Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Gilder: Don’t Buy AI Stocks, Do This Instead

Dear Fellow Investor,

I've been investing in technology for over 40 years.

And I've learned one thing…

The BIGGEST money gets made right before everyone realizes what's happening.
Not after.

My name is George Gilder.

In 1991, I predicted smartphones would change the world.

In 1994, I said streaming video would destroy Blockbuster.

In 1996, I called Amazon's dominance when it was "just a bookstore."

People thought I was nuts.

But early investors who listened?

  • Apple: 249,900% since IPO
  • Netflix: 112,700% from going public
  • Amazon: 216,100% since IPO

Now I'm seeing something that could be BIGGER than all of them.

The Trump administration just secured a $200 billion investment in a new computing technology.

It's called wafer-scale processing.

And my research suggests it could make today's AI data centers obsolete.

Three companies are leading the charge by building what I call the "Trillion Dollar Triangle" capable of:

  • Processing speeds up to 100X faster than current systems
  • Using 90% less energy consumption
  • Eliminating the need for massive data centers

This isn't theoretical.

It's already working in real-world applications.

And Wall Street is still asleep at the wheel.

>>Get the three company names before the crowd catches on <<

To the future,

George Gilder
Editor, Gilder’s Technology Report


 
 
 
 
 
 

Today's Bonus Story

When Insider Selling Is a Good Thing: 2 Stocks to Watch

By Thomas Hughes. Posted: 3/23/2026.

Waste Management garbage truck collecting bins in suburban neighborhood, reflecting steady dividend growth and service demand.

Key Points

  • Waste Management insiders sold roughly $25 million in stock after shares hit an all-time high in early 2026, but institutional accumulation and a growing dividend keep the long-term outlook bullish.
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals faces heavier insider and institutional selling, though analysts see roughly 25% upside driven by the commercial ramp of Olezarsen.
  • Both stocks have pulled back from recent highs, potentially creating entry points for investors willing to look past short-term selling pressure.
  • Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company

Insider selling can be a positive signal when company insiders are simply taking profits in stocks that still have increasingly bullish outlooks. In this article one stock is a solid, cash-producing dividend-growth machine, while the other is a commercial-stage biopharma with forecasts for double-digit growth. In both cases, shares have pulled back from early-2026 highs—driven in part by insider selling—creating potential entry points for new investors. Entry points are opening as a result.

Waste Management Doesn't Waste Time: Growth and Dividends in 2026

Waste Management (NYSE: WM) rose roughly 25% from its 2025 low to set a new all-time high in early 2026. That peak prompted several insiders — including the CEO, CFO, CAO, COO and several VPs — to sell shares. While that activity capped some gains in Q1, it is unlikely to change the longer-term outlook: insiders own only 0.18% of the company and sales totaled less than $25 million, while broader bullish drivers remain in place.

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Institutional activity shows accumulation over the trailing 12-month (TTM) period, with buying ramping in 2025 and sustaining into 2026. Institutions own about 80% of the stock and have been net accumulators for three years without significant distribution quarters. The company's earnings and capital-return outlook suggests this trend can continue.

Analysts are also bullish. There are 25 tracked ratings for 2026, and coverage has increased on a TTM basis, providing support and a price tailwind for the shares.

Sentiment is firming: the consensus rating sits near Moderate Buy and is edging toward Strong Buy, while the price-target trend is upward. Consensus models show roughly 10% upside as of late March, but analyst trends skew toward the high end of targets, and that level would be enough to reach a new all-time high.

WM stock chart displaying a recent pullback after the stock hit an all-time high.

The dividend is another reason to own the stock. Waste Management pays a market-beating ~1.65% yield in early 2026, the payout ratio is a sustainable ~56% of earnings, and the company raises the distribution annually. At its current pace, Waste Management is on track for potential inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats index by the end of the decade — an event that typically increases buy-and-hold ownership, reduces volatility, and supports longer-term price appreciation.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals: A Cautious Outlook for a Potential Blockbuster

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: IONS) is an RNA-focused biopharma with multiple marketed products, but two matter most. Spinraza, sold through a partner, has delivered blockbuster sales that are now in decline. The other, wholly owned Olezarsen, is expected by many analysts to see peak sales above $2 billion; several analysts consider that $2 billion forecast conservative, and price targets have been rising accordingly.

Insider selling at Ionis resembles the pattern at Waste Management in Q1 2026, but with a key difference: Ionis insiders also sold heavily through 2025, and institutional investors compounded the pressure. Institutions own more than 90% of the shares, and they were net sellers on a TTM basis — selling in three of four quarters in 2025 and continuing at a rapid pace into Q1 2026 as they took profits.

Analysts largely offset that selling. Institutions have taken profits after the stock rallied more than 100% from its 2025 low, but the analyst consensus is a Moderate Buy from 21 analysts, with coverage and sentiment both firming and price targets trending higher. The consensus points to about 25% upside by year-end, with the highest analyst targets adding roughly another 10% beyond that.

IONS stock chart displaying a pullback on recent insider selling.

Ionis' growth outlook is the primary reason investors remain interested. The company is forecast to sustain a high-20% growth rate well into the next decade, reach sustained profitability in 2028, and improve profitability thereafter. Long-term projections imply a valuation multiple of roughly 7X the 2035 forecast, which would allow for substantial upside — the shares could more than double and still look inexpensive at that multiple. If Olezarsen's potential is understated and the pipeline delivers additional approvals, the upside could be materially higher. Ionis has several candidates progressing toward near- and mid-term commercialization.


Exclusive Story

A New Regulatory Blow Could Change Tesla's Outlook

Reported by Sam Quirke. Date Posted: 3/23/2026.

Tesla electric vehicle driving through city traffic, reflecting autonomy concerns and regulatory scrutiny around self-driving technology.

Key Points

  • Tesla is still trying to broaden its story beyond electric vehicles, but federal scrutiny of Full Self-Driving is keeping that narrative under pressure.
  • The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has escalated a visibility-focused Full Self-Driving investigation to an engineering analysis, a step that can precede a recall.
  • With shares recently around $370, the stock’s sensitivity to negative headlines is elevated, especially with limited near-term company catalysts.
  • Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company

As highlighted previously by MarketBeat, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been working to shift the narrative around its business over recent months.

While the company remains a dominant force in electric vehicles, investors have increasingly been asked to view it as something much broader—a leader in artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy, and robotics.

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There had been signs that this narrative was gaining traction. However, last week's update from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has thrown a significant wrench into that story, at least for now.

A Deeper Probe Raises the Stakes

Although Tesla met the March 9 deadline to submit detailed data on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, regulatory scrutiny has intensified. Last week, the NHTSA upgraded a separate investigation into FSD's ability to handle reduced-visibility conditions—like sun glare and fog—to an engineering analysis covering more than 3.2 million vehicles, a step that often precedes a recall.

Rather than a clean bill of health, regulators have stepped up the review because of concerns about Tesla's camera-based system and its performance in challenging conditions. While the company has so far avoided a recall, the escalation signals regulators remain unsatisfied and adds material uncertainty around one of Tesla's core technologies.

Why This Matters for the Stock

This is more than another regulatory hurdle. FSD sits at the center of Tesla's long-term valuation story: the company's ambitions for robotaxis, autonomous fleets, and AI-driven services depend on successfully deploying and scaling this technology. If progress slows or regulatory barriers rise, the timelines for those opportunities could be pushed out.

A large portion of Tesla's premium valuation has been tied to these future avenues of growth. Investors have been willing to look past near-term volatility in the EV business because of the upside from autonomy and AI. If that pillar comes under fresh pressure, however, investors are forced to reassess — shifting their focus from when these opportunities will materialize to how certain they actually are.

Bad Timing for a Stock Already Under Pressure

Last week's update landed at a fragile moment for the stock. Shares currently trade around $370, down more than 25% from December highs and firmly entrenched in a downtrend. The shares have recorded a series of lower lows in recent weeks and are back near levels last seen in late 2021.

That's a setback for investors who were growing excited about Tesla's pivot from a pure EV maker to a broader AI and robotics story. The shift had begun to rebuild enthusiasm, but the latest regulatory development threatens to undermine that progress.

Recent analyst updates underscore the risk. BNP Paribas issued an Underperform rating in early March with a $280 price target. Against recent support around $370, that target implies roughly 25% additional downside if the narrative continues to weaken.

A Lack of Near-Term Catalysts

Another headwind is the lack of an immediate catalyst to shift sentiment. Tesla's next earnings report is about a month away, leaving a window in which the stock is unlikely to receive major positive updates from management. That vacuum can amplify the impact of negative headlines, such as regulatory escalations.

Without a clear reason for investors to re-enter, downside momentum can build—especially if broader market conditions remain uncertain. Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns are already weighing on equities, and high-multiple names like Tesla tend to be more sensitive to shifts in risk appetite.

What to Expect Next

Looking ahead, failure to satisfy regulators could become more than a short-term setback. It represents a potential crack in Tesla's long-term growth narrative at a time when the stock is already under pressure.

The investigation's outcome remains uncertain, and the added scrutiny is likely to act as an overhang in the coming weeks. If Tesla resolves regulators' concerns and shows clear progress on its autonomy roadmap, sentiment could recover quickly. For now, however, the balance of risks appears tilted to the downside, and shares could weaken further before improving.


 
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