Thursday, April 2, 2026

SPY Just Had Its Worst Quarter Since 2022. This Stock Was Up 62%.

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"I blew up two accounts before I learned to stop chasing and start reading setups like this one."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

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The S&P 500 just closed its worst quarter since 2022.

Teradyne (TER) was up 62% in that same period.

That kind of divergence does not happen by accident. It tells you something specific is working inside that company while everything around it is struggling.

I blew up two accounts before I learned to stop chasing and start reading setups like this one.

The system I built — Trend, Pattern, Squeeze — exists for exactly this situation. A stock holding its trend while the market falls apart, coiling, and then releasing. That is what TER is doing right now.

Before I get to the chart, I want to make sure you understand what Teradyne actually does.

Teradyne makes the machines that test AI chips before they ship. Every chip Nvidia designs. Every chip going into a data center. Every chip inside an AI server. Before any of it goes anywhere, it gets tested. Teradyne makes the equipment that runs those tests.

It is not the chip — it is the process that certifies the chip is ready to ship. Pick and shovel AI infrastructure.

When AI chip demand explodes, Teradyne's order book explodes with it.

Q4 2025 earnings confirmed the story. Revenue hit $1.08 billion against an estimate of $983 million. EPS came in at $1.80 against $1.38 expected. AI chip testing crossed 60% of their revenue in Q4, and management guided that number to 70% in Q1 2026. Their compute segment grew 90% in fiscal year 2025.

The stock was the second best performer in the entire S&P 500 this year. While the broad market was selling off, institutional money was piling into TER because the fundamentals kept getting better.

That is the context. Now here is what the TPS system is telling me.

ter price chart
 

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The trend is there. The EMAs are stacked on both the daily and the weekly — shorter above longer — which tells me buyers have been consistently stepping in at higher prices throughout this whole move. The 200 SMA is sitting at $180 while the stock is trading at $313.

That institutional floor hasn't been tested.

The pattern set up clean. After running to $344, TER pulled back to the lower trendline around $280. Orderly. Price coiled inside a wedge and compressed — consolidation after a trend move.

Every time I have seen this pattern work, the consolidation is what makes the next move worth trading.

Your Action Plan

The squeeze looks like it's ready to fire. The Bollinger Bands had contracted inside the Keltner Channels on the daily. Volatility was compressed.

I do not have a position. I am watching how it closes today.

If it closes strong off the lower trendline on this kind of volume, the squeeze has real direction. That is the trigger. If I get in, my stop is the 20-day EMA at $300.57. Clean close below that on volume, and I am out.

The one thing on my radar is the calendar. Earnings are on April 29. That is four weeks out.

The setup has time to work, but I will not be holding through the print with a full position. The stock moves hard on earnings in both directions.

The window is now through mid-April. That is when this trade has to prove itself. If you want to know everything I'm trading, it's inside Daily Profits Live.

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