Wednesday, March 4, 2026

War, What is it Good For?

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War, What is it Good For?

Dr. Mark Skousen, Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club

Dr. Mark Skousen

"There never was a good war, or a bad peace" - Benjamin Franklin

"War is always bearish on money - and a good time to buy." - Philip Fisher (p. 109)

The war in the Middle East is in full swing, and Wall Street and your pocketbook are feeling the effects. Oil is suddenly over $80 a barrel. Gasoline prices are rising, stocks are falling, and even Treasury securities and gold, often viewed as hedges during a geo-political crisis, are showing weakness.

Is there no place to hide?

I have a diversified portfolio, but almost every investment is down this week, except for a few energy and retail stocks. What to do?

The advice from the most successful and seasoned investors is "Don't panic." As Sir John Templeton said, "If you are a long-term investor, you will view a bear market as an opportunity to make money" (p. 108, "The Maxims of Wall Street").

See additional quotes on what to do during times of war at the bottom of this column.

Good News and Bad News

The initial response to the death of Iran's tyrannical leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was elation by most Iranians and Americans. Finally, President Trump had the guts to take on the greatest terrorist threat in the world. But such an attack is not without risks.

Despite the killing of over 40 top leaders, Iran's military is far from subdued. The US/Israeli attacks have provoked a violent and chaotic response from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard that has engulfed the Middle East.

The Iranian military are now attacking their own Arab neighbors - Dubai, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, where there are US bases. Many civilians have been killed. Flights have been cancelled. Supply chains have been disrupted.

An Iranian hacker group called Handala has used X to threaten the West with cyberattacks in retaliation for the recent strikes.

There are 30,000 to 40,000 US troops stationed in the region, with more on the way, and there are already casualties.

Clearly the war in the Middle East is escalating and it may last longer than you expect. As LPL Financial's Head of Macro Strategy Kristian Kerr commented, "The more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact."

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Channeling Ben Franklin

As we celebrate the 250th anniversary of our nation's founding, and the beginning of our own War of Independence, let us draw upon the wisdom of our founding fathers.

In May last year, President Trump brought into the Oval Office the famous Houdon bust of Franklin to display during his discussions on foreign policy with his Secretary of War.

Trump in Oval Office
 

Photo Source: Fox News, May 25, 2025

Was he channeling America's greatest diplomat, who famously said, "There never was a good war, or a bad peace"?

Benjamin Franklin supported wholeheartedly the American Revolution, prophesying as early as 1771 that "the seeds are sown of total disunion" between the colonies and the British motherland.

Yet, at the end of the war, he saw the terrible consequences of long conflict. "When will men be convinced that even successful wars do at length become misfortunes to those who unjustly commerce them, and who triumphed blindly in their success, not seeing all its consequences. There is so little good gained, and so much mischief done generally by wars that I wish the imprudence of undertaking them was more evident to princes."

He personally witnessed the loss of lives, property, friendships, and even bitter divisiveness within his own family (his son William remained a British loyalist).

In short, war should be the last resort, not the first. Sometimes war is inevitable, but let's no sugar coat it. As General Patton said, "War is hell."

While We Wait for Hostilities to Subside...

We can only hope that this war will end soon, and Iran will be replaced by leaders who seek to be members of the civilized world and bring about peace, prosperity and liberty for its citizens and neighbors. It's a tall order.

Next week, on March 9, we also celebrate the 250th anniversary of the publication of "The Wealth of Nations," by Adam Smith, the father of free-market capitalism. His book is a declaration of economic independence. His "system of natural liberty" should be followed by all nations. If they do, Adam Smith make a great promise:

"Little else is necessary to go from the lowest barbarism to the highest level of opulence than peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice."

Amen!

Wall Street and our portfolios will recover and move to new heights when we too return to "peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice."

More Advice on Investing During War and Bear Markets

While the markets continue to struggle, I suggest you draw upon "The Maxims of Wall Street," which has just been updated with the second printing of the 12th edition. The stories and quotations from the great investors will offer you a great deal of comfort during these troubled times, such as these quotes:

"Nothing is more difficult than holding onto your stocks in a bear market." - Mike Turner (p. 109)

"War is always bearish on money - and a good time to buy." - Philip Fisher (p. 109)

"The seasoned investor buys his stocks when they are priced low, holds them for the long-pull rise and takes in-between dips and slumps in his stride." - J. Paul Getty (p. 136)

"Good investing is simple: buy a good asset at a good price and hold it for a good long time." - Adrian Day (p. 197)

"In a bear market, the winner is he who loses the least!" - Richard Russell (p. 108)

The latest edition of "The Maxims of Wall Street" is available for only $22 per copy ($12 for additional copies) at www.skousenbooks.com. Check out who I dedicated the book to!

Good investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

P.S. The market doesn't wait.

And neither should you.

If you'd like to receive timely insights and important updates from Liberty Through Wealth delivered straight to your phone, I encourage you to sign up for our free text alerts today.

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