That one waterway carries 20% of the world's oil. Oil prices are surging. Analysts warn this could be three times worse than the 1973 OPEC embargo.
Back then, oil quadrupled. Inflation skyrocketed. And gold went from $35 to $455 an ounce. A 1,200% gain.
Now it's happening again.
Strikes across Iran. Retaliation across the Gulf. 150 ships stranded. Oil surging. Markets rattled.
And gold? Already at $5,408. Up 64% last year. Up 23% in 2026.
J.P. Morgan just raised their target to $6,300.
The pattern is the same every time.
1973 oil crisis- gold surged over 100% in a single year.
2008 financial crisis- stocks lost half their value. Gold climbed 25%.
2025- war, tariffs, inflation fears. Gold climbed 64%.
Gold doesn't just survive crises. It thrives in them.
The question isn't whether gold will survive this one.
The question is whether your savings will.
If you have $250,000 or more in retirement or your portfolio, and it's sitting in stocks, bonds, and dollars… It's exposed to exactly the kind of event unfolding right now.
Gold isn't. Protect your nest egg with our free guide, "Trump's Gold Bull Run".
KB Home: A Best-in-Class Builder Trapped in a Market It Can't Control
Posted On Mar 25, 2026 by Chris Markoch
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) has been building homes since 1957. It has survived recessions, rate cycles, housing crashes, and a global pandemic. It has built more than 700,000 homes. It ranks No. 1 in customer satisfaction among national homebuilders for the fifth consecutive year. Its absorption rate per community per month consistently outpaces the peer group average, and it has returned more than $1.9 billion to shareholders since 2021. By nearly every operational measure, KB Home is what a well-run homebuilder looks like.
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None of that saved the stock on Tuesday.
The Numbers Were Hard to Dismiss
After reporting first-quarter fiscal 2026 results after the close, KBH fell roughly 5% in after-hours trading. The report missed on both lines, and the guidance did nothing to inspire confidence. The stock, which had already been sliding since mid-February, dropped to the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart — with the RSI sitting in the low 30s, hovering near oversold territory but not yet triggering a technical bounce. The post-market print of $50.88 puts the stock meaningfully below both its 20-day moving average and its lower band, suggesting the near-term price action remains bearish unless the macro backdrop changes.
The headline numbers were difficult to dismiss. According to the company’s investor presentation, housing revenues for the quarter were $1.07 billion, down 23% from $1.39 billion a year ago. Deliveries fell 14% to 2,370 homes. Average selling price dropped 10% to $452,100 from $500,700 — a number that captures, as clearly as any single data point can, what KB Home has had to do to keep buyers engaged: cut prices. Homebuilding operating income margin collapsed from 9.2% to 3.1%. The housing gross profit margin fell from 20.2% to 15.3%. SG&A as a percent of revenues crept up to 12.2%, compared to 11.0% a year ago, because fixed costs don’t shrink when volumes do.
The Rate Problem No Builder Can Solve
To understand why this happened, you have to look at who KB Home builds for. According to the company’s own Q1 2026 buyer profile, roughly 72% of its customers are first-time or first move-up buyers — primarily Millennials and Gen Z buyers in their peak household-formation years.
The company’s earnings report frames this as a long-term opportunity, and it is. There are 150 million people in those two demographic cohorts, representing the single largest wave of potential homebuyers in a generation. The problem is that this same group is the most sensitive to mortgage rates. When a 30-year fixed mortgage costs 6.5%, the math on a $452,000 home simply doesn’t work for a large slice of that audience. KB Home cannot fix that. No homebuilder can.
Where KB Home Still Wins
What KB Home can do — and what the data suggests it does better than most — is manage the variables within its control. Its Built to Order model, which allows buyers to select floor plans, lot sizes, square footage, and finishes based on what they can actually afford, is not just a marketing differentiator. It is a structural hedge against exactly this kind of affordability pressure.
Approximately 65% of KB Home’s communities offer floor plans under 1,600 square feet — smaller homes that preserve livability while bringing down base prices. The company’s monthly absorption rate of 3.5 net orders per community in Q1 still exceeded the peer group average of 3.1, as it has in every year the company has tracked it, going back to 2021. In a bad market, KB Home is still outpacing its competitors on the metric that matters most for a builder’s near-term health.
A Bright Spot in the Orders Data
The net orders number for the quarter — 2,846, up 3% year over year — is the one piece of data that deserves more attention than it likely received. Net order value came in at $1.36 billion, essentially flat with the prior year’s $1.35 billion. These are not the numbers of a company losing customers. They are the numbers of a company with customers who want to buy but are being stretched by the financing environment. That is a solvable problem, but not one KB Home can solve alone.
The Backlog Is the Real Watch Item
The backlog tells a harder story. At $1.70 billion, it is down 23% from $2.20 billion a year ago and down sharply from $2.79 billion two years prior. Backlog is the pipeline — it is the future revenue that has already been contracted. Its decline means the company is not yet replenishing the book fast enough relative to what it is delivering. The expanded community count, which grew to 276 from 255 a year ago, is the lever management is pulling to address this. The company expects to reach peak community count in Q2, right as the spring selling season hits its stride. If mortgage rates cooperate — even modestly — that timing could matter.
The Balance Sheet Holds Up
On the balance sheet, there is little to criticize. Total liquidity stands at approximately $1.2 billion, including nearly $1 billion in revolving credit availability. The debt-to-capital ratio came in at 32.9%, right in line with management’s long-term target of around 30%.
The company repurchased 800,000 shares for $50 million in the quarter and maintained its dividend — the longest uninterrupted dividend streak in the homebuilding industry. Book value per share grew 8% year over year to $61.53, while the stock now trades at roughly 86 cents on the dollar of that book value. For a company that has grown book value from $4.88 per share in 2012 to $61.53 today, that discount reflects the current moment, not the underlying business.
The Chart Confirms the Caution
The technical picture reinforces the near-term caution. KBH peaked near $70 in the fall, has trended steadily lower through the first quarter of 2026, and the earnings miss accelerates that move. The RSI is approaching oversold levels, but oversold conditions in a deteriorating fundamental environment can persist longer than they should. Without a catalyst — either a meaningful rate decline or a string of stabilizing quarters — the path of least resistance remains lower.
Bottom Line
KB Home did not create the problem it is navigating. It built a better mousetrap. The market just isn’t hungry right now.
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