatic gains. Analysts forecast SanDisk’s adjusted EPS could more than double to over $14 in a single quarter, compared with the company’s adjusted EPS of $6.20 last quarter. A Software Recovery Is Unlikely to Come EasilyApplied Optoelectronics, Atlassian, and SanDisk illustrate how differently the market sees AI’s impact across tech. Some analysts still expect a sizable recovery for Atlassian—many project upside of 100% or more. While a rebound is possible, the rollout of new AI tools shows no signs of slowing. That continued progress could prolong the headwinds that have disproportionately weighed on software stocks. |
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