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Axon Got Caught in the SaaS Crash—Its Earnings Say That Was a Mistake
Reported by Leo Miller. Posted: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Axon shares surged after Q4 earnings, snapping a months-long selloff that had cut the stock roughly in half from its all-time high.
- The broader SaaS panic dragged Axon down alongside pure software names, but the company's hardware-integrated model may make that comparison a poor one.
- Analysts still see meaningful upside even after trimming their price targets post-report.
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After being battered in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, shares of defense company Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ: AXON) rallied sharply. Following its Q4 financial results on Feb. 24, Axon shares jumped nearly 18% the next day.
Axon hit an all-time high closing price near $871 last August; before the latest earnings report the stock had fallen about 50% from that peak.
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Even after the recent spike, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish on the name.
So, what drove Axon's steep sell-off, and are the concerns about the company justified?
Axon's Sky-High P/E, SaaS Fears Come to Roost
Axon's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio peaked near 130x in August, which contributed to its decline. The company was then further hit by the 2026 "SaaSpocalypse," accelerating the sell-off.
Before the latest release, Axon shares were down more than 20% in 2026. Several of its largest single-day declines coincided with steep drops across the software sector, suggesting AI-displacement fears affected Axon as well.
However, that broad sell-off seems misplaced for Axon; investors appear to be indiscriminately selling software-related names instead of assessing AI disruption risk on a case-by-case basis.
Why Axon's Hardware-to-Software Flywheel Provides Protection From AI
Axon benefits from a reality unlikely to change soon: law enforcement relies on physical intervention. AI cannot physically restrain or arrest someone, which limits AI-disruption risk among Axon's primary customers — police and other agencies.
Axon does have a substantial software business that could theoretically face AI risk, but hardware remains central to its strategy. Its flagship product, the Taser, is a physical device Axon has developed for more than three decades — not something an AI startup can replicate through "vibe-coding."
Taser sales grew 32% in Q4 2025 and accounted for one-third of Axon's full-year revenue, leaving a large portion of the business at minimal risk from AI disruption.
Axon's software is deeply integrated with its hardware. Its body cameras record video that is stored on its digital evidence management platform, producing recurring subscription revenue. Other software products largely rely on the data those devices generate.
For example, Draft One generates initial incident-report drafts from body-camera audio, saving officers time compared with fully manual report writing and allowing them to focus more on preventing and investigating crime.
To disrupt Axon's software, competitors would likely need to displace its body-camera ecosystem as well. An AI startup could conceivably build cameras and layer software on top, but that would require agencies to replace established systems, retrain staff, and risk scrutiny if evidence handling suffers. Axon's long-standing trust and familiarity with agencies make that a tall order.
As Axon collects more device-derived data, the effectiveness and scope of its software should improve, giving the company a meaningful head start over potential competitors.
Analysts Eye +20% Upside After Axon's Big Beats
Axon's latest earnings confirm the strength of its business. The firm beat expectations on sales and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), with revenue up 39%. Future contracted bookings rose 43% to $14.4 billion — the value of signed contracts Axon has yet to fulfill. While not guaranteed revenue, that backlog is sizable relative to the $2.8 billion Axon generated in 2025.
Axon also posted a net revenue retention rate of 125%, meaning existing customers increased spending by 25% year-over-year — a sign its offerings are delivering growing value.
By 2028, Axon is targeting revenue of $6 billion, implying roughly 29% annual growth over the next three years. The company also aims to expand adjusted EBITDA margin by 250 basis points to 28%.
The MarketBeat consensus price target for Axon sits near $763, implying about 45% upside. After the report, analysts lowered targets; the average of updated targets is around $654, still implying roughly 25% upside. Those reductions largely reflect adjustments after the stock's precipitous fall, not a negative read on the company's results.
Overall, Axon's outlook appears promising, and AI-disruption fears around the company seem overblown.
SJM Surges 9%, But Hostess Weakness Clouds Outlook
Reported by Chris Markoch. Posted: 3/3/2026.
Key Points
- J.M. Smucker stock rallied after a double earnings beat and steady guidance, supported by improving revenue trends and strong free cash flow.
- Ongoing pressures from commodity costs, tariffs, and a struggling Hostess segment create uncertainty about the pace of a full turnaround.
- Technical signals suggest the recent pullback is likely consolidation, but investors are watching key support levels for confirmation of the trend.
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The J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) delivered a strong earnings report on a day that favored consumer staples stocks. SJM stock jumped more than 9% after the company twice beat expectations and maintained its outlook for full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS).
The headline results masked a sizable GAAP loss driven by nearly $1 billion in non-cash charges tied to its Sweet Baked Snacks — largely the Hostess business acquired in 2023. Segment sales fell 19% and segment profit plunged about 78%.
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Investors should assess what constitutes a "normal" move for this stock. A 9% one-day change is unusual in either direction, prompting the question of whether this signals a trend or is just a short-term reaction.
The Argument for Growth
In its last two quarters, J.M. Smucker reported year-over-year revenue growth. Two quarters don't prove a long-term trend, but it is an encouraging sign that could indicate consumers are under less pressure. Looking ahead, Smucker faces easier year-over-year comparisons in fiscal 2027.
The company's balance sheet is also improving. Free cash flow (FCF) was $487 million, which has allowed the company to continue paying dividends, buy back shares, and maintain investment-grade ratings.
Smucker plans to pay down about $500 million of debt annually. At that pace, the company would be below 3x leverage by the end of fiscal 2027.
Analysts have also turned bullish on SJM stock. The highest price target of $135 represents roughly a 20% gain from the March 2 closing price.
Institutional buyers continue to outnumber sellers — a trend that has persisted for more than three years.
The Argument for Caution
Smucker has faced higher commodity costs and tariffs, which have pressured margins. Those headwinds remain, and early 2026 developments suggest they are unlikely to abate quickly.
Still, the company beat expectations and issued full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $8.75 to $9.25, which assumes an adjusted gross margin of about 35%.
A larger concern is the Sweet Baked Snacks business. Smucker said a fire at its Emporia plant will reduce Q4 net sales by about $25 million. To support the segment's turnaround, the company plans to cut product variations by roughly 25% to simplify operations. Even so, management does not expect the turnaround to be complete soon.
The Impact of GLP-1 Drugs Is Not Conclusive
Given Smucker's portfolio of jams, jellies and Hostess snacks, investors are understandably concerned about the potential impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on future revenue and earnings. Several large food companies, including PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP), have cited GLP-1s as a factor driving a shift toward healthier snacks.
Because the company sells many indulgent items, GLP-1 drugs could create structural pressure on demand over time, particularly for the Hostess brand.
However, management says company-level data isolating that impact is not yet available, so it has not quantified a direct sales hit from GLP-1 drugs.
Why Is SJM Stock Pulling Back?
The pullback appears to be a natural reaction to a sharp advance that left shares overbought and approaching clear resistance. After a strong run into the 116–120 zone, the most recent red candle and upper wick indicate buyers are losing conviction at higher prices while short-term traders lock in gains.
The price had pushed above the upper Bollinger Band — a classic sign of an overextended move — and is now slipping back inside the bands. That kind of mean reversion is typical after a fast rally. Volume expanded on the way up, which often precedes profit-taking as momentum traders exit into strength.
Despite the pullback, the broader technical backdrop remains constructive. SJM still trades above key moving averages and the MACD is positive, suggesting the intermediate trend is intact even as upside momentum cools. As long as the stock holds roughly the 109–111 area on a closing basis, the action can be viewed as normal consolidation following a breakout.
The higher-probability path from here is a period of choppy, sideways-to-lower trading while the stock digests gains. A controlled drift toward support on lighter selling volume would keep the bullish thesis intact. A more concerning sign would be a decisive, heavy-volume breakdown below 109, which would suggest this pullback is evolving into a deeper correction rather than a routine pause.
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