Happy Sunday to you,
About 10 years ago, I was at a Christmas dinner with my wife at her aunt's house.
As we entered the house, I noticed "Cookie," a morbidly obese cat, struggling against gravity as it climbed the stairs.
Cookie, according to the aunt, was just tired from having company over all day.
No, ma'am. That spherical cat was fat. Everyone knew it.
Astonishingly, everyone in the house acted surprised when Cookie went to the farm upstate at a rather young age.
It's truly amazing how someone can stare at a blue sky and call it red. The mental gymnastics necessary to rewrite reality would make anyone topheavy.
Here we are, near all-time highs, with 1,000 warning signs from the VIX to leaders becoming laggards.
Yet, I keep seeing analysts putting out near-term price targets for the S&P 500 10% above current levels.
Surely, their homes must be filled with diabetic pets whom they deem healthy. How else could they make such claims in the face of the obvious?
I'm not calling for the market to crash tomorrow.
But if you aren't exercising at least a modicum of caution, then I've got some news for you Cookie…
Jordan Schneir
Editorial Director, TheoTRADE
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Don Kaufman:1342% Profit on a Butterfly (I Finally Did It)
I paid 35 cents for a butterfly three days ago.
This afternoon I closed it for $5.05.
That's 1342% profit on a zero-day-to-expiration SPX butterfly trade.
I've been chasing four-digit percentage gains for years. Sending out text alerts with triple digits, always wondering what it would feel like to add that extra number.
Now I know.
This is what legendary trades actually feel like - and why most traders never see them.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Don's article.
Brandon Chapman: Why a VIX Vertical at 21 Was Only Worth $1.20
I closed out a VIX 20/25 call vertical Friday morning for $1.50. I bought it for $0.71.
That works out to a 111% return on a hedge that did its job while the market sold off.
But the exit almost did not happen. Thursday, with VIX above 21, the spread was only pricing at $1.20.
That puzzles most traders. If you own the 20 strike and VIX is at 21.20, the spread has $1.20 of intrinsic value. You would expect to sell it for more than that.
You could not. The spread needed VIX to reach approximately 22 before my $1.50 limit order could fill.
Understanding why that gap exists changes how you time exits on every vertical spread you trade.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Brandon's article.
Gianni Di Poce: How I Spot Market Bottoms Before the Crowd
Hey trader,
When will we bottom? The question everyone has.
I've warned folks for weeks about rising risks in the stock market.
The wrong sectors led us higher while the right ones faded.
Now the crowd is finally noticing the pattern.
Look, I've seen this exact setup play out dozens of times. So, naturally, I've learned how to get ahead of the turn.
Today, I'll take you through the specific signal I watch to identify when selling is about to exhaust itself.
Because if you know what to look for, this correction becomes the best entry point of 2026.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Gianni's article.
Jeff Bierman: When the Levee Breaks
I drive my kids to school in Chicago every morning. The route home takes me 15 minutes through the city because they changed the bridges.
It used to take five.
I have been making this drive for years. Something changed recently.
There are fewer cars on the road and fewer Uber drivers in sight.
More people are walking now. Young, old, all ages, taking public transit and riding bikes to avoid spending money they do not have.
I see it every single day. The consumer is breaking in real time, and you can spot it from a car window if you pay attention.
This week I spent five days teaching members how to spot changes in market leadership. I referenced Led Zeppelin's "When the Levee Breaks" because that is exactly where we are.
The cracks are forming and the water is rising. The levee has not failed yet, but the pressure is building from underneath.
This weekend, I want to show you the clues I am watching.
By the time the headlines catch up, it will be too late.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Jeff's article.
Blake Young: Chain Required
If you live in a climate with real winters, you have probably seen a sign like this: "Chains Required, 4WD with Snow Tires OK."
This signage exists for the safety of travelers during winter driving conditions. For those unfamiliar with chains, here is a quick explanation.
Chains can be metal links, mesh, or textured cables that wrap around tires and cut through snow to provide traction. They can mean the difference between reaching your destination slowly and not being able to move at all.
The alternatives without chains are not pleasant. You could find yourself spinning your tires in place, or moving with no ability to stop or turn.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Blake's article.
Tony Rago: The Bracket That Betrayed Me
Friday morning, I took three back-to-back losses on micros before my Golden Setup session even started. Every direction call was correct.
Price came down, hit my stop, and came right back to my entry each time.
"The direction call was good on my part, but there was just too much vol."
The ES was running 15-point ATR candles. You cannot approach a tape like that the same way you approach a normal session.
"You have to have some kind of guardrails before you go start pushing buttons."
My bracket has an auto break-even feature that has worked for years. When a trade moves five points in my favor, the stop slides to even.
This week, that feature turned on me.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Tony's article.
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