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Atlassian Has Been Crushed—But the Setup Into Earnings Is Shifting
Reported by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 1/24/2026.
Article Highlights
- Atlassian has been aggressively sold to multi-year lows, despite generating its most revenue ever.
- The extreme pessimism has pushed momentum into oversold territory, but there are already signs of a reversal.
- With some analysts calling for as much as 75% upside from here, Atlassian looks like a diamond in the rough.
Shares of tech stock Atlassian Corp (NASDAQ: TEAM) are trading around $130 after starting the year above $160. With the S&P 500 up more than 1% over the same period, it's been a brutal start to the year for investors.
That may not be surprising: the stock is down more than 60% from a year ago and recently hit fresh multi-year lows. Atlassian was a serial laggard in 2025, and the weakness so far this month makes it the worst-performing large-cap stock of 2026 to date.
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See the full story on this opportunity now.On the surface, that kind of move looks like a clear vote of no confidence and is enough for many investors to steer clear. For contrarian investors, however, this setup warrants a closer look. As we head into late January, with Atlassian's next earnings report due in less than two weeks, here are three reasons this could be a buying opportunity.
Reason #1: Wall Street Sees Upside in Atlassian Stock
One clear signal that sentiment may be out of sync with fundamentals is the sell-side stance. Over the past three weeks, multiple firms have reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings on Atlassian. Mizuho, which named the stock one of its favorite picks heading into 2026, recently issued an Outperform rating and a $225 price target. Citigroup made a similar move with a Buy rating and a $210 target, while Piper Sandler and BTIG Research also struck a bullish tone.
The common thread across these updates is that the market has become overly negative about the impact of AI agents and automation on Atlassian's growth prospects. Analysts largely agree these concerns are being misinterpreted and exaggerated: AI is more likely to augment Atlassian's platform than to undermine its core value proposition. With some analysts implying as much as 75% upside, the potential is hard to ignore despite the weak chart.
Reason #2: Oversold Readings Suggest Atlassian Is Stabilizing
From a technical standpoint, Atlassian's chart looks ugly—but it is starting to show signs of stabilization. Earlier this month, the stock's relative strength index (RSI) fell as low as 19, placing it firmly in oversold territory. Since then, the RSI has moved back above the sub-30 danger zone and is trending higher, a classic sign that selling pressure is easing.
This week's price action supports that view. Atlassian has risen roughly 10% over the past three sessions, a notable shift after weeks of relentless selling. The stock is also trading near long-term support levels, roughly the same zone where selling pressure abated three years ago. It may be early to declare a full trend reversal, but these signals often mark a transition from selling to consolidation.
Reason #3: Atlassian's Fundamentals Still Look Solid
Perhaps the most compelling argument against the market's reaction is that Atlassian's fundamentals remain intact. The company has continued to regularly top analyst expectations, and its most recent earnings report delivered its highest-ever revenue — not what you'd expect from a business in terminal decline.
There are also signs that Atlassian's own AI-driven initiatives are beginning to gain traction, helping counter fears it will be left behind in an increasingly automated software landscape. Meanwhile, valuation has improved significantly after a year of heavy selling, leaving the stock looking more attractive than it has in recent memory.
None of this removes risk. Atlassian has been a tough stock to own, and confidence won't return overnight. But with the risk/reward profile looking favorable, it's reasonable to think the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario. If the company can once again top analyst expectations in two weeks, it could be enough to kick off a recovery rally.
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